Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1032 PM EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
high pressure will move east of the region overnight and
Tuesday...bringing warm and more humid conditions on Tuesday. A
cold front will approach the region from the west Tuesday night
and cross the region on Wednesday. New high pressure will then
build toward the region from the Great Lakes Wednesday night and
Near term /through Tuesday/...
1030 PM update...
no changes needed at this time other than to tweak hrly T values.
Cold front is just south of Hudson Bay and will slide toward County Warning Area this morning
as next WV rides up along front and shoves it east.
Previous discussion below...
Smoke from western can and thin cirrus/cs kept temperatures a couple of degree f
cooler across northern areas this afternoon...but still a nice day overall.
Skies should remain clear with a light sswrly breeze overnight. The only
xcptn may be along the immediate coast late tonight into Erly Tuesday morning
as increasing surface-bl flow from the S could allow a shallow band of
oceanic St to reach especially coastal downeast areas...so we mention
becoming partly cloudy over this portion of the forecast area during this tm period. Overnight
lows will remain at or just above 60 degree f over most lctns...xcpt the
immediate coast and very hi terrain.
Most if not all of the St over downeast areas should burn off by
middle morning with morning sunshine. Otherwise...sunny skies will give way
to increasing cldnss and surface humidity as dewpoints increase in the
afternoon as a lead shortwave from the Ohio Valley approaches the forecast area. This system will
likely bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to far northwest portions of the forecast area late
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Hi temperatures Tuesday will show a more inverted S to
north look due to more srly component surface winds from the Gulf of ME
cooling the southern third of the forecast area compared to this aftn's hi temperatures.
Otherwise...more general showers and possible elevated cape thunderstorms
will spread west to east from qb late Tuesday night as the main progressive
northern br shortwave from central can approaches the forecast area. By 12z Wednesday... the eastern
edge of the showers should be crossing into northwest New Brunswick...then extend SW
through east central and western downeast portions of the forecast area. Despite this
progression...most sig rainfall will occur over the northwest third of the forecast area
from late Tuesday afternoon through 12z Wednesday. Overnight lows will even be warmer
Tuesday night with high dewpoints along with S to north xpnsn of low cldnss and
fog across all of the forecast area late Tuesday night.
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday/...
a cold front swings through the state on Wednesday bringing a chance
of showers and thunderstorms to eastern Maine. There will likely be
coastal fog and stratus until the front moves into the downeast
region. Quantitative precipitation forecast values of up to one quarter of an inch will fall with
this frontal passage.
Dry and continued Summer like weather will persist into Thursday
with less humid conditions as weak high pressure builds into
northern New England.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
northwest flow aloft develops late this week. The next significant
cold front is projected for Sunday into Monday with a progressive
and positively tilted upper trough sliding through Quebec and the
Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/...
near term: VFR conditions will continue for all sites initially.
Looks increasingly likely that kbhb will be affected by marine
layer early Tuesday morn, with IFR conditions expected for a time
before clearing after 12z. Some marine influence cannot be ruled
out at kbgr early Tuesday morn, but not convinced enough to include in
00z taf. All sites should be VFR much of Tue, then drop to MVFR
and IFR Tuesday night.
Short term: MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible on Wednesday
with showers and thunderstorms. IFR ceilings and visibilities will be
possible Wednesday morning at kbhb in stratus and fog.
near term: no hdlns at this time. Srly winds and waves will increase later
Tuesday through Tuesday night...but look to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria at this time. Went
with about 90 percent of ww3 WV guidance for forecast WV heights through the
Short term: no headlines are expected during this time period.