Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
410 am EDT Friday may 29 2015
Bermuda high will continue to ridge into the region through the
weekend with a chance of diurnal showers and thunderstorms mainly
Sunday. A cold front will move into the area around the middle of
Near term /through tonight/...
models indicate rising heights today and tonight as a middle and
upper level ridge builds across the southeastern states. Rising
heights coupled with a slightly more stable airmass and a relative
minimum in precipitable water should keep the threat of convection low across
the midlands and csra. Afternoon highs are expected to range from
the middle 80s to around 90 degrees under mostly sunny skies.
Kept overnight lows in the middle and upper 60s which agree with MOS
consensus and persistence.
Short term /Saturday through Saturday night/...
upper level ridging will remain across the southeastern states
with upper troughing over the central Continental U.S.. models indicate the
return of instability and moisture on Saturday...along with a
chance for mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. It appears
the focus will be along the sea breeze...so will hold slightly
higher probability of precipitation across the eastern midlands. Afternoon highs will warm
into the upper 80s and lower 90s with lows in the middle and upper
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
both the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) keep the upper ridge along the
southeast coast early next week. At the surface...models try to
bring a back door cold front into the region. The GFS solution
would bring a deeper south to southwesterly flow...which would
bring Gulf moisture into the area as the front moves in. Winds
with the European model (ecmwf) would be more westerly and a little drier. It still
looks like a chance for convection each day so will continue to
carry 30-50 percent probability of precipitation each afternoon.
High temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s Sunday and Monday are
expected to cool a few degrees for the remainder of next week.
Nighttime lows hold in the 60s.
Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the 24 hour taf
forecast period...with the exception of localized brief MVFR visibilities
possible at fog prone ags/ogb early this morning.
Upper level ridge will continue to build slightly over the region
today with relative dry air remaining in place...reducing diurnal
convective coverage. Only an isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain at best.
Extended aviation outlook...late night/early morning fog possible.
Increasing chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Sunday