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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1238 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND
AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER WARMER AREA LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

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