Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1249 am EDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014
weak high pressure from the southwest will slowly build toward
the region tonight then move east on Wednesday. An upper level
disturbance from the Great Lakes will approach on Thursday.
Near term /through today/...
1245 am update...no significant changes needed with this update as
the forecast is in good shape. Made slight adjustments to sky, winds,
and temperatures for current trends.
drier and much cooler tonight with fog the main concern and then
another chance for showers on Wednesday. More on this below.
Scattered showers across the northern 3rd of the County Warning Area will be
ending near sunset as an upper trough swings across the region.
Clouds will dissipate as well as high pressure works in from the west.
Winds will die off and west/clearing skies and cool temperatures, fog
looks to be a good bet throughout much of the County Warning Area especially where
rain fell over the last 24 hours. Decided to carry areas of fog in
the forecast through early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will
drop back into the middle and upper 40s across the north and west
west/low lying areas seeing around 40 and perhaps upper 30s for areas
such as Estcourt Station. Central and downeast areas will drop
back to a range of 55-55 degrees.
A disturbance in the upper levels will move across the region
Wednesday afternoon. 12z upper air did show moisture tucked in from
925-850mbs and there does appear to be enough forcing in the middle
levels to support some showers mainly across the northwest and
western areas. Soundings do go unstable somewhat but instability is
not all that impressive and sb/mu convective available potential energy remain <500 joules/kg.
Therefore, left the mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast and
carried 30% for the precipitation chances. Coordinated west/gyx and nerfc on
quantitative precipitation forecast west/amounts being < 0.10" areal basin average. Afternoon high
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s for just about the
entire County Warning Area west/the exception for the coast as an onshore wind
developing in the afternoon could cool things down some.
Short term /tonight through Friday/...
a nearly stationary upper level low pressure will be positioned near
the Quebec/Ontario border between James Bay and the Great Lakes
through early Thursday. The low then moves northeast and weakens.
As this happens, a shortwave rotating around the low will move
northeast through the area on Thursday. Thus, Thursday will
feature the best chance of afternoon showers/storms of the
Wednesday through Friday timeframe, with a 40 to 60 percent chance
Thursday (best chance north/northwest areas), and a 20 to 30 percent chance
Wednesday and Friday. Can't rule out a few strong storms Thursday,
but not Worth putting in any enhanced wording at this point.
Another concern will be somewhat moist onshore flow leading to
morning low clouds and fog especially near the coast each morning.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
the latest long range model runs are in better agreement with the 12z GFS
establishing a southwesterly flow of western Atlantic moisture into
the area Sat and through the end of the period. Scattered showers
and diurnal thunderstorm activity are expected early in the next week
with intermittent showers lingering across most areas through the end
of the period. Partly cloudy skies early each day should result in
near seasonal temperatures across the region.
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
near term: VFR this evening. Conditions will drop to MVFR and
possibly IFR for a time later tonight into early Wednesday morning
for all the terminals due to fog. The fog will lift quickly
Wednesday morning west/VFR returning for the day.
Short term: generally VFR during the day and evening Wednesday
night through Friday outside of localized convection. Late night
and early morning hours, may see some low clouds and fog bringing
conditions to MVFR/IFR, especially near the coast and into Bangor.
near term: will drop the Small Craft Advisory for the intra-coastal waters. Seas
still running 5 to 6 feet on the coastal waters...and they should
slowly subside later tonight. Fog will develop overnight into
early Wednesday morning west/visibilities dropping down to 1nm or less at
times. Pretty quiet on the waters for Wednesday west/south-southeast winds 10 kts
or less and seas down to 2-3 feet.
Short term: seas and winds remaining below small craft levels
Wednesday night through Friday with light onshore flow.
is is now the 3rd wettest July on record at both Bangor
and Caribou. More details are available at pwmpnscar or nous41
kcar. The information is also available on the top of our web Page
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 am EDT early
this morning for anz050-051.