Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
401 am EST Sat Dec 27 2014
high pressure over the Carolinas will move offshore this afternoon.
A cold front will cross the area Sunday night into Monday bringing
Near term /through tonight/...
upper level ridging over the southeastern states will slowly weaken
through tonight. Surface high pressure over the Carolinas this
morning will move offshore this afternoon allowing a southerly
flow to return. A dry airmass across the forecast area will begin
to moisten this evening. Precipitable water less than one half inch will
increase between 1.O and 1.5 inches overnight.
The latest model run continues to trend slower with the movement
of the front and deep moisture return. Latest trends indicate a
dry forecast today with the chance of showers increasing across
the western midlands and upper Savannah River area overnight as
a cold front moves east of Mississippi River. Any rainfall
overnight will be light.
Went with persistence for high temperatures in the 60s today.
Increasing clouds will hold overnight lows in the 40s.
Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
southwest flow aloft will bring increasing moisture to the area.
Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will move east
allowing a cold front to move into the area Sunday night.
The best chance for showers will be west of the midlands and csra
Sunday...then increase Sunday night into Monday as the cold front
moves into the area. Should see the chance for rain decrease
Monday night as the cold front moves east and precipitable water decreases.
Above normal temperatures are expected with highs in the 60s to
lower 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Sunday night then
cool to the 40s Monday night.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) display strong Canadian high pressure centered
well west of the forecast area Tuesday...gradually building east
into our area by Friday. Dry weather is forecast Tuesday into
Thursday. Moisture is expected to return Friday as a warm front
lifts northward from the Gulf Coast states. The GFS...ECMWF...and
ekd MOS have probability of precipitation of 20 to 40 percent Friday. GFS and European model (ecmwf)
forecast 1000-500 mb thickness values indicate temperatures likely
will be warm enough for all liquid precipitation.
Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure will dominate the region through the period along with
mostly clear skies and light and variable winds. Concern remains in
regard to potential for patchy fog during the early morning hours
overnight. Will mention MVFR at cub/cae with possible brief IFR fog
ogb/ags before daybreak. Clouds ahead of the next system will begin
moving into the taf sites especially later in the period. Except for
the aforementioned threat of fog early this morning...VFR conditions
should prevail through the taf period.
Extended aviation outlook...restrictions possible tonight through
Saturday night through Monday as the next frontal system moves into
the area and stalls.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for scz030.