Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
736 PM EST Thursday Dec 18 2014
low pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight. High
pressure over the Midwest will slowly build toward the area
through Saturday...and remain over the area into Monday. Low
pressure will approach the region from the west Wednesday.
Near term /through Friday/...
low pressure will move from the Gulf of Saint Lawrence toward
Newfoundland tonight. Snow showers wrapping around the low will
persist across the region early tonight...particularly northern
and eastern portions of the forecast area. Any additional snow
accumulations tonight are expected to be an inch or less. Snow
showers will then decrease overnight leaving cloudy to mostly
cloudy skies across the region. Overnight low temperatures will
range from the upper teens to lower 20s north...to the middle to
upper 20s downeast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for
current conditions along with expected overnight temperatures and
low pressure that was responsible for our latest winter storm
will lift out to the northeast and into the far northwest Atlantic
Friday. High pressure across the upper Midwest will very slowly
build toward the region through Friday. Clouds and flurries or
isolated snow showers Friday morning across The Crown of Maine
will likely give way to a few breaks of sunshine in the afternoon.
Downeast areas should be p/sunny. Highs Friday will range from
the middle to upper 20s across northern Maine to the low 30s in the
Short term /Friday night through Sunday/...
surface/upper level ridging will build across the area for Friday
night and Saturday. The biggest challenge during this period will
be cloud cover and nighttime temperatures as there are indications
that moisture will get trapped below developing subsidence
inversion later Friday night and Saturday. Have followed the lead
of previous shifts and leaned with more in the way of cloud cover
for later Friday night and Saturday based on model soundings
(especially the nam)showing shallow moisture layer beneath the
inversion. Temperatures Friday night may fall into the single
digits before clouds build in toward Saturday morning. Soundings
show clouds may hang Tuff right into Sunday. This once again will
result in a tricky low temperature forecast for Saturday night. If
clouds hang in temperatures may be several degrees warmer than
forecasted Saturday night.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the surface/upper ridges will shift east Sunday night through
Monday night with dry weather expected. The next system will
approach the area Christmas evening. Appears the next system will be
more wet than white as latest guidance shows low pressure passing
off to our west later Christmas evening through Christmas day.
Although we may see the precipitation start as snow initially it
should quickly change to rain all areas by later Christmas evening.
Temperatures through the extended period should be above normal
for this time of year.
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
near term: variable conditions ranging from VFR to IFR will occur
across the region early tonight. Conditions will then improve to
VFR levels downeast...with occasional MVFR conditions persisting
across northern areas overnight. Occasional MVFR conditions are
possible across northern areas early Friday. Otherwise...VFR
conditions are expected across the region Friday.
Short term: MVFR ceilings are expected to develop later Friday
night and possibly continue at times right into Sunday especially
across northern areas. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible
Monday...with MVFR/IFR conditions Tuesday.
near term: a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the
waters tonight into early Friday morning. Conditions should then
fall below Small Craft Advisory levels Friday afternoon.
Visibilities could be reduced in any rain/snow showers early
Short term: wind/seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels through Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected by middle week as the next system moves across the region.
a total of 11.3 inches of snow at weather forecast office Caribou as of 1
PM. The seasonal total is now up to 53.4 inches...which ranks as
the 3rd snowiest winter season to date behind only 1972 and 2007.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Friday for anz050>052.