Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
101 am EST Monday Dec 29 2014
a cold front to the west will slowly make its way across the area
tonight and Monday bringing a continued chance for rain. Dry weather
and cooler temperatures will return by middle-week as high pressure
dominates. Another cold front will bring the threat of rain next
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
evening surface map shows a wavy front extending from western Virginia
southwestward along the foothills of the Appalachians to near atl
to surface low pressure in the western Florida Panhandle. Water vapor
imagery continues to show an upper ridge over Cuba with a large
positively tilted upper trough covering much of the western part
of the country. Shortwave energy rounding the base of the upper
trough is forecast to lift northeastward tonight and will initiate
another round of rain along and ahead of the cold front that will
cross the area on Monday. Upper support will be present in the
form of upward vertical motion associated with the right entrance
region of an upper level jet.
Pop forecast generally remains unchanged with low probability of precipitation over the
next couple of hours and then an increase in probability of precipitation late tonight
through Monday morning to categorical range. Temperatures will not
change much overnight under thick cloud cover and enhanced
dewpoints in the 50s.
Short term /6 am this morning through Tuesday night/...
the cold front will be slow to exit the forecast area as several
weak waves are expected to develop along the boundary. The chance
for rain continues Monday...then begins to tapers off late Monday
afternoon and Monday night as the cold front moves offshore and
drier air filters in from the west by Tuesday morning.
Above normal temperatures Monday will drop back into the 50s for
Tuesday. Overnight lows in the 40s Monday night will cool into
the 30s Tuesday night given mostly clear skies and light winds.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
strong Canadian high pressure will remain centered off to the west
of the forecast area on Wednesday and then gradually push
eastward into the southeast on Thursday. The high will then push
off the coast Friday. Dry weather is forecast Wednesday though
Thursday night...then moisture is expected to return through the
day Friday as a warm front lifts northward from the Gulf Coast
states. Models increase rain chances Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures will be on the chilly side Wednesday into
Friday...especially morning lows...but temperatures will increase Friday
into Saturday which will keep readings warm enough that the precipitation
will be all liquid.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
variable conditions giving way to IFR overnight.
Frontal boundary remains west of the taf sites and will move in
during the early morning hours. Variable conditions across the
area will continue to deteriorate over the next couple of
hours...with IFR/LIFR possible at times. Conditions will stabilize
at MVFR as rain ahead of the front moves into the area between 09z
and 11z. Rain is expected to persist into the afternoon with
conditions remaining MVFR...possibly lower...as low clouds with
the front slowly cross the region. Winds through the period will
be light and variable.
Extended aviation outlook...restrictions possible through early
Tuesday as the next frontal system moves into the area and stalls
just to the south.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for scz030.