Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
858 am EDT Friday Mar 14 2014
low pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight while high
pressure builds east. High pressure crosses the region early
Friday. Low pressure approaches Friday night then crosses northern
Near term /through tonight/...
9:00 am update...lowered temperatures a couple degrees early this
morning. Otherwise forecast remains on track.
Orgnl disc: some places are experiencing radiational cooling this
pre- dawn as winds have become light and variable over some valleys
under clear skies.
Otherwise...after a sunny start Friday morning with The Crossing of a surface ridge...
clouds will increase fairly rapidly from the west this afternoon as a large
low pressure system from the upper Great Lakes begins to approach. Light ovrrng
precipitation...in the form of snow will then move into msly the north half of
the forecast area from qb prov beginning this evening...then after a brief
break...a second pulse of light snow will arrive from qb very late Friday
night just prior to daybreak. Between these two pulses of light
snfl... accumulations will range from 1 to 3 inches across the north
portion of the forecast area...with lesser or even none across the S half.
After a very chilly start this morning...temperatures will recover into the
20s most lctns by late afternoon...which is still below normal for hi
temperatures this tm of season. Overnight lows will likely be within a degree
or two of afternoon hi temperatures Erly this evening...then begin to slowly rise
Friday night with cloud cover light snfl and increasing low level warm advcn.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
overrunning snow will end Saturday morning and low pressure will
move just north of the area during Saturday. A strong upper trough
will catch up to the low as it moves out of Ontario during
Saturday and create a rather dynamic situation. The low will
strengthen and precipitation is now expected most of the day for
the forecast area. Warm boundary layer conditions for down east
means rain...but wet snow should continue north of Millinocket and
Houlton through the day. Snowfall is expected to be less than 2
inches except possibly north of Caribou and towards the Saint John
valley. Have reduced highs due to the precipitation with middle to upper 30s
expected...except some low 40s on the coast. The cold air arrives
Saturday night and will create low level instability to h850 with
possibility of some snow squalls north of Houlton during the
night. The cold air will be in place for Sunday with highs in the
morning and very windy west-northwest winds gusting to 35 miles per hour.
Forecast highs will be upper teens to low 20s north and middle to
upper 20s for down east and Bangor. Temperatures plummet again to
subzero readings Sunday night with wind chills possibly meeting
advisory criteria in northern zones.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
high pressure and cold conditions are expected through the period.
A series of low pressure systems will pass well to the south...but
there is just enough uncertainty on whether they will brush the
coast that chance probability of precipitation are in place for Monday night along the
coast. The ridge is prognosticated to crest over the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday and allow low pressure to move towards the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. This system will bring mixed
precipitation with rain most likely in the southern half of the
forecast area and snow in northern zones.
Aviation /13z Friday through Tuesday/...
near term: VFR expeceted all taf sites today...with northern taf sites lowering
to IFR in light snfl tonight...while downeast sites transition to MVFR
Short term: mostly IFR for all sites Saturday. Snow squalls
possible Saturday night north of hul. Bgr and bhb will become VFR
later Saturday evening...while snow showers and tempo IFR
conditions will end north of hul late Saturday night. VFR likely
Sunday into Tuesday for all sites. Strong northwest winds with some gusts
to 35 miles per hour will occur Sunday.
near term: buoy observation still show that winds have decreased over the inner
Bay-Harbor mz052 but both winds and waves remain above Small Craft Advisory criteria
over outer mzs050-051...so we extend the Small Craft Advisory there until about 10 am.
Orgnl disc...both the current Small Craft Advisory for winds and seas and the advection
for fzg spy should end later this morning. This will only be replaced
by another Small Craft Advisory for tonight as srly winds increase ahead of low pressure
expeceted to track well north of the waters. Kept close to ww3 WV guidance
for the near term.
Short term: Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Saturday into Sunday night. A
few gusts could approach 35 kts. Freezing spray returns to the
forecast later Sunday into Monday. Another Small Craft Advisory may be required
Monday night as low pressure passes south.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 am EDT Sunday