Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1237 PM EDT Thursday Oct 8 2015
cooler temperatures today with high pressure ridging across the
region. The high will pass to the east tonight with increasing
clouds. Low pressure will bring rain to the region Friday into
Friday evening with colder air and windy conditions for Saturday.
Near term /through tonight/...
1235 PM update...partly to mostly sunny skies continue to dominate
as high pressure builds across the region. Middle and high clouds
will begin to move into northern areas later this afternoon ahead
of an approaching low pressure system. Have made a few slight
adjustments to sky, winds, and temperatures to match current trends.
Otherwise, no changes were needed.
Previous discussion...model soundings show some clouds to move
across far northern areas early today and then the llvls dry out
west/northwest winds kicking in for a time. High clouds are expected to
begin to move into the state later today and these clouds can be
seen on the infrared satellite imagery back across the Ontario province.
Daytime temperatures will be about 10-12 degrees cooler than
Wednesday west/a decent northwest wind of 10 to 20 miles per hour early today.
For tonight, winds will drop quickly by evening down to less than
6 miles per hour west/just some high clouds overhead. Thinking is that there
will be enough radiational cooling to allow for temperatures to drop off
quickly before leveling off after midnight. Concern is that temperatures
could drop further if clouds hold off a while longer especially in
the low lying areas. Stayed close to the daycrew's thinking of low
to middle 30s north and west and upper 30s to around 40 central and
Short term /Friday through Saturday/...
an area of low pressure will approach from the west Friday
morning and cross the region during Friday afternoon. Expect rain
to overspread the region by middle morning Friday ad then taper to
showers early Friday evening as the low quickly moves east into
the Maritimes. Rainfall amounts through Friday evening are
expected to range from around a quarter of an inch across the St
John valley and upwards to around a half inch across down east.
Highs on Friday will range from the upper 40s to near 50 north and
the low to middle 50s down east.
Any lingering showers Friday evening will give way to partial clearing
in the wake of the low Friday night. Northwest winds will usher
in cooler air later Friday night with lows ranging from around 30
across the far north and the middle 30s to around 40 central and down
Saturday is shaping up as a blustery and chilly day as high
pressure builds in from the west. Highs on Saturday are only
expected to range from the low to middle 40s north and upper 40s to
lower 50s across central and down east.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
high pressure will build to our south during Saturday night. A
weak warm front moving across Quebec may bring an isolated snow
shower to the St John valley late Saturday night or early Sunday
morning. Otherwise expect mainly cloudy skies north and partly to
mostly cloudy skies down east Saturday night and on Sunday.
Looking ahead to early next week, we will see a moderating temperatures
trend by Monday as a southwest flow around high pressure to our
south transports milder air across the region. Highs on Monday are
expected to range from the middle to upper 60s across the region.
Monday night will be unseasonably mild with increasing clouds in
advance of an approaching cold front from the Great Lakes.
Tuesday will continue unseasonably mild with the chance for
showers as a cold front crosses the region later Tuesday and
High pressure will build back in for Wednesday.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
near term: VFR through tonight.
Short term: MVFR/IFR conditions are expected in rain/ceilings Friday. VFR
conditions are expected to return Friday night through much of
near term: no headlines anticipated this term. A swell is still
out on the waters, but wave heights have dropped off to 3 to 4 feet
away from the intra coastal zone. Winds will come for a time early
today west/arrival of cold air advection hitting the waters. Therefore, decided to
increase the wind gusts to 20 kts mainly for the outer zones. The
offshore wind should keep wave heights down to 2 to 3 feet.
Short term: wind/seas could reach Small Craft Advisory levels
Friday and again on Saturday.