Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
908 am EDT sun Mar 16 2014
cold high pressure will build east toward the region today through
Tuesday from the west. The high will move into the Maritimes
Wednesday with a strong occluded front to sweep across the region
Near term /through tonight/...
update 0905 edt: have updated sky cover based on satellite imagery
and temperatures based on observations.
low pressure in the Gulf of St Lawrence will track northward into
Labrador today. A surge of late season Arctic air is streaming
into the area today behind this low. The pressure gradient
between this system and high pressure in the Great Lakes region
will be responsible for very strong winds. Gusts to 40 miles per hour are
possible in northern zones with a very well mixed boundary
layer...but do not foresee any locations hitting advisory
criteria. The possible exception would be higher terrain
measurements such as Frenchville or Greenville. The cold air
advection will keep temperatures steady or falling after highs are
registered very early this morning. Temperatures will drop below
zero tonight in most locations except towards the coast. The
continuing winds will mean wind chills will fall to advisory
criteria in northern zones.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
unseasonably cold Monday with temperatures around 20 degrees
below normal and close to record cold levels for this time of
year. A deep upper low in eastern Canada will exit into the North
Atlantic Monday with some modest moderation of the air mass by Tuesday
afternoon. A ridge of high pressure stretching from Hudson Bay to
southeast Ontario at 12z Monday will move into Quebec and New England
Monday will be p/sunny in the north with nothing more than a few
flurries. High temperatures will mostly be in the teens. Downslope
should lead to a sunny day downeast...but quite cold with highs only
in the low 20s along the coast. A northwest wind of 10 to 20 miles per hour
will add to the chill with wind chills remaining at or below zero all day
across The Crown of Maine and in the single digits downeast. A
Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for northern Maine through
Mainly clear and cold Monday night with lows well below zero across the
north...and from 5 below to 5 above downeast. The wind should
mostly be less than 10 miles per hour which will mitigate the wind chill
concerns. If the northwest valleys are able to decouple and the wind GOES
calm lows may approach 25 below.
Tuesday will be a sunny day...and with moderation of the air mass
temperatures will respond nicely once the shallow inversions are
broken. Highs will top out from 20 to 25 across northern Maine and
25 to 30 downeast...and with lighter wind it will be a much more
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
high pressure remains over the area Tuesday night for the last real cold
night of the week. Lows will range from 5 below to 5 above north
and from 5 to 15 above downeast. Again...some of the normal cold
valleys in the north may drop down to around 15 below. Clouds will
increase Wednesday as the next system begins to approach from the
The operational GFS/European model (ecmwf) are in better agreement although there is
still still a fair amount of ensemble spread. Low pressure is expected
to track from the Great Lakes at 00z Thursday and into central Quebec by
00z Friday and sweep a strong occlusion across the area. There remains
differences on whether or not there will be a secondary low
that develops along or near the coast. At this time would
expect snow or mixed precipitation north and mixed precipitation
to change to rain downeast. The quantitative precipitation forecast amounts do not look to be all
that great...and at this time it appears that it would not be more than
possibly a low end advisory event in the north. It briefly dries
out in the wake of this system...but the 18z GFS and the 12z and
00z European model (ecmwf) bring a significant snowstorm to the region next
weekend...although there remain timing and phasing issues to be
worked out. The 00z GFS backed off and has a flatter solution with
a weaker low passing south of the area. The 00z GFS ensembles had
significant spread. At this time will not deviate from the model
consensus which has high chance probability of precipitation on Saturday.
Aviation /13z Sunday through Thursday/...
near term: VFR outside of a an occasional MVFR ceiling from pqi
northward this morning. Winds will be the big issue. West winds
with gusts reaching as high as 40 miles per hour at fve are possible. Gusts
will be up to 35 miles per hour elsewhere.
Short term: mostly VFR Monday through Wednesday night with conditions to lower
to MVFR and possibly IFR as precipitation moves in Wednesday night into
near term: delayed the start of the gale until this morning as
strong winds will not start until closer to mid-morning. The end
time late this morning still looks good and did not adjust. The
winds and unusually cold temperatures will create freezing spray
tonight and have added the advisory.
Short term: Small Craft Advisory conditions possible into Monday with the seas to
subside and the wind diminish later Monday through middle week as high
pressure builds over the waters. Moderate freezing spray is
expected Monday morning and a freezing spray advisory is in effect
through late morning Monday. The next potential Small Craft Advisory will be late
Wednesday or Wednesday night ahead of an approaching occlusion.
near record cold into Monday. Here are the record low high temperatures
for sun, 3/16 & Mon, 3/17 along with the record lows for Monday
morning. Forecast temperatures are in parenthesis. The record low
high temperatures for today will be out of reach as the high
temperatures were recorded around midnight this morning.
Caribou: record low high, 3/16: 14, 1976
3/17: 14, 1976 (15)
Record low, 3/17: -12, 1967 (-5)
record low, 3/18: -7, 1967 (-7)
Bangor : record low high, 3/16: 22, 1967
3/17: 15, 1967 (21)
Record low, 3/17: +1, 1967 (0)
record low, 3/18: -6, 1967 (-2)
ME...Wind Chill Advisory from 4 am to 10 am EDT Monday for mez002-
Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 am EDT
Monday for mez001-003-004.
Marine...freezing spray advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 am EDT
Monday for anz050>052.
Gale Warning until 2 am EDT Monday for anz050>052.