Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
650 am EDT Sat Sep 5 2015
a ridge of high pressure will build over the area through the
weekend. A frontal boundary will approach on Monday and stall
across the region on Tuesday.
Near term /through tonight/...
650 am update...
forecast remains essentially unchanged. Calm winds and sunny skies can be
expected this morning. Winds increase slightly from the west this
afternoon but still expecting above normal temperatures today.
Previous discussion below...
Surface hipres has taken up residence over County Warning Area tonight but will build south
this afternoon. Clear skies and calm winds will be the rule into the morning hours
with potential for patchy fog in deeper valley locales just before
sunrise. Hwvr, dry low-levels will serve to prevent much in the way of
fog development this morning with dewpoint depressions running between 2-5
As high shifts south of the state tda, return flow will draw in warmer h9
temperatures this afternoon. Maximum temperatures expected to be some 5-10 degrees above
normal today. Most locales will likely see 80f under full sun.
590dm ridge is currently centered across New York state into western New England.
500 mb heights will very slowly begin to lower today and tonight but not enough to
result in any clds, precipitation or cool temperatures. Dewpoints increase tonight into
the 50s starting a return to more humid weather. Would not be surprised to
see patchy fog development toward Sun morning as low-level moisture increases but
have left out of grids for the time-being with the caveat being
stronger blyr winds.
Short term /Sunday through Monday/...
a strong ridge of high pressure will be anchored in the northeast
over the weekend allowing warm and humid middle Summer like weather.
Sunday will be sunny with just a few patchy clouds possible over the
far north. This will give way to a mostly clear and unseasonably
warm night Sunday night. Monday will continue to be very warm but
will be breezy as the gradient between surface high pressure pushing
to the south and a trough of low pressure to the north creates a
west southwesterly breeze. A weak shortwave will bring a chance for
some spotty showers or thunderstorms Monday afternoon with the best
chance for showers in western or central areas.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
we will be on the northern edge of the warm ridge of high pressure
Monday night into Tuesday. Moisture over the northern edge of this
ridge will bring a mostly cloudy day Tuesday with a continued chance
for some showers. The air will remain very warm and humid. By
Wednesday, low pressure over central Canada will be pulling an
occluded front across our area bringing a better chance for showers.
Drier and slightly cooler weather should follow for Thursday. Our
attention late in the weak then focuses on a storm system
possibly approaching from the southwest later Friday into Saturday
to bring a chance for rain.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
near term: VFR expected next 24 hours. Confidence is low on any
patchy fog developing at any one terminal given dry low level
airmass. However...locally variable conditions could occur with
any patchy fog through sunrise.
Short term: patchy fog may result in locally IFR conditions at some
sites Sunday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
Sunday and Monday. Conditions may lower to MVFR Monday night into
Wednesday as a frontal boundary brings lower clouds and the chance
for showers over the area.
near term: winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria through the weekend.
Short term: southwesterly winds may approach Small Craft Advisory on Monday.
Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory through
the middle of next week.