Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
341 am EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Synopsis...
a second cold front is expected to cross the region today with
cooler air tonight into Wednesday.
&&
Near term /through tonight/...
high pressure will build in from the west today. An upper trough
will approach from the west tonight as low pressure passes to the
southeast of New England. Will blend the GFS...sref and European model (ecmwf) for
probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast. Clouds will increase today as upper trough
approaches. For wind grids have used a 50/50 blend of the nam12
and gmos. Temperature grids initialized with the gmos and will
adjust minimum temperature two degrees higher and maximum two
degrees lower. For dew point will use the gemreg.
&&
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
drier weather is in store for the region through this term.
High pressure at the surface will build into the region on Wednesday with
a trough passing trough in the upper levels. This will mean cooler
temperatures and some cumulus development during the day, but dry.
Decided on a blend of the nam12/gmos and ecmwfmos for the high
temperatures which shows upper 60s to lower 70s across the
northern 1/2 of the County Warning Area and middle 70s for the central and downeast
areas. High pressure is shown to ridge across the region on Wednesday
night and upper trough moving east of the region. Attm, opted to stay
close to the daycrew's temperatures of middle to upper 40s north and
west and upper 40s to lower 50s central and downeast. The daycrew
will need to look at this as the 12z European model (ecmwf) had 925mbs temperatures
in the 10-12c range which would lead to warmer readings.
High pressure slides off the coast on Thursday west/a return flow of warmer
air being pulled into the region west/daytime highs about 5 degrees
warmer than Wednesday. A blend of the ecmwfmos and gmos was used
for the daytime highs of low to middle 70s across the County Warning Area.
&&
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
temperatures look to be on the rebound by late in the weekend.
In the meantime, a warm front is projected to lift across the
region Thursday night west/a threat for a few showers Maine across
the northern tier of the County Warning Area. The County Warning Area then gets into a warm sector
on Friday ahead of the cold front. This will allow for temperatures
to warm into the middle and possibly upper 70s. The latest runs of
the European model (ecmwf) and GFS point to the potential for some thunderstorms west/some
instability as sb convective available potential energy are forecast to hit 800-1000 j/kg by early
Friday afternoon. 0-6km shear of 25-30 kts will be enough to get
the storms going. There also appears to be enough middle level
forcing to aid in precipitation chances. Therefore, decided to shoot for
40% probability of precipitation for showers/thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening west/the
highest chances across the northern and western portion of the
County Warning Area. The cold front will have enough support aloft to move along
pretty quickly and be off the coast Friday night. There is a
slight cooldown behind the front Friday into Saturday, but the
temperatures will be near normal for middle june(mid 70s).
The latest European model (ecmwf)/Canadian global and GFS support temperatures
warming significantly by Sunday and continue into Monday as high
pressure over the Tennessee Valley ridges across the northestern US. Using a blend
of the ecmwfmos and gmos yields daytime highs hitting middle to upper
70s west/the potential for 80s on Monday. The only caveat to this is
that both the GFS and the 00z European model (ecmwf) show another shot for showers
and possible thunderstorms by Monday and possibly continuing into midweek.
&&
Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/...
near term: MVFR/IFR possible this morning...otherwise VFR conditions.
Short term: looking for VFR into Thursday. A brief period of MVFR
conditions is possible by Friday for the northern terminals west/the
cold front moving across the region and possible thunderstorms.
&&
Marine...
near term: for wind have used a blend of the nam12 and gfs40. For
waves: long period south to southeasterly wave system resulting
from southerly flow south and east of the Gulf of Maine last
several days continues to dominate. This is composed of 3-4 foot/8
second group from south and secondary southeasterly group 1
foot/9-10 seconds. Local wind wave will continue to be negligible.
Will use the Swan/NAM for grids.
Short term: no headlines anticipated for this term. A blend of
the Gem/nam12 and gfs40 was used for the sustained winds showing
10 kts at best into Thursday. SW winds becmg northwest later Friday west/an
increase in speeds behind the front can be expected but well below
Small Craft Advisory levels of 25 knots. Wave heights for forecast to remain well below
5 feet.
Car watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
Marine...none.
&&
$$
Near term...mignone
short term...Hewitt
long term...Hewitt
aviation...mignone/Hewitt
marine...mignone/Hewitt
