Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
141 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015
high pressure centered over Kentucky and Tennessee today will be
over Delaware-Maryland-Virginia Saturday. The high will direct dry air into the
Near term /through tonight/...
high pressure will direct dry and cool air into the forecast area
through tonight. Some strato-cumulus clouds and Alto-cumulus
mainly across the southern areas will move south of the area and
sky clear overnight. The pressure gradient is relaxing and light
winds expected after 00z. Strong nocturnal cooling/tonight.
Radiation scheme suggest potential for minimum temperatures below
MOS consensus...upper 40s to low 50s.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
high pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia
region Saturday will be off the coast Sunday. The models maintain
dry conditions in the forecast area although more of an onshore
flow will occur Sunday. The models display 500 mb ridging building
Sunday. All of the NAM...GFS...and European model (ecmwf) MOS have probability of precipitation less than
10 percent. Used the guidance consensus for the temperature
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) display the ridge circulating an onshore flow
into the forecast area during much of the medium-range period.
However...moisture appears to remain shallow with strong upper
ridging early lingering through the period. The GFS...ECMWF...and
ekd MOS have probability of precipitation of 20 to 30 percent with the higher values
toward the end of the period with a little weaker upper ridging.
The MOS has temperatures a slightly above normal through the
Aviation /17z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR through the period.
Strato-cumulus clouds moving to the south and east of the region
late this afternoon. Sky clear after Sunset. North to northeast
winds diminishing to light and variable. East winds on Saturday
with mainly clear skies.
Extended aviation outlook...no restrictions expected.