Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
944 am EDT Sat Aug 23 2014
high pressure will crest over the area on Sunday, then gradually
weaken and move south of the area early next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
940 am update...main change with this update was to remove
isolated showers from the forecast for this afternoon. Based on
12z car sounding, which lines up well with latest rap, warm layer
near 800 mb with high building in and subsidence should suppress vertical
cloud development keeping conditions dry. Also made some minor
changes to sky cover, temps, dew points, and winds for this
morning based on the latest conditions.
high pressure will continue to build into the area. Early this
morning, we have patchy valley radiation fog over far
north/northwest Maine where skies have cleared. Elsewhere, there
is an extensive low to middle level cloud deck. Expect the clouds to
gradually decrease through the day with partly cloudy skies by
midday. Just enough instability and some weak low level
convergence could spark some afternoon showers over central
portions of the area running from Houlton and Caribou southwest to
the Moosehead Lake region. Nothing significant at all...just an
isolated shower. Winds will be light today out of the northeast
with highs a little warmer than yesterday and running mainly in
the middle 70s.
Partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight with lows mainly in the
lower to middle 50s.
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
for Sunday...the powerful upper ridge will slide eastward with
warm air advection pushing highs into the low 80s for most of the
area except the coast where upper 70s are forecast. A weak cold
front extending south from a low north of Labrador could set off a
few showers towards the eastern border of the state later in the
afternoon...but will only go with slight chance probability of precipitation. Sunday night
will be the last cooler night with lows in the middle 50s with light
winds and clear skies. As the upper level ridge continues to
strengthen on Monday...temperatures will be warmer yet with highs
reaching the low to middle 80s across the area. Southwest winds
develop with surface high pressure to the south. Fair skies
continue into Monday night with lows around 60f.
Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/...
the upper ridge remains in place for Tuesday and highs will
increase again to the upper 80s for most of the area. Southwest
winds increase with gusts to 20 miles per hour. The upper ridge starts to
break down Tuesday night. A weak cold front is expected to
approach far northern zones late Tuesday night with a chance of
thunderstorms towards the St John valley. This front will ease
into northern zones Wednesday and provide the threat of strong
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Highs will be in the low to middle
80s north and upper 80s for Bangor and Lincoln. The front could be
a slow mover without much cool air advection. As a result...will
keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Thursday with
the front lingering over the state. The movement of a tropical
system northward ahead of the cold front further complicates the
forecast for late next week. The general trend for late week will
be unsettled with slightly cooler temperatures.
Aviation /14z Saturday through Wednesday/...
near term: VFR today into tonight other than possible patchy fog
late tonight again.
Short term: outside of patchy fog near sunrise...expect VFR
conditions. There is a chance of strong thunderstorms by Wednesday
near term: conditions remaining below small craft levels through tonight.
Short term: no significant issues expected. In spite of warming
temperatures...fog is not expected during the period.