Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1203 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015
high pressure over the region will move offshore this afternoon.
A cold front will move through the area tonight into Saturday
bringing showers. Dry weather returns Sunday. Another cold
front...with limited moisture...will cross the area Tuesday.
Near term /through tonight/...
this afternoon...high clouds will be moving across the region.
High pressure is forecast to be moving offshore as a cold front
approaches the mountains. The majority of this afternoon will
remain dry. Expect enough sunshine to warm temperatures into the
lower to middle 80s.
Tonight...near zonal upper level flow will turn more
southwesterly ahead of the deepening upper trough approaching from
the west. The chance for showers will begin to spread into the
western County Warning Area later this evening...then across the entire County Warning Area late
tonight into Saturday morning. The surface cold front is forecast
to move into the area late tonight. Low temperatures tonight will
moderate a few degrees with the cloud cover and slight warm
advection. Readings in the middle 60s.
Short term /Saturday through Saturday night/...
cold front pushes through the area during the day Saturday. Guidance
is coming into better agreement with upper trough crossing the
southeastern states closing off across the Carolinas Saturday. The
low then stalls near the coast through the weekend. At the
surface...high pressure will build into the area in a damming
configuration behind a slowly departing cold front. Deep moisture
remains across the area on Saturday which will combine with
developing isentropic lift to keep precipitation across the area. All
guidance have categorical probability of precipitation Saturday. Rainfall amounts around
half an inch should be common...with amounts near one inch
possible in heavier convection.
Saturday should only see temperatures climbing and remaining in
upper 60s north to middle 70s south. Behind the front Saturday
night...cooler readings will return as rain decreases from west to
east. Kept overnight lows in the 50s.
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
the upper trough is still forecast to cutoff off the southeastern
coast Sunday into Monday. The main cold front will have pushed off
the coast by this point...with weak high pressure over the County Warning Area.
There may still be lingering light rain on the back of the system
as the upper low moves off the coast...but the majority of that
should remain further east of the County Warning Area. Dry high pressure behind
the front should dominate Sunday through Monday. Another cold
front may approach the area Monday night into Tuesday...but at
this point it looks as if this front may push through dry. High
pressure will return for Wednesday through Thursday.
Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
restrictions possible again tonight in rain showers.
VFR conditions through the day...with mainly some middle and upper
level clouds moving through the region. Scattered cumulus through
the day with mainly southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A cold front
will move into the upstate this evening with possible middle level
ceilings. Increasing chances of rain late tonight and into
Saturday morning with restrictions possible in showers...stratus...and
fog lasting through the morning Saturday.
Extended aviation outlook...restrictions possible Saturday evening in
main concern remains river flooding and condition of area dams.
Dry conditions again today will allow flood waters to continue
subsiding across the area with dams slowly becoming more stable.
Several dams continue to cause concern and remain closely
monitored with some having levels drawn down.
Additional rainfall will occur tonight through Saturday night.
Rainfall amounts averaging around a half an inch are expected at
this time. With the ground still saturated...even this small
amount of rainfall may be able to cause minor rises and issues on
smaller streams and creeks...especially on areas that have not
been repaired. The good news is that the system will move through
rather quickly. Dry weather returns Saturday night through