Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1150 PM EST Friday Dec 26 2014
high pressure will build across the region through Saturday.
Low pressure will track across northern Maine Saturday night into
Sunday drawing a cold front across the region later Sunday.
Near term /through Saturday/...
1150 PM update...raised sky cover and temperatures significantly
for the rest of the night. Stratus deck has overtaken the area and
is expected to remain through the night. The stratus deck will
keep temperatures much warmer than guidance because of a lack of
with wind gusts continuing to subside over the northwest and far NE portion of the
forecast area this middle afternoon...we dropped the remaining portion of the wind advection.
Cannot rule out a few more wind gusts in the 35 to 40 miles per hour range
until 5 PM EST over open...higher terrain lctns such as kfve Airport...
but surface winds should begin to decouple significantly from higher
winds aloft aftr sunset as the bl becomes deeper and better
established. Winds should even become relatively light later tonight
over broad valley areas...but not enough to go for sig lower overnight
low temperatures...with to little invsn potential at this time. In addition to
light wind...SC cldnss will spread west-southwest to east-northeast across the north half of
the forecast area overnight...resulting in current clear skies to become partly to
msly cloudy and limiting the surface base invsn potential. Otherwise...the
southern half of the forecast area will remain clear to partly cloudy. Overnight temperatures will
be cooler than last night...but still well above average for this tm of
Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will continue Sat...with the leading
edge of light ovrrng snfl associated with surface low pressure advcg east-northeast
from the upper Great Lakes just getting to northern Somerset County by
Erly Sat even. Hi temperatures Sat will be about 5 to 10 degree cooler than
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
clouds will continue to thicken Saturday evening with light
overrunning precipitation spreading across northern and central
areas by midnight as an area of low pressure tracks to our north.
Precipitation will wind down shortly afternoon daybreak Sunday as
the low quickly heads east toward the Canadian Maritimes. The
precipitation will be mainly in the form of light snow across
northern areas and light snow changing to rain across central and
downeast before ending Sunday morning. Any snow accumulation by
Sunday morning will be light with generally 1 to 2 inches expected
from Houlton northward. Colder air will start to move in in the
wake of the low Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Low
temperatures by Monday morning will range from 5 to 15 across
northern and central areas and upper teens to lower 20s downeast.
Monday will be partly to mostly cloudy across the region as an
Arctic boundary crosses the region. There could be a few snow
showers with the passage of the Arctic front during Monday mainly
across northern areas. High temperatures on Monday will probably
occur during the morning hours and then fall during the afternoon
as the Arctic front moves east.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
the start of the period find the extended models in good
agreement. An an area of higher pressure will dominate the weather
early in the period. A low tracking across northern Canada at the start
of the period will drag a trough into northwest Maine Wednesday morning. The
trough will move through by Wednesday afternoon...by early Thursday morning a
broad area of lower pressure associated with the upper low will
move across northern Maine. The GFS/Gem show this area moving east
early Friday morning...the European model (ecmwf) Friday afternoon. A ridge of higher
pressure will briefly build in before the next low moves across
the Great Lakes...its associated warm front will move into northwest
Maine by the end of the period.
Loaded the superblend. Loaded nawave 4 for seas for the coastal
waters. Added 15 percent to winds for gusts over land...30 percent
for gusts over the coastal waters.
Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
near term: VFR anticipated tonight through Sat.
Short term: widespread MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Saturday
night into Sunday morning in light snow or rain. Conditions will
improve to VFR Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. There could
brief MVFR/IFR conditions early Monday at the northern taf sites
in any scattered snow showers otherwise VFR is expected through
near term: Small Craft Advisory conditions continue over outer mzs050-051 through tonight...
but winds and waves appear to be below Small Craft Advisory thresholds over inner
Bay/Harbor mz052...where we dropped the Small Craft Advisory for this issuance.
Winds and waves should subside over the outer mzs on Sat.
Short term: Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible late
Saturday night through Sunday. Conditions will then remain below
small craft levels through middle week.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Saturday for anz050-051.