Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
630 am EDT Sat may 25 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure ridging into the forecast area will dominate through
Sunday.
&&
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
dry high pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the
north today. It will be a sunny day through some thin high
cloudiness. Used the cooler temperature guidance based on upstream
temperatures and forecast consistency.
&&
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
the dry air mass will continue to dominate through Sunday night.
The models show a weak warm front developing near the forecast
area Sunday but the thunderstorm chance should remain low because
of the initial dryness and just weak isentropic lift. All of the
MOS displays probability of precipitation less than 20 percent. The temperature guidance
was close.
&&
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show the warm front lifting well north of the
forecast area early in the period. Ridging at the surface and
aloft appear to dominate. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) MOS indicate probability of precipitation 20
percent or less through the period.
&&
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high confidence in VFR conditions through the taf period.
Cool and dry high pressure will remain dominant over the area
through the taf period. Continue to expect mostly clear skies with
some cirrus drifting across the area along with light and variable
winds. With the dry air in place through tonight fog is not
expected.
Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts to aviation
expected Sunday through Wednesday.
&&
Cae watches/warnings/advisories...
SC...none.
Georgia...none.
&&
$$
