Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
558 am EST Thursday Nov 26 2015
strong high pressure over Nova Scotia will move slowly east today.
A cold front will move into northern Maine late in the day Friday
and sweep across the downeast region Friday evening. High pressure
builds back into the region Saturday. Another cold front will
cross the area Sunday and will be followed by strong high pressure
Near term /through tonight/...
update...adjusted hourly temperatures/dew points based on current
strong high pressure will remain east of Nova Scotia today. A
broad south to southwest flow is expected today between the high
to our east and a strong cold front slowly approaching from the
Great Lakes. Expect clouds to be on the increase today as
southerly flow transports increasing moisture off the Gulf of
Maine. High temperatures today will climb to above normal levels
with highs ranging from the lower 40s north and middle to upper 40s
Tonight will be a cloudy and unseasonably mild night across
the entire area. The cloudy skies and light southwest winds will
keep temperatures well above freezing tonight. A few showers are
possible across the St John valley late tonight in advance of the
approaching cold front. Low temperatures are only expected to
range from the middle to upper 30s across the north and lower 40s
central and down east.
Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...
a cold front west of the Saint Lawrence River at 12z Friday morning
will push into northern Maine by 00z Sat. Scattered showers across
far northern Maine will likely develop into a steadier rain during
the afternoon, especially across the Saint John valley and Allagash.
Temperatures will be mild enough during the day that there will be
no concerns for any frozen precipitation. In fact, highs Friday
will get well into the 40s as far north as the Saint John valley
with lower 50s in the Bangor area and along the coast. The cold
front quickly sweeps across the County Warning Area Friday evening with a period of
rain south to the coast by late in the evening. Expect that the
rain will end as a brief period of snow in some spots from Baxter
State Park north to the Saint John valley and up to an inch of
snow can't be ruled out. As temperatures drop below freezing overnight
expect the bigger concern will be for any untreated surfaces to
flash freeze. Saturday will be a dry and much colder day with
little to no rebound in temperatures as many areas from
Caribou/Presque Isle remain below freezing. A bit more of a
rebound toward the coast where highs will top out near 40 degrees.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
a shortwave and cold front will cross the area late sun with
isolated snow showers possible across far northern Maine. Strong
high pressure settles into the area Sun night and lows will likely
drop into the single digits in the broad valleys in the north.
Lowered temperatures significantly and also undercut all of the
model guidance by a wide margin. Monday will be dry and cold with
the next system to approach on Tuesday with an increase in clouds
and the chance of rain and snow showers during the afternoon. The
air mass should moderate enough that most of the precipitation
will be in the form of rain Tuesday night into early Wednesday downeast in
SW flow ahead of an upper trough. A mix of rain and snow will be
possible across central and northern Maine. A cold front crosses
the region Wednesday with the precipitation to wind down during the
day. Significant snow accumulation is unlikely with this system.
Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
near term: mainly VFR today with scattered MVFR ceilings expected this
morning especially khul/kpqi. Widespread MVFR and scattered IFR ceilings
expected to develop tonight as low level moisture increases in
advance of a slow moving cold front.
Short term: MVFR ceilings are expected across the region Friday into
Friday night with IFR at times. Conditions will improve to VFR late
Friday night, but MVFR may hold on at kbgr and kbhb until around 12z
Sat. Predominately VFR Sat through Mon, but a period of MVFR is
possible at the northern terminals from kpqi to kfve Sun afternoon
and early evening in possible -shsn.
near term: wind/seas will increase today between high pressure
east of Nova Scotia and a slow moving cold front from the west. A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect from this afternoon through
Short term: a Small Craft Advisory will likely be required into
Sat with the wind to diminish and the seas to subside to below
Small Craft Advisory levels by Sat night into sun. A short period of Small Craft Advisory level wind
in gusts possible Sun night, but high pressure builds over the waters
with lighter wind Monday.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EST Friday for