Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
256 am EST Friday Nov 28 2014
high pressure moving into the forecast area today will be over the
area tonight. The high will move off the coast Saturday. Moderating
temperatures will occur on the backside of the high Sunday and Monday.
Near term /through tonight/...
the approaching pressure ridge will extend through the forecast area
tonight. There will be much less wind today compared to yesterday
with a more relaxed pressure gradient closer to the ridge axis. Cool
temperature will continue. Strong net radiational cooling will occur
tonight. The temperature guidance was consistent.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday/...
the ridge will shift off the coast Saturday. Air mass modification
and the return flow on the backside of the high will result in
moderating temperatures. The temperature guidance was close.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show the ridge weakening ahead of the cold front
Monday. The models display the front moving through the area Monday
night and early Tuesday with a Wedge-Ridge pattern behind the
front. Isentropic lift appears weak with deeper moisture north of
the area Tuesday. We maintained low probability of precipitation. Leaned toward the cooler
temperature guidance because of the weak wedge pattern. The European model (ecmwf)
has indicated greater moisture Wednesday or Thursday with somewhat
more pronounced 500 mb troughing. The European model (ecmwf) MOS probability of precipitation were 40 to 50
percent compared to the GFS MOS near 10 percent. The GFS ensemble
mean and ekd MOS supported the low GFS MOS probability of precipitation. Confidence is low
with the forecast Wednesday and Thursday because of the model
Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions expected through the taf period.
Cool and dry high pressure will dominate the region through the
period. Light winds overnight plus dry air in place will preclude
any fog concerns.
Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts to aviation
expected Friday night through Tuesday.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for scz030.