Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
625 am EST Sat Mar 8 2014
a weak cold front will cross the region today. High pressure
builds tonight through Sunday night then a very weak disturbance
passes just south of the area on Monday.&&
Near term /through tonight/...
update 0615l: beefed up clouds and adjusted hrly temperatures per latest
conds and trends...
Previous disc: weak low pressure northwest of the area at this time west/ an attendant cold
front extending swwrd across the eastern Great Lakes... cloudy skies across
the northern 1/3 of the forecast area at this time west/ mainly clear skies across the
remaining southern 2/3. Radar returns also show a few possible -SW across
the far north at this time. The weak cold front is expected to push sewrd
across our forecast area this am then weaken/dissipate just S and east of the
area late today. Best clouds and precipitation chances will be focused across
the north though will continue to advertise just chance probability of precipitation west/ little if any
snow accums expected. Srly flow and clouds ahead of the front
keeping temperatures up across the north while lighter winds and clear skies
allowing temperatures to fall across our southern areas west/ coldest overnight low
temperatures likely focused across the S away from the coast. Temperatures will
remain on the mild side today though cold air advection will kick in later today on
brisk nwrly winds. This cold air advection will persist through tonight west/ another round
of cold but dry air to overspread the area once again. High temperatures
are expected to reach the middle 30s far northwest to the lower 40s near the
coast then fall off to near zero far northwest tonight to the upper teens near
Short term /Sunday through Monday/...
high pressure will build across the northeast Sunday, with a return
to cooler-than-normal conditions. A weak upper shortwave will move
across central New England Sunday night and Monday morning, bringing
low chances for some light snow showers to our area, especially
southwest portions. Otherwise, dry weather is expected for the start
of the week. Southwest flow will allow temperatures to warm up a bit
on Monday, though we'll still be a bit below normal for highs.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
another weak disturbance will bring showers to the region Monday
night into Tuesday. While northern areas will stay cold enough to
remain all snow for this event, central and especially southern
Maine will likely changeover to rain Tuesday afternoon as
temperatures reach into the middle and upper 30s. There's still lots of
uncertainty as we head later into the week, specifically with the
handling of low pressure that is prognosticated to move off the Carolina
coast on Wednesday. The GFS and the Canadian keep high pressure
firmly in place across the northeast and therefore shunt the low
well out to sea. These scenarios would give caribou's forecast area
little if any precipitation. Meanwhile, the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS
ensemble mean bring the low much closer to the coast, which means at
least the southern half of our area would see snow. It should be
noted that the 13/00z run of the European model (ecmwf) takes the low further south
and east than the previous run, and would keep areas from Houlton
north dry. Given the continued discrepancies, opted to stay close to
the previous forecast with high chance probability of precipitation (50%) over our southern
sections, with 30% and 40% north.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
near term: west/ some snow melt providing a source of low-level
moisture across our southern taf sites and clear skies/light winds in place
west/ a ridge of high pressure just S of this area...there is a threat of
some MVFR to IFR conds at our southern taf sites ovrnt into Erly Sat
am. Across the north...a weak cold front will cross these areas this
am west/ cold air advection to follow and this may be accompanied by a period of
MVFR from Erly this am into late am/Erly afternoon. VFR conds expected
at all taf sites from this afternoon through tonight.
Short term: VFR conditions will generally prevail through the
first half of the week. The possible exceptions come on Sunday
night into early Monday and Monday night into Tuesday, when two
weak disturbances will bring snow showers and MVFR conditions to
the region. Tuesday afternoon will be warm enough to turn the snow
over to rain from Houlton south.
near term: latest wave guidance forecasts sserly swell from deep low
pressure passing well southeast of the area to push seas up into the 6+ feet
range tonight into Erly sun. West/ a surface pressure gradient also supporting
wind gusts into the lower 20s...have opted for a generic Small Craft Advisory from
00z this evening through 14z sun am.
Short term: waves will remain around 5 feet through Sunday
morning as winds respond to cold air moving over the relatively
warm waters, but they are expected to subside by the afternoon.
Therefore a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through the
morning. Otherwise, headlines are not anticipated through early
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM EST this evening to 10 am EDT
Sunday for anz050>052.