Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
643 am EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015
a cold front moving into the upstate will cross the forecast area
today. Limited moisture and dynamics with the front will result in
scattered showers with breezy conditions through the day. High
pressure and drier air will build into the region tonight and
remain dominant over the area into the weekend.
Near term /through tonight/...
cold front currently moving into the upstate will enter the
western midlands over the next couple of hours and cross the
midlands by late afternoon. Current WSR-88D network shows showers
moving into the upstate with isolated thunder...however infrared
satellite imagery shows cloud tops warming and becoming less
organized as the front interacts with the mountains. Expect some
shower activity as the front crosses the forecast area...with precipitable water
values of 1.4 inches or less expect rainfall amounts to be
generally less than one tenth of an inch with locally higher
amounts. Main concern for today will be winds which will be 10 to
15 miles per hour with gusts up to 25 miles per hour from late morning through the
afternoon hours...which will have the potential to cause some
trees to fall in the still saturated soils. Front will move
toward the coast late this afternoon with drier air building into
the area this evening and tonight resulting in clearing skies and
diminishing winds. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s with lows tonight in the lower to middle
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
high pressure along with cooler and drier air will continue
building into the region Wednesday and be centered over the
midlands Thursday afternoon. This will bring mostly sunny skies
and light winds to the area with no chance of rain. High
temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s Wednesday with
lower 70s on Thursday...overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s and slightly warmer along Lake Shores.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
models remain in good agreement through the long term with few
changes made to the forecast. High pressure will remain in
control of the region through Friday with a dry cold front
expected to cross the forecast area Friday evening into Friday
night. The main impact of the cold front will be to bring colder
air to the region for Saturday into early next week. Temperatures
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday and Saturday with
lower to middle 60s for Sunday and Monday...with overnight lows
around 50 Friday night falling to the lower 40s Sunday night.
Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
scattered showers moving through the region this morning but they
have been diminishing as they push eastward and should not result
in any restrictions at the terminals. Expect mainly a VFR forecast
through the next 24 hours.
A cold front pushing eastward into the mountains will cross the
region by tonight. Limited moisture is associated with the front
and downsloping westerly 850mb flow should limit showers pushing
east of the mountains. Will not include any mention of showers at
this time with only slight chance probability of precipitation in the forecast. Strong
850mb winds around 35-40 miles per hour will allow for gusty winds today
after the morning inversion breaks. Expect gusts in the 20-25 knot
range middle morning through the afternoon. Winds will generally be
southwesterly until the front passes when winds will then shift to
the west after 00z.
Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts are expected
during the outlook period.
river flooding continues along the Congaree River at Carolina
Eastman and along the North Fork of the edisto river in
Orangeburg. Some area dams remain a concern. Several dams remain
closely monitored with some having levels drawn down.