Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
131 am EST Monday Feb 8 2016
a cold front will move through late this afternoon and
evening...with a chance of showers and breezy conditions. Dry and
cold weather expected tonight through Thursday with breezy
conditions. Another cold front will come through Friday...with
Near term /through tonight/...
upper ridge over the West Coast. Closed low over the western
Great Lakes. Upper disturbance will shift from the middle missisippi
valley southeast across our region late today and early evening. Strong
surface low currently offshore Cape Hatteras will shift rapidly NE
today...while a cold front currently moving into the Ohio
Valley rapidly sweeps through our region late this afternoon and
early evening. This front will have limited moisture to work with
given precipitable water values only around 0.5 inch. High
resolution models generally indicate band of showers moving
through the forecast area 19z-01z time frame. Accepted model consensus of
chance probability of precipitation. Breezy conditions expected ahead of and behind the
front for this afternoon and early tonight. Current indications
are wind gusts around 25 knots...just below Our Lake Wind Advisory
Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
upper ridge will remain over the west Continental U.S. With trough east Continental U.S.. a
general northwest atmospheric flow will maintain a feed of colder and
drier air into our region...with breezy conditions.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
continued cold and generally dry. Models maintain the upper ridge
west/upper trough east regime. Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) move a
reinforcing cold front through Friday. GFS has a little more
moisture with it. Given the overall pattern...will favor no probability of precipitation
at this time.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
expect VFR conditions throughout the taf forecast period.
Weak high pressure will build into the region briefly overnight in
the wake of the departing coastal storm. Satellite imagery showing
clear skies across the region and expect this to continue through
the morning before some higher clouds move in late morning ahead
of the next upper trough. A weak frontal boundary will cross the
area late Monday afternoon/evening although moisture appears
limited. Only a chance/slight chance of rainfall during the
afternoon and evening...too low to include at this time.
Southwesterly winds will increase after daybreak and through
Monday afternoon to around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to
25 knots. Mixing combined with a dry airmass will limit any fog
concerns later this morning or Monday night.
Extended aviation outlook...breezy conditions possible at times