Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
642 am EDT Monday Apr 27 2015
high pressure will build south into the region through Tuesday. Low
pressure will ride along the Gulf Coast and up the Atlantic coast
late Tuesday through Thursday...spreading moisture into our region.
Dry high pressure will return for Friday through Sunday.
Near term /through tonight/...
back door front has pushed south through the forecast area (fa).
Expect gradually decreasing cloud cover and drier cooler air working
into the region. In the near term...patchy fog has developed across
the NE forecast area. Observation and trends suggest dense fog advisory will not be
needed...but included patchy dense fog in the weather grids through 13z.
Short term /Tuesday through Tuesday night/...
fair with generally seasonal temperatures expected as dry high pressure
builds southeast into our region tonight and Tuesday. Models indicate upper
low to our west will shift east with surface low pressure developing
along the Gulf Coast Tuesday. Some upper energy ahead of the main
upper low could lead to some precipitation approaching the west forecast area during
the day Tuesday. Middle and high level cloudiness will be on the
increase Tuesday...but it may take a little while longer for the low
levels to moisten up. General model consensus generally keeps most
precipitation west of our forecast area until mainly after 00z Wednesday.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
surface low pressure will continue to slowly move east along the
Gulf Coast and up the Carolina coast Wednesday/Wednesday nt into Thursday. Weak in
situ wedge at the surface expected to develop in response to
isentropic lift induced rainfall and resultant evaporational cooling.
Trended lower on maximum temperatures Wednesday...and trended higher on probability of precipitation Wednesday/Wednesday
nt as well due to appearance of higher confidence of rainfall.
Some wrap around moisture behind the departing surface low coupled
with some upper energy just to our north/NE may result in chance
showers. Dry high pressure to build in from the northwest Friday through
Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
High pressure will build into the region from the north today as
cooler and drier air works in. Scattered to broken VFR ceilings around
4000-6000 feet will continue to sink southward this morning and
skies should become scattered by 16z or so. Persistent
northerly wind around 10 miles per hour or less through the period.
Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts expected
through Tuesday. A low pressure system tracking along the Gulf
Coast may result in widespread restrictions Wednesday.