Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1031 am EDT sun Aug 2 2015

Synopsis...
a weak pressure trough will remain in the forecast area through
Tuesday. Deeper moisture will remain suppressed east and south of
the area. Above normal temperatures expected through middle week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
the upper-level pattern features a ridge out west with a broad
trough from the Great Lakes to the East Coast. Water vapor
satellite imagery showed dry air aloft across the midlands and
csra.

Weakening frontal boundary across the southern midlands this
morning should shift to the coast this afternoon. Fog/stratus
rapidly mixing out across the southern midlands and csra at 14z.
Skies becoming mostly sunny.

Models soundings indicate a dry and capped air mass over central
South Carolina today. Air mass weakly unstable in the east and
south midlands/csra. Possible sea breeze/outflow from coastal
convection could trigger a few isolated thunderstorms there this
afternoon. Maximum temperatures mainly in the middle to upper 90s.

The NAM and rap models suggest fog/stratus developing again late
tonight. Kept lows in the low/middle 70s.

&&

Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
models suggest weak low pressure over Florida Panhandle area will
move northeast along the South Carolina coastal front Monday and
Monday night. Moisture flux confined to the coastal South Carolina
as air mass inland remains mainly dry. There is some uncertainty
in the ensemble guidance...however the bulk of guidance suggests
low probability of precipitation across County Warning Area. Will continue low chance probability of precipitation Monday in the
extreme east midlands...mainly diurnal convection. Dry air mass
expected Tuesday with warming conditions...possibly near 100
degrees in a few areas as 850mb warm advection/down slope flow
develops.

&&

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
models have been consistent showing a ridge over the central US
with a broad trough along the East Coast. Isolated afternoon
convection at most Wednesday afternoon. Moisture returns to the
region later in the week. Raised probability of precipitation into the 30-40 percent
Thursday through Saturday. High temperatures in the middle 90s
through middle- week...lowering into the lower 90s Thursday through
Saturday. Overnight lows generally in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

Aviation /14z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR through the evening hours at cae/cub. Morning fog/stratus
affecting ags/dnl/ogb lifting. All taf sites should be VFR by
16z.

A weak surface boundary across the area with dry air north and
plenty of low level moisture to the south. A dry and capped
atmosphere will remain in place over most of the northern and
central midlands...and is expected to preclude convection. An
isolated diurnal shower or thunderstorm may occur mainly south
possibly near dnl/ags/ogb...but chances too low to include mention
in the tafs at this time.

Fog/stratus...possible late tonight/early Monday morning.

Extended aviation outlook...

Restrictions possible in late night/early morning fog.
Otherwise...no significant impacts to aviation expected.

&&

Cae watches/warnings/advisories...
SC...none.
Georgia...none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations