Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
157 am EDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014
a dry cold front will move through the area late today and this
evening. Cool and dry air will filter into the region behind the
front through middle week. Fair and dry weather will continue late
week through the weekend with near normal temperatures.
Near term /through tonight/...
upper shortwave currently swinging through the northern forecast
area. Associated middle level cloudiness and light sprinkles will
exit the region later this morning as the shortwave moves off to
the east. Additional upper energy will dive southeast from the Great
Lakes region into the middle Atlantic and cut off. Cold front
expected to move through our region late today and this evening.
Limited moisture for the system to work with...so will maintain dry
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
cooler and drier air will work into our region behind the front.
Upper and surface lows off the middle-Atlantic coast will gradually
shift northeast...while high pressure over the MS River Valley
ridges into our area from the west. This will provide a continued
cool and dry flow.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
upper troughiness will remain over the east Continental U.S....maintaining a
dry northwest flow aloft for our region...with a dry front or trough or
two moving through. Temperatures generally near normal.
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
VFR conditions expected through the taf period.
Scattered middle and high clouds shifting east through the area early this
morning as an upper trough moves east. Expect generally clear skies
by sunrise. Still some chance of fog for a couple hours pre-dawn
but for now will keep an MVFR tempo group and watch trends over
the next few hours. Mostly clear skies over the region Tuesday
as a dry cold front approaches from the west and pushes east by
Tuesday evening. Light winds this morning becoming west-northwest
after daybreak generally under 10kt.
Extended aviation outlook...
no impacts to aviation expected.