Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1235 PM EDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014
a cold front will cross northern Maine Wednesday and then stall
over central Maine by Wednesday evening. Low pressure will track
along the front Wednesday night and drag a strong cold front
through the region Thursday. Strong Canadian high pressure builds across
the region later Thursday into Saturday.&&
Near term /through tonight/...
1230pm update... clouds continue to plague mostly northern
portions of the forecast area this afternoon associated with frontal
boundary. These clouds have been ever so slowly progressing south
and east this morning and afternoon. Updated forecast for current
conditions and trends.
the cold front will enter the Saint John valley this morning and
progress towards Houlton by midday before stalling and lifting
back north as low pressure moving along the front approaches
tonight. The front will be mostly dry this morning but will spread
a lot of cloud cover that will persist over northern zones all
day. This will limit highs to the upper 50s in The Crown of Maine
while sunshine allows upper 60s to near 70f for Bangor and down
east zones. A few light showers will probably break out in
northern Aroostook this afternoon...but with amounts of a
hundredth of an inch...will limit probability of precipitation to around 20 percent as
little impact is anticipated. The rain for tonight will also be
limited to northern Aroostook County where amounts under a tenth
an inch are forecast...mostly for the Saint John valley. Most of the
energy with this system will be well to the north of the state.
The low will drag a strong cold front into northern zones by early
Thursday morning with the season's coldest air to date. Elsewhere...some
low clouds and fog are expected to move into Hancock and southern
Penobscot counties with the southerly flow ahead of the front tonight.
Lows tonight will be in the 40s across the region.
Short term /Thursday through Friday/...
the coldest air mass since April will descend upon northern New
England Thursday and Friday. Highs will struggle to reach 50
degrees in the St John River Valley on Thursday and temperatures will
warm a few degrees on Friday as the surface high moves offshore.
Low temperatures Friday morning will be at or below freezing north of a
line from Greenville to Topsfield. A widespread frost and/or
freeze will occur.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
warmer air advects northward this weekend for above normal temperatures. A
frontal boundary may bring showers to northern Maine Saturday night
into Sunday. A strong cold front is forecast to move through Maine
next Monday with a chance of showers.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
near term: IFR conditions from hul to bgr/bhb will burn off early
this morning. MVFR ceilings will arrive in fve this morning and move
south to car/pqi by mid-morning. This ceilings will lift towards
midday. MVFR conditions return to fve tonight and IFR returns to
bhb/bgr later tonight.
Short term: VFR conditions are expected at all taf sites.
near term: have issued an Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas tonight due to
long period south swell from Edouard.
Short term: no headlines are expected.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 8 PM this evening
to 8 am EDT Thursday for anz050-051.