Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1029 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015
high pressure will cross the region overnight then move east
Sunday. Low pressure will cross the region Sunday night into
Monday. High pressure will build toward the area Monday night
and Tuesday from the west. Another low will cross the region
Near term /through Sunday/...
high pressure will cross the region overnight with clear skies
and cold temperatures. Generally expect overnight low temperatures
in the single digits below zero across much of the forecast
area...with around 5 above zero to 5 below zero along the downeast
coast. Locally colder temperatures are possible across the
forecast area in sheltered low lying locations...with slightly
warmer temperatures across hills and higher terrain areas. Have
updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with
strong high pressure around 1045 millibars is centered over central
PA this afternoon. The center of the high will weaken and slowly
drift off the southern New England coast sun. A trough draped
across the Canadian prairie this afternoon will move into central
Ontario Sun afternoon.
March to come in like a Lamb this year. Lots of bright sunshine for
much of the day with some increase in clouds as the day wears on.
The air mass will continue to moderate and high temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than today. Our forecast high temperatures in many areas
have been reached by around noon the past couple of days and have
had to be raised...and will adjust the forecast highs up just a
bit for tomorrow. This means highs in the M/u 20s across The Crown
of Maine to around the freezing mark along the coast.
Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday/...
at the start of the period the models are in good agreement on
the major systems. The high pressure ridge moves off to the east
as a two system approach from the west. A low moving across the
eastern Great Lakes will move into western Maine at the start of the
period. A second system moving east across Hudson Bay with its
cold front southeast into Lake Superior will combine with the system over
the eastern Great Lakes. By Monday morning the combined system will sweep
through to eastern Maine. The models indicate secondary development
over the Gulf of Maine. The GFS/European model (ecmwf) keep the new low along the
coast of Maine. The GFS over the downeast coast...European model (ecmwf) over the
middle-coast region. Both the Gem/NAM show the secondary low over the
southern Gulf of Maine. Monday evening the low deepens and moves to the east.
The GFS/European model (ecmwf) move it to Newfoundland. The Gem/NAM into the
Maritimes east of Newfoundland. Higher pressure builds into Maine
that will crest over the area Tuesday afternoon as a new low moves
east out of The Four Corners region to eastern NE. By the end of the
period...the new low will move into Michigan...as the ridge
continues to build east.
Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/Gem/ECMWF for T/TD/wnd/pop. Loaded
nawave 4 for seas in the coastal waters. Added 15 percent to winds
for gusts over land...35 percent for gusts over coastal waters.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
high pressure ridge moves east of the area by Tuesday night as
strong low pressure approaches from the west. GFS and European model (ecmwf) have
similar solutions with track of low along St Lawrence River valley
but major differences in strength of low and associated warm air
with the system. GFS is much deeper and warmer solution
indicating rain downeast with mixed across central/northern areas.
European model (ecmwf) shows rain along coast...mixed in central and snow across
north. Opted to stick with blend solution...closer to European.
Gusty winds and colder air as low moves northeast and surface
ridge builds in. Lingering chance of snow showers through Thursday
with short waves embedded in northwest flow. Short respite from
snow on Friday under strong high pressure but clouds will again be
on the increase Saturday ahead of next low approaching from west.
Aviation /03z Sunday through Thursday/...
near term: VFR conditions are expected across the region
overnight through Sunday afternoon.
Short term: IFR in light snow bgr...bhb...hul...MVFR northern sites as
a low tracks across the northern Gulf of Maine. Improving conditions SW
to NE Monday morning with all sites VFR Monday afternoon. Generally clear
conditions Monday night through Tuesday morning...with increasing high clouds
Tuesday morning...middle level clouds Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday evening
bgr...bhb will be ovrcst middle level clouds during the afternoon.
IFR conditions return Tuesday night in snow with as the next frontal
system moves in. IFR conditions will move SW and spread east. This
system will move through Thursday morning with conditions improving to
VFR by Thursday afternoon as higher pressure builds in.
near term: winds/seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels overnight through Sunday afternoon. Light freezing spray
will occur overnight into Sunday morning.
Short term: winds ands seas below Small Craft Advisory Sunday night...winds
building to gale force gusts Monday afternoon. Seas building to 6
to 9 feet. Winds will subside below Small Craft Advisory Tuesday afternoon as higher
pressure builds across the region. Seas will subside to below 5 feet
this February will end as the all-time coldest month
on record at Bangor...and the coldest February at Caribou. The
latest up to date information on the cold weather this February is
available on the news headlines on the top of our web Page at
A full summary of the month will be available by Sunday evening.