Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
806 am EDT Friday Jul 31 2015
a weak cold front will slowly cross the area this morning then
shift toward the coast and become stationary through the weekend.
Highest chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into the
weekend will be across the southeast midlands. Temperatures will
be above normal.
Near term /through tonight/...
a cold front over central South Carolina this morning will slowly
move south through the afternoon. Could see isolated convection
along this boundary this morning.
Upper ridge out west with broad trough from the Great Lakes to the
East Coast. Trough amplifies today...will push weak front toward
the South Carolina coast. Models suggest front becoming nearly
stationary across the eastern midlands/coastal plain this
afternoon. Air mass near the front weak to moderately unstable and
with low level convergence and low level moisture...a few showers
and thunderstorms possible mainly in that region. Drier air
filtering in behind the front will limit convection to the west.
Models have trended drier...so lowered probability of precipitation from previous
forecast. MOS consensus cool bias to raised temperatures slightly
with limited cold advection behind front. Temperatures should warm
to the low to middle 90s this afternoon.
Slightly cooler tonight. MOS low temperatures in the low to middle
70s are consistent and have been accepted.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday/...
the weak frontal boundary will remain in the area through
Saturday. Convergence along the front combined with ample
moisture will promote a chance of showers and storms in the
eastern midlands. Based on model trends...reduced probability of precipitation central and
west. High temperature forecast near to slightly above
climatology...in the lower to middle 90s.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
models remain in fairly good agreement through the long term. The
broad trough will remain over the southeastern states through early
next week with the weak frontal boundary eventually dissipating.
The best moisture will remain along the coast. Sunday appears
drier so reduced probability of precipitation...showers should be mainly east of area with
front/convergence boundary likely near coast and air mass dry and
capped. By the middle of the week...the upper ridge over the
Southern Plains expands eastward and a weak Lee-side trough
develops across the area. Near to slightly above normal high
temperatures are expected...in the lower to middle 90s.
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions through much of the period. A frontal boundary over
central South Carolina at 12z will slowly move to the coast
through this evening. Direr and more stable airmass filtering in
from the north.
Isolated light showers crossing the central midlands in the vicinity
of cae/cub at 12z. Should see VFR conditions at all taf sites this
morning with cloud bases at or above 4000 feet.
Convection will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours
mainly at cae/cub/ogb. However...the potential for convection is
too low to mention.
Extended aviation outlook...low potential for restrictions in
scattered afternoon and evening convection Saturday through