Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
730 PM EDT Thursday Aug 28 2014
a building upper ridge will keep very warm temperatures in the
forecast through early next week. Moisture will increase over the
weekend into early next week bringing back a low chance of
afternoon thunderstorms and higher humidity.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
upper level ridging and surface high pressure continue dominating
the region with clear skies and light winds. Clear skies overnight
will again allow for excellent radiational cooling with
temperatures slightly warmer than last night with most locations
in the lower to middle 60s with typically cooler outlying
locations slightly cooler.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Friday night/...
upper level ridge remains over the region. With winds more out of
the south...low level moisture will begin to slowly increase.
However with precipitable water values still less than 1.25 inches...and with
limited instability across the region...do not anticipate any
precipitation through the short term. Above normal afternoon
temperatures will continue in the middle 90s under mostly sunny skies
once again Friday. Lows Friday night will fall into the upper 60s.
Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
upper ridge continues over the area through the extended period.
Low-level moisture increases through the weekend and into early
next week with southeast flow off the Atlantic. Expect a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend into the
middle of next week. At this time it appears that any showers and
thunderstorms will be mainly diurnally driven with little upper
level forcing. Subsidence with upper ridge and 700 mb temperatures near
10c indicating some capping will be a limiting factor.
Temperatures will continue above normal through the remainder of
the long term period.
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
expect mainly VFR conditions during the taf period. Ridging will
continue to dominate. Light winds and clear skies will support
strong net radiational cooling. There may be enough low-level
moisture for fog during the early morning hours mainly at the
River-Valley terminals of ags and ogb. Used the GFS MOS and
forecasted a period of IFR at ags and ogb. Heating and mixing
should dissipate any fog around 13z. The pressure gradient will
remain weak. Winds will be light and variable but mainly
southeasterly beginning during the late morning or early
Extended aviation outlook...late night and early morning stratus
and fog may occur during the outlook period. There will also be
scattered mainly afternoon thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday.