Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1122 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2015
low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine into the open
Atlantic this evening. Canadian high pressure will approach
overnight and cross the region Sunday. Low pressure from central
Canada will move east on Monday to a position just north of the
region Monday night.
Near term /through Sunday night/...
modified temperatures a bit early tonight. Also, adjusted sky cover to go
mostly cloudy east and mostly clear west...with a trend toward
clearing overnight. Lowered dew points a bit too.
The position of the west-southwest to east-northeast surface high ridge axis over northern/western portions by
12z sun should allow for shallow decoupling of surface winds and lower
overnight lows over Broad River valleys of northern and central portions of the forecast area
very late tonight. Otherwise...the rest of forecast area will maintain a light north
to northwest breeze...keeping temperatures up somewhat then what could occur if
winds were near calm across the entire region.
After a chilly start...sun should be sunny with temperatures recovering at
least several degree f warmer than today. A SW breeze and increasing
cldnss late ahead of low pressure advcg east from central can should keep
overnight temperatures/low temperatures sig milder Sun night then tonight.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
a weak area of low pressure will track across southern Quebec on
Monday pushing a cold front across the region Monday night. Expect
mainly cloudy skies on Monday with a chance of snow and rain
showers. Some lingering snow and rain showers will continue
across northern areas into Monday evening followed by partial
clearing overnight. A secondary cold front will cross the region
Tuesday. Expect partly sunny skies across the north and mostly
sunny skies down east on Tuesday. High temperatures both Monday
and Tuesday will be in the middle to upper 30s north and low to middle
40s down east.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
high pressure will build east Tuesday night through Thursday. A
warm front will lift across the area later Thursday followed by a
cold front later Thursday night and into Friday. Expect a chance
of rain or snow showers later Thursday night and into Friday.
Another low may affect the area by next Saturday.
Aviation /03z Sunday through Thursday/...
near term: VFR expeceted all taf sites through the entire near term...
with brief MVFR clgs/visibilities possible at kbhb until about 6 PM this
Short term: MVFR conditions are possible Monday in rain/snow
showers. VFR is expected Tuesday through Thursday.
winds are diminishing a bit as high builds in. Cancelled Small
Craft Advisory for intracoastal waters but kept it up offshore
early this morning.
Near term: will continue with current Small Craft Advisory with the end tm at 2 PM sun
unchgd from the last update. WV heights have subsided a little from
late this morning...so we were able to go closer to ww3 WV guidance
for tonight and continue through Sun night. A period of light fzspy can be expeceted
late tonight and Erly Sun morning over mzs050 and mz052.
Short term: wind/seas could reach small craft levels Monday into
Tuesday. Winds/seas should then remain below small craft levels
through middle week.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for anz050-051.