Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1242 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will crest over the area today then slide to the
south tonight and Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will
approach on Sunday and cross the area Sunday night.
&&

Near term /through tonight/...
1240 PM update...made some minor changes to temperature, sky
cover, and wind grids through tonight. Main changes were to
decrease cloud cover for tonight as we will just be seeing some
high clouds late at night. Also lowered overnight lows a bit for
interior downeast locals where winds will drop off with mainly
clear skies most of the night.

Previous discussion... an upper trough with its axis near Cape
Breton will continue east and into the northwest Atlantic today. Ridging
in the wake of the trough will build across the region today and
tonight. A surface ridge across the eastern Great Lakes early this
morning builds across the area today and slowly moves east of the
area tonight. A cold front will begin to organize across the
western Quebec and the western Great Lakes late tonight.

Today will be a bright and sunny day across the region with low
humidity and a light north breeze. Temperatures region-wide will
be top out close to 70f. Clear much of tonight with some increase
in high clouds overnight. Temperatures will be comfortably cool
with lows mostly in the middle 40s to low 50s. Some of the normally
colder valleys may get down to around 40f. A bit of patchy River
Valley fog will be possible late tonight.

Hurricane Cristobal will pass east of Newfoundland this morning and
transition to a strong extra-tropical as it tracks across the far
North Atlantic to the south and east of Greenland. The only impact
will be long period southeast swell that will begin to subside
today.

&&

Short term /Saturday through Sunday/...
high pressure will move to our south on Saturday. Moisture
circulating into the area behind the high and ahead of a weak
trough of low pressure approaching from the west will bring
increasing clouds. Some showers will be possible Saturday
afternoon, mainly across the north. Saturday night will remain
cloudy and a bit more humid across the area. Forecast guidance has
been consistent in showing an area of showers tracking across the
north on Sunday. Synoptic features are very weak including a weak
upper level trough and a very weak surface front and wave of low
pressure. Rainfall on Sunday seems to be mostly associated with
tropical moisture circulating across the region in combination
with surface frontal convergence. Rainfall amounts between a
quarter and a half inch across the north appear most likely at
this time.

&&

Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
showers may shift south Sunday afternoon as the front pushes down
to the coast. The weak wave of low pressure will slide to our
east Monday as the front pushes offshore. However, some moisture
lingering across the state will result in variable cloudiness and
a continued chance for some scattered showers. Weak ridging
combined with a south winds ahead of a new trough of low pressure
moving through central Canada will bring partial sunshine on
Tuesday. Some scattered showers will be possible in western areas
late in the day ahead of an approaching surface trough of low
pressure. The trough will move through Tuesday night with a chance
for showers followed by partial clearing on Wednesday. A trough of
low pressure will be well to our north on Thursday. Dry air
circulating in from the west will bring a sunny to partly cloudy
day on Thursday with a gusty breeze and mild temperatures.

&&

Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
near term: pockets of MVFR from kmlt south early this
morning...otherwise VFR at all terminals for the next 24 hours.

Short term: VFR conditions on Saturday will give way to MVFR
conditions across the north Saturday night. MVFR to IFR conditions
are likely Sunday into Sunday night. Conditions will improve to VFR
on Monday and remain VFR on Tuesday.

&&

Marine...
near term: a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas will remain
in effect today for the residual long period swell from
Cristobal. A high surf advisory will remain in effect until middle
afternoon today just beyond the time of high tide.

Short term: winds may approach 25 knots in gusts Saturday night and
Sunday from southwesterly winds north of high pressure off the
coast. Winds should then be below Small Craft Advisory Sunday through early next
week as a weak front pushes off the coast.

&&

Car watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM EDT this
afternoon for anz050>052.

&&

$$
Near term...cb/fitzsimmons
short term...Bloomer
long term...Bloomer
aviation...cb/fitzsimmons/Bloomer
marine...cb/fitzsimmons/Bloomer

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations