Scientific Forecaster Discussion
area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
741 am EDT sun Mar 29 2015
near or below freezing temperatures expected early this morning
as the center of a cold air mass settles in overhead. The area of
high pressure will move offshore tonight. A front is expected to
move through early Monday afternoon providing a chance of showers.
Some moisture return expected middle to late next week and warming
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
surface ridge of high pressure to the northwest will residing over
the region today. Models indicate air mass quite dry. Low-level
jet around 10 to 15 knots early this morning. Low-level mixing
will be the strongest across the central and southern portions of
the forecast area this morning. Latest msas surface analysis
showing temperatures already at or below freezing across the
northern midlands...and above freezing elsewhere. Freeze warning
remains in effect for the entire area from 2 am until 10 am this
morning. Temperatures should climb back up above freezing across
the area by 14z...then with plenty of sunshine afternoon with
short wave ridge aloft. Readings will rise into the middle to
upper 50s...which is still around 10 degrees below normal.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
an upper level trough will track eastward overnight...pushing a
weak cold front towards the area also. Airmass will start off dry
tonight...but should begin to slowly modify as winds turn out of
the south. This will allow for slightly warmer overnight lows
tonight as low-level moisture begins returning. Even with the
moisture slowly returning and the front approaching...do not
expect any precipitation chances until closer to sunrise Monday morning.
Still have a lot of dry air to modify. Better rain chance should
occur early in the day Monday just ahead of the quickly moving
system. With precipitable water values still low...the precipitation may be brief and
light as it quickly moves through...and at this time it looks like
it will be east of the County Warning Area by early afternoon. Temperatures in the
lower to middle 60s north and central...with upper 60s possible in
the csra. Still below normal though. Monday night will be dry
behind the front...with lows in the 40s.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
dry conditions back through much of Wednesday. Another system
will move towards the area late Wednesday night into
Thursday...which will bring yet another rainfall chance to the
area. A cold front moves toward the region Friday or
Saturday...however model timing differences noted and confidence
remains low on details. Will continue with low chance to chance
probability of precipitation through the end of the period. Warming trend through the
period...with temperatures possibly above normal late in the
Aviation /12z Sunday through Friday/...
high confidence for VFR conditions through the 24 hour taf period as
high pressure builds into the area. Mainly clear skies. Surface
winds already shifting to the northeast as the center of high
pressure moves into NC/VA. Should see winds shifting to the south
during the afternoon as the area of high pressure moves off the
coast. Some middle-level clouds will begin to move into the area before
sunrise Monday morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
Extended aviation outlook...there could be a brief period of
showers and associated restrictions Monday as a fast moving
cold front crosses the region. No significant impacts to aviation
expected Tuesday. Increasing moisture and restrictions expected
late Wednesday into Thursday.
SC...freeze warning until 10 am EDT this morning for scz015-016-018-
Georgia...freeze warning until 10 am EDT this morning for gaz040-063>065-