Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
342 PM EDT Thursday Jul 10 2014
high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes region
tonight...cross the region Friday into Saturday and move offshore
Near term /through Friday/...
high pressure will build in from the west tonight and crest over
New England Friday. Expect near zero probability of precipitation this period have used a
model blend to populate this group. No quantitative precipitation forecast is expected. For wind
grids have used the all blend. For the temperature grids have used
the consensus all for minimum temperature and the bias corrected
consensus all for maximum temperature along with three hour and
dew point grids.
Short term /Friday night through Sunday/...
a slightly muggier airmass moves in on Saturday, but expecting
conditions to remain dry with highs generally in the low to middle
80s. Clouds increase Saturday night into Sunday, with shower and
thunderstorm chances returning for Sunday afternoon inland. Not
expecting any severe storms for Sunday afternoon, as the best
dynamics will still be well off to our west.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
a potent upper level low pressure near the Great Lakes Monday
kicks northeast through Ontario and into Quebec from Monday to
Wednesday. A fair amount of model disagreement on how exactly the
upper level low and associated surface cold front progress.
However, generally we are looking for warm and humid conditions
Monday and Tuesday with a chance of storms. There may be some
stronger storms Monday and Tuesday if the upper level low passes
close enough to our northwest as it moves from the Great Lakes to
Quebec. Drier and cooler pattern by later Wednesday and into
Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/...
near term: expect VFR conditions through Friday.
Short term: generally VFR for Saturday. Potential morning MVFR and
IFR Sunday morning for Bangor and Bar Harbor with moister onshore
flow. Mainly VFR for Sunday afternoon, although worse conditions
are expected in any of the scattered showers and storms that could
develop. More widespread MVFR and IFR Monday and Tuesday with
increased shower and storm chances.
near term: for winds have used the consensus all for sustained
winds. For waves: primary wave system is long period wave
generated southerly fetch from Gulf of Maine southward less
several days. This fetch has weakened over the last 12 hours but a
3 foot/8 second group remains. Winds have now fallen well below 10
knots so wind wave is not a factor and longer period background
swell is well below 1 foot. Have used the near shore wave model to
Short term: onshore southerly winds increase late Sunday into
Monday to just below small craft levels. A brief period of small
craft winds is possible Tuesday just ahead of the cold front.
Waves will gradually build from less than 3 feet on Sunday to
above 5 feet for Tuesday and Wednesday.