Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
652 am EST Tuesday Jan 27 2015
strong low pressure south of Cape Cod this morning will move into
the Gulf of Maine this evening and across Nova Scotia Wednesday.
High pressure will build across the region Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. Low pressure will move across the Gulf of Maine Friday.
Near term /through tonight/...
update...heavy snow is spreading into down East Maine at this time. Reports
received thus far indicate from 3 to 6 inches of snow has fallen
along portions of the down East Coast so far this morning. We are
already seeing winds gusting to around 40 miles per hour along the coast as
well creating blizzard conditions. Made some minor adjustments to
hourly temperature grids otherwise no other changes to going
winter storm warnings remain up for northern and central areas with
a Blizzard Warning for all of interior and coastal down East Maine.
The latest msas analysis shows a 983 mb low pressure system about
150 miles south of Cape Cod. This low will lift slowly northeast
today and across southwest Nova Scotia late tonight. Latest radar
imagery shows the leading edge of the snow beginning to work north
into down East Maine as of the pre-dawn hours. Expect the snow to
continue to expand north across the region by later this morning.
The snow will become heavy at times today. As the low continues
to track off to the northeast today expect gusty northeast winds
to produce blowing and drifting snow with whiteout/blizzard
conditions expected especially across down east areas. Lighter
snow will continue into tonight but gusty north winds will
continue to result in blowing and drifting snow. Snowfall totals
through tonight will generally range from 6 to 10 inches across
northern areas with 12 to 18 inches across central and down east
areas...with some locally higher amounts are possible closer to
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
a double barreled area of low pressure consisting of the the deep
low associated with the Nor'easter and a second triple point low
will be found across Nova Scotia and the southern tip of Labrador
at 12z Wednesday. The lows will continue to pull away Wednesday as high
pressure over the Ohio Valley moves east. The high will crest over
New England by 12z Thursday and move off the eastern Seaboard during
the day Thursday. Low pressure will begin to approach from the west and
will move into western Quebec and western New York state by 00z Friday.
As far as the sensible weather GOES...we expect areas of light snow
Wednesday morning to wind down as the strong wind diminishes. There
will likely even be some breaks in the clouds by afternoon.
Temperatures Wednesday will be seasonable with highs from the upper
teens north to the middle 20s down east. It will be seasonable cold
Wednesday night and dry and seasonable Thursday with increasing clouds in the
afternoon in advance of the next weather system.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
an active weather pattern continues. The next low moves in from
the west Thursday night and deepens in the Gulf of Maine Friday. An inverted
trough will likely extend from the low back across eastern Maine
Friday. This storm has the potential to produce significant
snowfall...especially across the eastern half of the forecast
area...with lesser amounts to the west. It looks like once we are
done with the current storm that we could very well need another
round of winter storm watches for the Bangor and katahdin
regions east. The low pulls away Sat and should leave the area
dry and cold. The next system may bring the chance of yet more
snow by Monday....but there are model differences with some
solutions more suppressed and south of the region. Temperatures
are expected to drop to below normal levels for sun and Monday.
Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
near term: widespread LIFR/vlifr can be expected today at all
terminals in snow. Gusty northeast winds will result in
considerable blowing snow especially kbgr/kbhb terminals. IFR
conditions are expected tonight in snow.
Short term: MVFR with pockets of IFR early Wednesday morning should
gradually give way to VFR by afternoon. VFR Wednesday night and Thursday.
Conditions will likely lower to IFR and even vlifr Friday in snow.
Conditions should improve to VFR on Sat...except across the northern
terminals where MVFR is expected.
near term: a Storm Warning remains in effect into tonight. A
freezing spray advisory is also in effect through tonight for
moderate freezing spray. Visibility will be reduced to less than
1 nm through tonight in snow.
Short term: once the Storm Warning comes down a Small Craft Advisory
for the residual seas will likely be needed through around 00z Thursday.
Conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory levels Wednesday night through
early Friday. A gale is possible Friday night as low pressure pulls east of
a coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for the possibility of
minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide. High tide
occurs at 4 am this morning...430 PM this afternoon...and 5 am
the record snowfall for today, 1/27 at Bangor is 10.8"
set in 1963. This record has a high likelihood of being broken.
The record at Caribou is 9.9", set in 1963.
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 7 am EST Wednesday for mez001>004.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 am EST Wednesday for mez005-006-
Blizzard Warning until 4 am EST Wednesday for mez015>017-029-
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 am EST Wednesday for mez029-030.
Marine...Storm Warning until 1 am EST Wednesday for anz050>052.
Freezing spray advisory until 7 am EST Wednesday for