Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1234 am EDT Tuesday Mar 11 2014
a small area of low pressure will approach tonight then cross the
area early Tuesday morning. A larger storm system will approach
Wednesday into Wednesday night and track through the Gulf of Maine
Near term /through today/...
1230 am update: WSR-88D imagery showed light snow across southwest
Maine which will progress across the state by 4 am. The 03z hrrr
captured this progression well. The current forecast snowfall
accumulation look reasonable. No changes made to the near term
930 PM update...low pressure along the on/qc border will trek
southeast overnight with the primary low center to be just west of
cyqb by 12z Tuesday. A weak secondary low is expected to develop
toward morning in the Gulf of Maine. Clouds will continue to
thicken up this evening with light snow to spread from west to
east across the County Warning Area later tonight. The snow should begin by
around midnight across the western mountains and spread to Bangor
by 1-2 am...and to Caribou-Presque Isle by 2-3 am. Amounts are
expected to range from 1-3 inches in most areas. Some rain may mix
in along and near the coast as the precipitation ends early Tuesday
morning. The last of the steady snow will rapidly end by middle-
morning Tuesday across the northeast Aroostook County. Only some
minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast with the main update for
a slightly slower onset of the snow across the western and central
skies cloud up this evening with a clipper system set to spread
snow into the area from west to east overnight. Lows will occur
near midnight and generally be in the 20s with temperatures
nudging up overnight on southerly winds and warm advection. The
steadiest and heaviest snow looks to fall late tonight into early
Tuesday morning with precipitation tapering off west to east later
Tuesday morning into the early afternoon...possibly even ending as
a few light rain showers over central and southern area as
temperatures rise into the 30s. Snow amounts with this system will
generally be in the 1 to 3 inch range with the highest amounts
falling over the higher terrain areas of the north and west. Southern
areas will see at least partial sunshine develop by Tuesday
afternoon with highs reaching into the 40s while northern parts of
the County Warning Area remain under mainly cloudy skies with highs in the low to
Short term /tonight through Thursday/...
a weak area of high pressure will be over the area Wednesday
night. Our focus then turns to a storm system developing in the
Ohio Valley and expected to track across southern New England
Wednesday night and through the Gulf of Maine on Thursday. Latest
guidance is showing the potential for a heavy snowfall across much
of the area with the heaviest snow likely in central locations.
Snow will spread across the region around midday Wednesday.
Initially the snow will be light and roads will just be wet. Snow
will then get heavier and steadier Wednesday evening and may
change to rain along the coast, and sleet or freezing rain just
inland from the coast, later Wednesday night. The exact track
still remains a bit uncertain, but it appears likely that
significant snow will affect the entire area. The heaviest snow
should be over by early Thursday morning. However, light snow and
wind will likely continue for much of the day on Thursday as the
upper level low tracks across the region. A Winter Storm Watch is
being issued for the entire area from midday Wednesday through
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
low pressure will move away Thursday night into Friday as high
pressure briefly ridges across the area. Clouds will then increase
Friday night. Some snow is possible Saturday as a low tracks
through southern Canada and lifts into Quebec. The low will pull
an occlusion across the area Saturday and any snow will likely be
light giving an inch or two of accumulation. Snow may change to
rain near the coast. Following this low, a deep and cold upper
level trough will dig into the northeast bringing some very cold
air Sunday into Monday. A small low on Monday is expected to swing
well east of the region. This will leave our area partly cloudy
and cold with some snow showers or flurries possible Sunday and
again on Monday.
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
near term: VFR conditions will lower to MVFR then quickly to IFR
overnight as snow moves in. These conditions will continue into
Tuesday morning with improvement to VFR by the early afternoon for
the southern sites. Northern areas, however, will likely hang
on to low stratus and MVFR/IFR conditions into Tuesday afternoon
even after the main shield of snow departs.
Short term: VFR conditions Tuesday night into early Wednesday will
drop to IFR in snow and lowering clouds Wednesday afternoon. IFR
conditions can be expected in snow Wednesday night through
Thursday. VFR conditions are expected Friday. Conditions will
lower to MVFR Friday night then IFR on Saturday as another system
near term: winds/seas will increase tonight into Tuesday morning
but are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels so no headlines are needed
for the near term.
Short term: a strong Small Craft Advisory or a gale will likely be needed late
Wednesday night into Thursday as low pressure approaches and
tracks through the Gulf of Maine.
ME...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
evening for mez001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.