Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1002 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014
further drying will occur behind the cold front tonight. The
pressure ridge behind the front will dominate through the weekend.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
further drying will occur behind the cold front tonight. Mixing
overnight should help hold up temperatures but with cold advection
expect lows in the middle and upper 40s. The temperature guidance
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/...
the pressure ridge extending through the Mississippi River valley
will direct dry air into the forecast area through Thursday night.
Expect mostly clear skies. Used the guidance consensus for the
temperature forecast. Expect lows around 40. Patchy frost may
occur in a few of the normally colder locations especially
Thursday night because of less wind.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
compared to the GFS the European model (ecmwf) was a little more pronounced with a
cold front Friday night. However...both models indicated dry air.
The models showed surface ridging dominating during the rest of the
medium-range period. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) displayed upper-level
troughing over the forecast area replaced by ridging beginning
Sunday. The GFS...ECMWF...and ekd MOS supported temperatures near or
a little above normal during the period.
Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions expected through the period.
A dry cold front has moved east of the taf sites this evening
bringing a few strato-cumulus to the region. Any lingering clouds
will dissipate overnight as the front moves farther east and
skies become clear. Fog not forecast tonight due to mixing in the
boundary layer and dry air mass. High pressure will ridge into the
forecast area for Wednesday with clear skies and VFR conditions
prevailing. Winds have shifted to northwesterly behind the front
at all of the terminals this evening and will remain out of the
northwest for Wednesday at 8 to 10 knots.
Extended aviation outlook...
no impacts to aviation expected.