Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
634 am EDT Friday Jul 25 2014
high pressure will build south of the area today and then move
east Saturday. Low pressure will begin to move east across the
Near term /through tonight/...
update...adjusted forecast for current conditions.
An area of high pressure will remain to our south today while an
upper level low remains to our north. Expect sunny skies this
morning to give way to increasing clouds across northern and western
areas. Some weak short wave energy rotating around the upper low to
the north could bring an isolated shower to northern and western
areas this afternoon. High temperatures today will range from the
middle 70s across northern areas to the upper 70s to around 80 across
central and downeast.
Tonight will be mainly clear to partly cloudy across the region as
high pressure remains to our south and the next disturbance
approaches from Quebec. Lows tonight will generally be in the low to
middle 50s across the region.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday/...
expect the first part of the weekend to generally be dry. However, a
weak nearly-stationary front stretching across southern Quebec could
allow a few showers to pop up in the afternoon, especially over
northern Maine. The better chance for rain arrives Sunday as low
pressure traverses across the Great Lakes into northern New England,
dragging an occluded front in its wake. This will bring widespread
showers to much of the forecast area Sunday, though there is still
some uncertainty as to exactly where the steadiest rain will fall.
Guidance indicates there will be instability around (capes are
prognosticated to be 300-900 j/kg) so introduced the chance for
thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be
seasonable for Saturday as highs will top out in the upper 70s to
lower 80s in most locations owing to some sunshine. Saturday night
will feel a bit muggy as moisture starts to stream into the area
ahead of the approaching low, with temperatures staying in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunday will be around 5 degrees cooler
than Saturday due to cloudy and rainy conditions.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
unsettled weather will be the norm through much of next week. This
is due to an upper trough which will set up residence across Quebec
on Sunday and remain there through the middle part of the week. A
series of shortwaves will rotate around the trough and cross
northern New England. These features are notoriously hard to time,
but it looks like we'll see periods of showers through at least
Tuesday, with perhaps a brief break Wednesday and/or Thursday.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than normal, especially for the
first half of the week, though a bit of improvement is possible as
we head into Thursday.
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
near term: VFR through tonight.
Short term: expect to start out VFR and remain so through
Saturday night. Rain showers will become widespread Sunday, along
with MVFR conditions. Periods of rain look likely right through
Tuesday, so expect MVFR to prevail. Localized IFR possible at
near term: winds/seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
Short term: a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed late
Saturday/Saturday night through Sunday as low pressure slides
eastward from the Great Lakes. Although winds should stay below 25
kt, seas of 5 to 7 feet are possible. Therefore any headlines would
need to be for hazardous seas only.