Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
633 am EST Thursday Dec 25 2014
strong low pressure will track well northwest of Maine today
while a cold front moves through the state. High pressure will
build in Friday and Saturday.
Near term /through tonight/...
630 am update...
minor update just to adjust to current temperatures, which are all
the place. Bangor rose from 39 to 54 just after midnight, then
dropped to 40, and now has risen back up to 52! Temperatures are
very sensitive to where the warm wind aloft is mixing down to the
surface. Steadier rain is redeveloping now ahead of the cold
front. Look for a rainy morning with rain ending abruptly around
very warm and moist airmass in place this morning ahead of an
approaching cold front. Temperatures are well into the 50s along
the coast and middle 30s to 40s elsewhere. Bangor soared to 54,
setting a record high for the day, before falling back to 40 as
the southerly wind died down. Expect temperatures to rise a couple
degrees most places before the front moves through around midday.
Early this morning, there is a temporary break in the rain. Expect
rain to fill back in by middle morning just ahead of the front, then
end around midday from west to east as the front moves through.
Some of the heavier showers could help to mix down some of the
stronger winds aloft. Wind Advisory is out until 4 PM today near
the coast and will let it ride. So far, the highest wind gusts
observed have been 42 miles per hour. With the wet soil, gusts like this can
be sufficient to bring down a few trees.
After the front moves through, expect a dry afternoon and
temperatures gradually falling. Downeast may see some clearing,
but expect mostly cloudy skies to persist up north. Next concern
comes with strong winds late this afternoon and evening over the
north. Opted to issue a Wind Advisory for zones 1 and 2 (northwest
and northeast aroostook) for gusts to 45 miles per hour. With the decent
lapse rates, expect some frisky gusts to mix down, especially on
the hilltops. Temperatures fall back below freezing tonight for
all but perhaps the immediate coast.
Short term /Friday through Saturday/...
high pressure centered south of the region will ridge across the
forecast area Friday. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across
northern areas Friday through cloud cover will begin to increase
during the afternoon with a developing warm front. Partly/mostly
sunny skies are expected downeast Friday. The developing warm
front will remain in the vicinity of northern Maine Friday night
into Saturday keeping skies mostly cloudy across northern
areas...with generally partly cloudy skies downeast. Could also
have a slight chance of snow showers across northern areas later
Friday night into Saturday. Low pressure tracking northeast from
the Great Lakes will begin to cross northern Maine Saturday night.
The low will bring steadier snow to mostly northern and central
portions of the forecast area Saturday night where several inches
of accumulation are expected. The greater snow accumulations will
occur across northern areas...with lesser snow accumulations
southward across the remainder of the forecast area. Temperatures
will be at above normal levels Friday/Saturday.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
the low will cross northern Maine Sunday drawing a cold front
across the region...though how rapidly this occurs is still
uncertain. Expect a steadier snow early Sunday will taper to snow
showers across northern areas during the afternoon. Across
downeast areas...rain/snow showers will end Sunday morning with
decreasing clouds during the afternoon. High pressure should then
build across the region Monday into Wednesday with generally
partly cloudy skies across the forecast area. However...cloud
cover could begin to increase across northern areas Wednesday.
Temperatures will be at above normal levels Sunday. Slightly
below normal level temperatures are expected Monday through
Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
near term: IFR most areas this morning in rain, low clouds, and
fog. Significant wind shear present as well. After the cold front
moves through around midday, expect dramatic improvement with VFR
from about kpqi south, and MVFR ceilings kcar north. Little change
in conditions overnight Thursday night, with MVFR far north and
VFR elsewhere. Quite windy especially in the north later today and
Short term: generally expect VFR conditions across the region
Friday. Occasional MVFR conditions are expected across northern
areas Saturday...with VFR conditions downeast. MVFR to LIFR
conditions are expected across northern areas Saturday night into
early Sunday...with occasional MVFR conditions downeast.
Conditions will improve to VFR levels downeast later Sunday...with
occasional MVFR conditions still possible across the north and
mountains. Generally expect VFR conditions across the entire
near term: winds and seas have been slow to increase, but still
think gales are likely right before the front approaches, then
continuing this evening after the front moves through.
Short term: Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected Friday
into Friday night. Conditions are expected to be below Small Craft
Advisory levels Saturday into early Saturday night. Small Craft
Advisory conditions could then begin to develop later Saturday
night. Visibilities could be reduced in rain/snow later Saturday
heavy rainfall ranging from 1 to 2 inches on top of a melting
snowpack will bring the potential for stream and river flooding
for interior downeast and central areas...while further
north...localized flooding from ice jams is possible. Even after
the rain ends around midday...the flood threat will persist
because of the gradual response of some rivers and streams, and
because temperatures will remain above freezing into the evening
allowing for continued melting of the snowpack.
issued another coastal flood statement for the midday/early
afternoon high tide, as building seas combined with high
astronomical tides could allow for localized splashover at
vulnerable spots. Nothing major expected, though.
Bangor already set a record high with 54f in the early morning
hours. This is well above the record high of 51f...set in 2003.
At Caribou...the record high is 48f, also set in 2003. We are
currently forecasting a high of near 47f at Caribou.
ME...Flood Watch through Friday morning for mez001>006-010-011-
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight
Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for mez029-030.
Marine...Gale Warning until 1 am EST Friday for anz050>052.