Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
708 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014
a cold front will move through our region late today. Cooler and
drier air will enter our region behind the front for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Moisture will return to the region late in the week and
into the weekend...allowing for a chance of showers through the
Near term /through Tuesday/...
cold front continues to push through the midlands with area WSR-
88D network showing showers and thunderstorms moving eastward
through the low country. Satellite imagery and surface observation show
drier air blanketing areas along and north of I-20 with dewpoints
around 15 degrees lower than ahead of the front. Expect the drier
air to continue flowing into the area overnight with temperatures
dropping steadily with sunset as skies remain mostly clear.
Overnight lows remain on track for the middle to upper 60s for most
Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/...
fair weather. Front will push offshore Tuesday. An unseasonably deep
upper trough over the east Continental U.S. Will direct cooler and drier air into
our region through Wednesday...with weak high pressure center
building into the middle Atlantic.
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
as we enter into the longer term period...the main upper trough
axis will retrograde westward...which will put the area under a
more southwesterly upper flow...along with allowing a weak onshore
flow to develop off the Atlantic. This will bring moisture back
into the region...allowing for an increase in rain chances once
again as we enter into the weekend. Temperatures will remain below
normal through the period.
Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/...
mainly VFR through the period. Best chance for convection will be
Monday afternoon through evening 18z-24z as a cold front crosses the
An unstable atmosphere coupled with frontal lifting this afternoon
will cause scattered thunderstorm development after 18z. This
convection should intensify east of cae/cub...and maybe just east of
dnl/ags. Have indicated thunderstorms in the vicinity for ogb 21z-24z given uncertainty of
timing and coverage. Westerly winds generally 10 to 15 knots with
gusts 20 to 25 knots this afternoon before becoming northwesterly 5
to 10 knots behind the cold front this evening.
Extended aviation outlook...MVFR or lower conditions are possible
Friday as moisture returns due to an easterly flow off the Atlantic.
a combination of wind and high cloudiness provided warm min temperatures
this morning...82 at cae and 80 at ags.
Record high min temperature for Jul 28th at Columbia is 78
degrees last set in 1936.
At Augusta...the record high min temperature for July 28th is
82...also set in 1936.
Low temperatures for the calendar day are expected to be reached at
midnight EST..or 100 am EDT...tonight as cooler air enters the
region behind a cold front. So...some uncertainty as to whether
the daily high min temperature record for the calendar day of July 28th will
be tied or broken at cae. Current indications are that temperatures will
fall into the middle to upper 70s at cae by 100 am EDT.