Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1259 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
high pressure will prevail over the region today as temperatures
return to normal values in the upper 60s to around 70. A weak
cold front approaching from the northwest will move across the
area Sunday. No rainfall is expected with the front due to limited
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
morning fog has burned off under sunny skies across the midlands
and csra. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf Coast
states will weaken today as another cold front currently extending
from the Ohio Valley southwestward into the middle Mississippi Valley
pushes toward the region. Expect temperatures to rebound back to
near normal today with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
expected under mostly sunny skies.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/...
the surface ridge will be south of the forecast area tonight. A
weakening cold front approaching from the northwest will move into
the forecast area Sunday. The models show the front becoming more
diffuse Sunday night. There should be limited moisture associated
with the front with 850 mb westerly flow. The 500 mb flow appears
confluent. We kept the shower chance less than 20 percent as
supported by the GFS and European model (ecmwf) MOS. The temperature guidance was
consistent. Believe mild temperatures will continue.
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show ridging south of the forecast area
maintaining a dry air mass through Tuesday. The models show a slug
of moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico reaching our area
Tuesday night and Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. The front will likely move through our area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night. An average of the GFS...ECMWF...and
ekd MOS plus GFS ensemble mean support probability of precipitation around 40 percent
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Expect above normal temperatures
Monday through Wednesday ahead of the front...with cooling
Thursday and Friday.
Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
high confidence in VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Surface high pressure will remain in control over the region
through tonight providing mostly clear skies and no threat of
precipitation. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest
and cross the area on Sunday but little impact expected other than
a wind shift to the west northwest. Southwesterly winds around 10
miles per hour this afternoon will become light overnight then pick up to
around 5 to 8 miles per hour from the west after 15z Sunday.
Extended aviation outlook...possible MVFR restrictions with an
upper system crossing the region Tuesday night through Wednesday.
recent rainfall across our region and upstream areas leading to
rises on area rivers. Consult our website for the latest
information on any river flood warnings or advisories.