Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
621 am EST Wednesday Dec 11 2013
expect dry and seasonably cool conditions through Friday. Rain
expected late Friday night through early Sunday. Fair weather
with seasonal temperatures expected early next week.
Near term /through today/...
fair weather expected. High pressure centered to our northwest will
continue to build southeast into our region...while gradually weakening
late today. Drier air will continue to filter in.
Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
fair and seasonably cool weather will continue. A dry reinforcing
cold front will move through tonight. A cool and dry air mass will
build into the area Thursday. Good radiational cooling conditions
expected Thursday night...with dry air and light winds.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
upper low near the SW Continental U.S. Will open and shift east across the
southern tier of states and into the middle Atlantic Fri/Sat. Surface
high pressure anchored over our region early Friday will shift
east late Friday/Friday nt in response...as surface wave approaches from
the west. GFS/European model (ecmwf) continue to appear to be in good agreement
with the associated moisture return/isentropic lift...though
perhaps slowing down timing a tad. Weakening surface ridge axis
and evaporational cooling is expected to lead to an in situ wedge
developing...at least across the northern forecast area. The system could be
slow to move out Sunday...as another upper trough approaches from
the west. High pressure expected to build into the area behind the
system for early next week.
Aviation /11z Wednesday through Sunday/...
high confidence for VFR through the taf period. High pressure
building across the region will bring dry air and light north
to northeast winds.
Extended aviation outlook...MVFR or lower conditions are likely
Friday night into early Sunday as moisture increases ahead of
a cold front which is expected to cross the area Saturday night.