Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
607 am EDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015
high pressure will remain over the area today. Low pressure will
ride along the Gulf Coast and up the Atlantic coast late today
through Thursday...spreading moisture into our region. Dry high
pressure will return for Friday through Monday.
Near term /through tonight/...
high pressure will be in control of the region through this
afternoon as low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast and the
upper low digs toward the western Gulf Coast. This will push
moisture and cloudiness northward into the forecast area with
cloudiness...especially in the csra...increasing through the
afternoon. A few sprinkles may move into the csra before sunset.
High temperatures across the area mainly around 70 degrees.
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
precipitation will begin to spread across the region from
southwest to northeast tonight. By late tonight...additional
moisture will move northward as the low reaches the Florida Panhandle
resulting in showers becoming likely across the entire area by
daybreak Wednesday. Wednesday and Wednesday night the low will
cross Florida and track along the SC coast nearing the Outer Banks by
Wednesday morning. This will produce cloudy skies and rain across
the area for Wednesday into Wednesday night with rain chances
lowering toward sunrise Thursday. A weak in-situ wedge may develop
Wednesday...so high temperatures will struggle to reach 60...with
overnight lows Wednesday night in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
no changes to the extended forecast at this time. Models are in
good agreement through the long term with the upper low crossing
the region Thursday night and high pressure building back into the
region Friday night through the weekend. Have made only minor
adjustments to the long term as models are in agreement with the
most significant change being to add isolated thunder on Thursday
as cold air aloft with the upper low crosses the area. Although
chance for thunder currently appears low with heating possible in
some areas and lingering moisture there is some potential.
Temperatures through the long term will be below normal on
Thursday warming to near normal Sunday and Monday.
Aviation /10z Tuesday through Saturday/...
VFR conditions through at least 00z. MVFR conditions developing
after 06z with highest confidence in the ags/dnl terminal areas.
Cool and dry high pressure will dominate the region today.
Northeast winds expected mainly less than 15 knots. Moisture will
increase from the south late tonight with rain/developing and lower
ceilings forecast...MVFR...at ags/dnl toward the end of the taf
period. This is supported by latest lamp guidance.
Extended aviation outlook...a low pressure system tracking along
the Gulf Coast may result in widespread restrictions Wednesday.