Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
327 am EDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014
high pressure will settle southeast of the region into tonight. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday and cross
the region from northwest to southeast later Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night.
Near term /through tonight/...
a warm Summer day coming up!
Some patchy valley fog possible this morning and along the
immediate coast as seen on the latest GOES east satellite imagery.
Most of the stratus and fog hanging along Rockland and offshore
at this time. The latest hrrr shows the stratus and fog to creep into the
coastal regions this morning and hang on into middle morning.
The latest observation and satellite showed that the hrrr is too fast.
Therefore backed off on keeping the stratus and fog beyond 12z.
This will need to be monitored this morning.
Other than that, high pressure will ridge across the region today
west/temperatures warming through the column right up through 500mbs.
This will translate down to the blyr for a very warm day west/a good
deal of sunshine. Temperatures are expected to be at least 3 to 5
degrees warmer than they were on Monday. We are talking middle to
possibly upper 80s away from the coast as a SW breeze kicks in.
The coastal areas will be cooler as the south-southwest breeze will keep
things cooler, but still able to hit around 80f. Humidity will be
on the increase this afternoon into tonight. Skies for the most
part will stay clear west/some stratus and fog forming again and
pushing a bit further inland into the interior downeast. Stayed
close to the daycrew's assessment of fog development for the
Bangor and coastal region. Overnight lows will be very mild
running in the middle to upper 60s.
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
a vigorous cold front will sweep across northern and eastern Maine
Wednesday afternoon. SBCAPE values are forecast to be in the
1500-2000 j/kg range with 90 dcm height falls in a 15 hour time
frame. Expect a qcls in the middle afternoon through evening with
discrete cells possible ahead of the line. Will continue the
enhanced severe weather wording in the forecast.
Much cooler and drier air Ushers into the region on Thursday behind
the cold front. Temperatures will be 10 to 12 degrees cooler on
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
a broad upper level trough will be over eastern Canada and the
northeast U.S. By the end of the week. A brief zonal flow to start
next week is replaced by strongly southwest flow by Monday as an
unseasonably strong upper trough sets up over the Great Lakes.
This results in an unsettled pattern.
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
near term: generally VFR west/the threat for IFR for kbhb this
morning. This will be monitored through this morning. There is
potential for MVFR/IFR for both kbgr and kbhb later tonight as a
south-southwest flow bringing low level moisture northward.
Short term: MVFR ceilings and visibilities are likely Wednesday afternoon and evening at all
taf sites in thunderstorms as a cold front sweeps across Maine. VFR
conditions return for Wednesday night and Thursday.
near term: no headlines. Decided to mention a southerly swell
today into this evening as is evident on the observation this morning.
Wave heights will be around 3 feet creeping to 4 feet tonight mainly
for the outer waters. The wave guidance including the Swan
guidance has been overdoing The Heights by a foot. Based on this,
decided to cut back The Heights by a foot into tonight. Winds will
gradually pick up later today into tonight but still well below 20
Short term: Small Craft Advisory may be needed Wednesday afternoon and evening
with wave heights 4-6 feet and wind gusts around 25 knots.