Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1032 PM EDT sun Aug 2 2015
a weak pressure trough will remain in the forecast area through
Tuesday. Deeper moisture will remain suppressed east and south of
the area. Above normal temperatures expected through middle week.
Expect an increase in moisture towards the end of the week.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
convection has occurred along a weak frontal boundary draped
across the southern midlands and csra. North of the
boundary...across the Piedmont/upstate dewpoints were in the 50s
and south of the boundary dewpoints are in the upper 60s/lower
70s. 88d composite shows much of the convection has
diminished...but outflow boundaries continue to initiate some
Surface low pressure over the Florida Panhandle is forecast to
lift northeast into southern Georgia overnight. Moisture transport
ahead of the low could bring more showers/thunderstorms to the eastern
midlands late tonight. Models also indicate fog/stratus
development after midnight given dry air aloft...near calm wind
and ample low level moisture. Kept lows in the low/middle 70s.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Tuesday/...
models suggest weak low pressure over Florida Panhandle area will
move northeast along the South Carolina coastal front Monday and
Monday night. Moisture flux confined to the coastal South Carolina
as air mass inland remains mainly dry. There is some uncertainty
in the ensemble guidance...however the bulk of guidance suggests
low probability of precipitation across County Warning Area. Will continue low chance probability of precipitation Monday for
mainly the eastern midlands...mainly diurnal convection. Dry air
mass expected Tuesday with warming conditions...possibly near 100
degrees in a few areas as 850mb warm advection/down slope flow
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
models have been consistent showing a ridge over the central US
with a broad trough along the East Coast. Isolated afternoon
convection at most Wednesday afternoon. Moisture returns to the
region later in the week. Advertising probability of precipitation in the 30-40 percent
range Thursday through Sunday. High temperatures in the middle 90s
through mid-week...lowering into the lower 90s Thursday through
Sunday overnight lows generally in the lower to middle 70s.
Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/...
high low-level moisture and nocturnal cooling should result in a
return of stratus and fog late tonight. We have forecasted a
period of IFR conditions. Heating and mixing should diminish the
stratus and fog beginning around 14z.
Strong heating may help support thunderstorms Monday afternoon
but with continued shallow moisture expect limited coverage. The
chance was too low to include in the terminal forecasts at this
Extended aviation outlook...restrictions possible in late night
and early morning fog plus afternoon and evening thunderstorms.