Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
932 PM EDT Thursday Aug 28 2014
a trough of low pressure will cross the area this afternoon then move east
of the region tonight. High pressure will build in from the west
on Friday and crest over the state early Friday night.
Near term /through Friday/...
920 PM update...
chilly, raw evening over northern Maine with drizzle, light
showers, a decent north breeze, and temperatures in the 50s and
fixing to drop into the 40s in the Saint John valley. Temperatures have
fallen a bit faster than forecast and adjusted for this. Also
tweaked sky to reflect current conditions, which is cloudy north
of Millinocket and partly cloudy south of Millinocket as of 920
PM. Low clouds and light showers will continue to spill south
through the evening, with the main push being over far eastern
Maine east of Bangor and Lincoln.
as of 630 PM, showers have mostly tapered off. However,
expect an increase in shower activity over northeast Maine this
evening as a shortwave moves in from the north/northeast. Rimouski
had a few hours of light rain earlier, and per webcams, the light
rain showers have reached St Quentin in northwest New Brunswick.
Expect the light showers to reach northeast Maine by middle evening.
Temperatures are also dropping in a hurry early this evening as we
get a secondary surge of cool air. Frenchville is down to 55
degrees as 6 PM.
Later tonight, skies will clear, but do not expect the pressure
gradient to relax enough for the atmosphere to decouple, thus
temperatures will not get as cool as they could be otherwise.
High pressure for Friday will lead to a mostly sunny and mild day.
Short term /Friday night through Sunday/...
high pressure crests over the area Friday evening before sliding east
Friday night into Saturday. This will allow a warmer SW flow to
develop with highs Saturday warming into the low to middle 70s. The
warm advection will also result in increasing cloud cover during
this period with a slight chance of late day showers across the
north. However the latest trends in forecast guidance keep most of
the showers north of the area through Saturday.
The slight chance for a few showers continues Saturday night in
the north as a cold front will be located north of the area over
Quebec. Lows Saturday night will be fairly mild...generally in the
upper 50s and low 60s.
The chance for showers will increase through Sunday and also
spread south with time as the cold front moves down. Convective available potential energy are
also supportive of the chance of thunder but mainly over western
areas where this has been reflected in the grids. Highs look to be
in the 70s with increasing levels of humidity.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the long range looks to continue to be more unsettled as the
front mentioned above stalls across the area for Monday and
Tuesday. This will result in considerable cloud cover persisting
with the continuing chance of showers. However it does not look to
be an "all day rain" type of scenario at this point. Forecast
uncertainty increases heading into the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame as the GFS keeps conditions unsettled while the Euro
advertises drying with high pressure moving in. Used our extended
forecast model blend procedure which results in continuing
chance/slight chance probability of precipitation for these days. Temperatures through the
long range look to be near or slightly above average with highs
generally in the 70s.
Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/...
near term: MVFR ceilings this evening from Frenchville to Houlton,
with localized embedded IFR. The MVFR ceilings are not expected
to impact areas as far west of Bangor and Bar Harbor. The MVFR/IFR
conditions over northeast Maine will improve to VFR later tonight.
VFR for Saturday.
VFR through Saturday with MVFR/IFR becoming increasingly likely
heading into Sunday due to showers associated with a cold front.
The best chance for these conditions will be in the north. Clouds
with the chance of showers look to persist with this front into
early next week resulting in a continuing potential for MVFR/IFR
near term: high surf advisory in effect for long period swells
from Hurricane Cristobal. Combined seas of 6 to 9 feet with period
of 14 to 16 seconds.
Short term: seas will subside for Friday night with winds also
light under high pressure. S/SW winds will increase through
Saturday with the potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions by Saturday night
into Sunday. Seas will also once again build to near 5 feet by
Sunday. Winds/seas will subside once again for Sunday night into
ME...high surf advisory until 8 am EDT Friday for mez029-030.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM EDT Friday