Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1212 am EDT Sat Oct 25 2014
low pressure just south of the Gulf of Maine will move northeast
just south of Nova Scotia overnight. High pressure will briefly
build across the region on Saturday. Another low from central
Canada will cross the region on Sunday.
Near term /through today/...
update: current forecast for overnight hours is still on track so
Orgnl disc: an upper low continues its track across the North
Atlantic. At this time the satellite and observations show a
southeast of the SW tip of Nova Scotia. The associated occluded
front wrapped around the low across northern New Brunswick into northern
Maine. The initialization of the GFS/NAM/Gem/ECMWF all are in good
agreement with the analysis. At the start of the near term all
member remain in good agreement with the low moving to south of
central Nova Scotia. A weak ridge of higher pressure will begin to
build into the SW coast of Maine. Wrap around precipitation will continue
across northern Maine with the remnants of the occluded front as it
begins to pull to the east. By Sat morning the low will be east into
the western Canadian Maritimes...the ridge will build across
Maine. There will be a new low over Hudson Bay...with a frontal
trough extended south through the central Great Lakes. By the end
of the period...the new low moves south to James Bay...the frontal
trough moves east into the eastern Great Lakes region.
Loaded a blend of GFS/ECMWF/Gem/NAM through the period for
maximum/min temperatures...hrly T/dp/wnd/sky/pop. Loaded hpcqpf...added 15
percent to winds for gusts over land...25 percent over water.
Short term /tonight through 6 PM Sunday/...
another round of showers will affect the region Saturday night and
Sunday as upper low pressure crosses southern Canada/northern New
England. Northern Maine has the best chances of seeing rain, but
feel much of the state will get at least a few showers as the
aforementioned system passes overhead. The low will pull away Sunday
night and Monday, so the showers will taper off through Sunday
night. Monday will be dry outside of a few lingering showers across
the north early. Temperatures will be cool enough Sunday night that
a rain/snow mix is possible over the higher terrain. Temperatures
will be near normal for late October, with highs ranging from the
upper 40s to middle 50s, and overnight lows in the middle 30s to middle 40s.
Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/...
we'll see a brief dry spell early in the period as high pressure
builds across the eastern Continental U.S.. then another low pressure system
will bring additional chances for rain by midweek as it crosses
southern Canada. Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the
week, with southern areas possibly topping out in the 60s. Just how
warm depends on the aforementioned low pressure system and its
associated cold front, which looks to cross the Pine Tree state
sometime Wednesday afternoon/evening. After frontal passage,
Thursday will be a bit cooler but dry. Yet another frontal system
approaches from the west on Friday, with a chance of showers, mainly
in the afternoon.
Aviation /04z Saturday through Wednesday/...
near term: IFR conditions for bhb...bgr...and hul with light rain
becoming MVFR overnight...VFR conditions in light rain across
car...pqi...and f becoming MVFR tomorrow morning. Expecting some
patchy fog overnight...visibility should remain in the 4 to 6 mile
range. VFR conditions for bgr and bhb tomorrow...expect scattered
conditions across other sites by middle morning tomorrow...becoming
broken late morning through end of the period.
Short term: northern terminals as low pressure moves across
southern Canada and northern New England and brings rain to the
area. Expect borderline VFR/MVFR conditions at the southern
terminals during this time. Conditions will improve gradually late
Sunday through Sunday night as the low moves away, with MVFR
ceilings north and VFR south. All sites will become VFR by 00z
Tue, but another rain event will bring the threat for MVFR
near term: a Small Craft Advisory remian in effect for the outer
waters until 2 am.
Orgnl disc...winds have subsided below Small Craft Advisory criteria...however wave
heights remain above 5 feet. Extended the Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas
through 11 PM tonight. Seas will drop to 5 feet or less by that
Short term: a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed from
late Saturday night through at least Monday. Low pressure will
cross north of the waters on Sunday, allowing southwest winds to
gust to around 25 knots. Once this feature GOES by, cold air
advection on the backside will result in northwest winds gusting
to nearly 30 knots.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT early this morning for