Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
844 am EST Thursday Dec 12 2013
an Arctic cold front will push offshore this morning and will be
followed by high pressure. Low pressure will cross the region
late tonight and Friday morning and will be followed by another
push of cold Arctic air for Friday night and Saturday. Low
pressure will approach from the south Sunday.&&
Near term /through tonight/...
8:45 am update...skies are clear throughout the area so made skies
sunny this morning then increasing clouds this afternoon with the
clipper approaching. Rest of the forecast remains on track.
bitter cold Arctic air continues to filter into the area this
morning with wind chills less than -20f in northern Aroostook
through mid-morning. Will continue with the Wind Chill Advisory
through 10am. Highs will only reach the low single digits in
northern Aroostook with low teens for Bangor and interior down
east. Coastal regions will reach the middle to upper teens. Winds
will gust to nearly 20 miles per hour this morning...but will decrease this
afternoon as a transient ridge of high pressure builds. A few
flurries are possible due to moisture streaming from the St
Lawrence in northern Aroostook. Temperatures will drop off quickly
this evening with light winds and clear skies and lows will
probably be reached by midnight as clouds increase with a clipper
system arriving from the Great Lakes region. The lows will be
generally minus 5 to minus 10 north and zero to five above for
Bangor and interior down east. Coastal regions will measure upper
single digits to low teens. The clipper system will bring light
overrunning snow after midnight...mostly in the northern half of
the forecast area with an inch possible in the western mountains
Short term /Friday through Saturday/...
a shortwave trough and reinforcing Arctic cold front will cross
northern New England Friday with some light snow in the morning and
scattered snow showers in the afternoon. Although the quantitative precipitation forecast looks
very light the atmosphere will be quite efficient at squeezing out
every last drop of moisture so local snow accumulation of an inch
is possible across northern Maine and in the western mountains.
Clouds and a slightly modified air mass ahead of the front will
cause temperatures to be not quite as cold as today with highs 5 to 15
across the north and into the l/M 20s across downeast areas where
the front does not push in until later in the day. The Arctic air
pours back into the region Friday night with the center of the high
back across Ontario Friday evening and into southwest Quebec by 12z
Friday. As the high center remains west of the area into Friday morning
there will likely be enough wind for some low wind chill concerns
across northern Maine late Friday night into Sat morning with wind
chills of 20 to 35 below. A wind chill will very likely be needed
down the Road and wind chills may come close to warning levels in
the far north for a few hours toward daybreak Saturday. The high
settles into northern Maine Saturday with sunshine but cold
weather. An increase in clouds is expected late in the day across
the southern zones as low pressure begins to organize along the
Carolina coast. Highs Saturday will be in the single digits
across the north and in the teens for downeast areas.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
attention turns to the the south Sat night as low pressure
deepens as it track off the middle Atlantic coast. There remains
some timing difference amongst the various operational
models...but they all take the center of the low to the south and
east of Nova Scotia Sunday. This would keep the heaviest of the
precipitation east of the area. Any slight shift to the west and
heavy snow would still be possible across the area. At this time
it appears likely that northern and eastern Maine will see some
snow with the best chance of advisory or warning criteria snow
across downeast areas. As the low pulls away from the region later
Sun night into Monday morning it will be windy with scattered snow
showers...especially across the north. High pressure builds in
later Monday and Monday night with dry and cold weather. A clipper
system may bring some snow or snow showers to the area Tuesday.
The models hint at a secondary that might try to develop along
the coast that could enhance the snowfall. It looks generally dry
and cold in the wake of this system for the middle part of next
Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/...
near term: a few periods of MVFR into early afternoon north of hul due
to ceilings. Bgr and bhb will be VFR. MVFR conditions will return
north of hul after midnight due to light snow and ceilings. Tempo IFR
is possible due to snow for fve and car by late night.
Short term: MVFR and pockets of IFR in shsn Friday. Mostly VFR Friday
night into Sat night with conditions to deteriorate to IFR/low end
MVFR from south to north in snow late Sat night into sun. MVFR in
scattered -snsh at the northern terminals Monday and VFR at kbgr and kbhb.
near term: the current Small Craft Advisory will end towards midday and another
will likely be required later tonight as transient high pressure
pulls away and winds pick up again. Freezing spray is expected
with the very cold temperatures and the winds.
Short term: another period of Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to develop Friday
afternoon and continue into Friday night as another cold air mass
overspreads the waters. The wind will diminish and the seas subside
to sub advisory Sat as high pressure crests over the waters. Another
period of Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop later Sat night and
continue into Monday as low press passes east of the waters.
the temperature dropped below zero at 211 am this
morning at Caribou for the first time this winter. On average
(1981-2010 normals) the first sub-zero temperature is observed at
Caribou on December 13th. Please see the latest public information
statement at pwmpnscar or nous41 kcar for more details.
The record low high temperature for today at Caribou is 2 above
set in 1977. The forecast high temperature is 3 above...so we may
come close to the record...but overall the air mass aloft is not
at record cold levels for this time of year so a new record is not
ME...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for mez002-
Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for mez001-003.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for anz050>052.