Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
716 PM EDT sun may 3 2015
dry high pressure will continue to ridge into the forecast area
through the middle of the week. Highs will be generally near or
a little above normal.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
high pressure moving into the Atlantic will continue to ridge into
the forecast area through tonight. Expect some high cloudiness
associated with a shortwave trough tonight. Skies should generally
be mostly clear tonight. Leaned toward the cooler temperature
guidance tonight because of the recent bias.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/...
surface high pressure will continue to ridge into the forecast
area Monday and Monday night. A weak disturbance will pass to the
north of the forecast area Monday afternoon but expect conditions
to remain dry with moisture being and a lack of a surface feature.
Kept temperature forecast in line with guidance which is near
normal for this time of year.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have surface ridging lingering through the
medium-range period with mostly clear skies and temperatures
near to a little above normal. However...the models have been
consistent with low pressure developing off the southeast
coast and there has been a trend with moisture extending farther
westward and toward the forecast area mainly Friday into Saturday.
Slight chance probability of precipitation for Friday in the east section with higher probability of precipitation
for the entire forecast area into the weekend. Forecast confidence
is low Friday and Saturday because of uncertainty with the
development and placement of the offshore system.
Aviation /23z Sunday through Friday/...
mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Light winds will become calm this evening. Mostly clear skies
expected overnight. The air mass remains dry...hindering fog
formation. However ags/ogb may have reduced visibilities again tonight
from shallow fog toward daybreak.
Extended aviation outlook...VFR conditions expected through the
period with high pressure over the region.