Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
232 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
a weak cold front will drift slowly to the south tonight and
Thursday. This will allow drier air to enter the region late
tonight and Thursday with mainly dry conditions. An increase
in moisture on Friday will give a slight chance of afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms. Hit or miss afternoon
and evening showers or thunderstorms are expected for the
weekend as well.
&&
Near term /through tonight...
frontal boundary across the southern midlands continues to sag
southward and will move through the csra this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms have developed along and south of the front with the
main concern being potential for heavy rainfall. Some cells are
currently producing heavy rain with some potential for flooding of
low lying and flood prone areas into this evening. Expect the
showers and thunderstorms to diminish with sunset and the front
continuing to move further south. Overnight the winds will slowly
become northeastward allowing Atlantic moisture back into the region
and some low clouds to form. With the clouds overnight temperatures
will range from the middle 60s over the northern midlands to the
upper 60s over the southern midlands and csra where clouds will
persist.
&&
Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
very weak upper low looks like it will remain over the southeast
states during the period. Lower probability of precipitation during the period as surface
front drifts more to the south bringing somewhat drier air to the
region. Expect very little or no activity Thursday...went with probability of precipitation
10 percent or less. However with weak upper low in the vicinity...
decided to include a low pop...20 percent for mainly Friday
afternoon and also decided to include a 20 percent chance north
part Friday evening. Temperatures 1-2 degrees below normal with
highs in the upper 80s and lows middle to upper 60s.
&&
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
medium range models in fairly good agreement with a weak upper
level low stuck in base of upper ridge affecting the southeastern
states through much of the period. This weak upper low appears
to lift out late in the period on Wednesday. Otherwise...the flow
around surface high pressure located off the Atlantic coast will
bring increasing moisture to the region. As a result we can expect
a chance of mainly diurnal convective activity...along with
seasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures in the upper 80s
Saturday and Sunday increase to the lower 90s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
mix of MVFR and VFR conditions through the taf period.
Frontal boundary remains across the southern midlands with showers
and thunderstorms along and south of the front. Expect ags/dnl/ogb
to be impacted by the showers and thunderstorms over the next couple
of hours with lighter showers in the cae/cub area. Showers will
diminish with loss of heating and the front continuing to sag
further south this evening. Overnight concern will be for fog and
stratus as the general flow turns northeastward. With the Atlantic
moisture moving in expect MVFR ceilings at cae/cub/dnl with IFR at
ags/ogb between 20/08z and 20/14z. Drier air will move into the area
during the morning and combine with mixing to return all sites to
VFR from 20/14z through the end of the period.
Extended aviation outlook...a slight chance of mainly
afternoon/evening thunderstorms through the period.
&&
Cae watches/warnings/advisories...
SC...none.
Georgia...none.
&&
$$
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