Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
702 am EDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015
high pressure builds today and Thursday. The high moves offshore
Friday and a cold front will approach from Quebec. High pressure
will return for the weekend.
Near term /through tonight/...
no change. May bump up lows tonight as high clouds will increase
later in the night.
the cold upper low is currently spinning over northern Aroostook
County with areas of drizzle and fog. The low will track eastward
into New Brunswick over the next several hours with drizzle ending
early this morning. Residual low level moisture will last through
much of the day...resulting in a cloudy day. Unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue...but will be significantly warmer than
Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. High
pressure builds tonight with clearing skies and light winds. This
raises the Prospect of a shallow inversion with patchy fog and
frost. Lows will be in the middle to upper 30s for most of the area.
Lows will be in the lower 40s for the coast and outer islands.
Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
dry weather expected Thursday/Thursday night with hipres shifting over the Canadian
Maritimes drg the day and allowing srly flow and warm air advection to kick in.
Warmest maximum temperatures on Thursday will be up across northern zones with downeast
remaining in the 60s due to onshore flow. Thursday night will likely feature fog
along coastal zones and possibly into downeast with onshore flow
advecting in under subsidence inversion.
Latest models are coming into better agreement with frontal passage by the end
of the short term. By 18z Friday frontal boundary looks to be poised to
cross international border. Instability and shear looks to be in
place to warrant mention of thunder in the afternoon/evening hours ahead of
front. Cold front looks to bisect County Warning Area by 00z Saturday and should mv well
offshore by end of the period. Cloud advection following frontal passage will lag
resulting in min temperatures by Sat morning ranging from the 50s across interior
downeast to the 40s across The Crown.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
surface hipres builds in quickly following frontal passage with moderating temperatures
through the weekend. Digging 500 mb trough will mv through Canadian prairie
provinces late in the weekend with ul ridging prognosticated to dominate
area weather through 12z Monday. Return flow draws in significant moisture
early in the week for appchg system to work on.
Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
near term: IFR conditions due to low clouds and drizzle will end
this morning...giving way to MVFR ceilings. These ceilings will lift to
VFR this afternoon. VFR conditions continue through tonight.
Short term: VFR expected through Friday morning. A cold front will
bring -shra/-tsra to terminals Friday afternoon and evening with
potential MVFR/IFR conditions. High pressure will bring VFR back
to terminals Sat morning.
near term: have ended the Small Craft Advisory as seas have fallen below criteria
and will remain below criteria through tonight.
Short term: conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria. Areas of fog possible Thursday night along coastal