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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
448 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. THE MAIN LINE OF STRONG WINDS AND SHOWERS HAS
SHIFTED TOWARD THE COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED DRASTICALLY AND QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
CHESTERFIELD DROPPED 28 DEGREES IN ONE HOUR BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL. GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY 
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST 
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE 
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL 
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.  
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY 
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE 
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE 
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD 
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.  
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.  
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH 
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT 
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A 
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF MYR A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE COASTAL 
PLAINS. WILL SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS WITH A SHOWERS AFFECTING 
AGS/DNL/OGB.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE THRU CAE/CUB 
BY 23Z...REACHING OGB BY 02Z AND AGS/DNL BY 04Z. WINDS BECOMING 
NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND THIS SECOND 
FRONT WITH CIGS BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER.

THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR CLOUD 
BASES BY 06/12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$




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