Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1216 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014
low pressure will move away through the Maritimes today. Another
area of low pressure will approach from central Canada tonight
and cross the region early Sunday.
Near term /through tonight/...
1215 PM update...scattered showers have popped up across NE Aroostook
County. Updated probability of precipitation to reflect scattered showers...will continue patchy
drizzle for zones 2...5...and 6.
Previous discussion we will finally get a chance to dry out today
as the low pressure system that brought rain to northern and
downeast Maine the past few days continues to move east of the
Canadian Maritimes. Expect mostly cloudy skies across northern
areas and partly sunny skies across downeast today. Highs will
range from the middle to upper 40s north and low to middle 50s downeast.
Low pressure tracking across central Canada will bring more
showers to the region tonight especially across northern areas.
Lows tonight will range from the middle to upper 30s north and low to
middle 40s downeast.
Short term /Sunday through Monday/...
low pressure dropping down from central Canada will cross the area
on Sunday bringing showers, mainly across the north. The low will
pull east across the Maritimes Sunday night as a blustery cool
northwesterly wind follows behind the low. Showers will become
lighter. Showers across the north may mix with wet snow late
Sunday night or early Monday morning as cooler air circulates in
behind the departing low. Skies will partially clear across the
north Monday afternoon and become mostly clear downeast as the low
pulls east and away.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
a thin ridge of high pressure will move over the region Monday
night into early Tuesday bringing mostly clear skies. Clouds may
increase late Tuesday as a new area of low pressure tracking
through central Canada pulls a warm front across the area. This
will be followed by a mild night Tuesday night ahead of an
approaching occluding front. Some showers will then be likely
late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the occluding front moves
through. The air will still be mild behind this front and some
breaks of sunshine will be possible Wednesday following the
frontal passage. Some much cooler air dropping south through
eastern Canada will then begin to flow into the region Thursday
into Friday. Low pressure will be developing off the East Coast.
Latest guidance is taking this low south of the area, but if it
does make it north it could be cold enough for snow early in the
Aviation /16z Saturday through Wednesday/...
near term: mainly VFR today but there could be some lingering MVFR
ceilings through 12z. VFR this evening will give way to MVFR in showers
Short term: MVFR conditions are likely Sunday into Sunday night,
possibly dropping to IFR across the north at times. Conditions
should improve to VFR Monday night and remain VFR on Tuesday. VFR
conditions Tuesday night may drop to MVFR late at night. MVFR
conditions are likely Wednesday.
near term: wind/seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
Short term: an Small Craft Advisory will be needed Sunday through Monday, possibly
reaching a gale Monday morning. Winds will diminish Monday night
and be light Tuesday as ridging crosses the water.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 8 am Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for