Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
212 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2015
high pressure will be over the area today and tonight. The high
will be off the southeast coast Sunday. An approaching cold front
will move through the forecast area Monday morning.
Near term /through tonight/...
surface high pressure will remain centered over the forecast
area...with light and variable winds. Increasing middle and high level
cloudiness expected late today and tonight...but very dry low level
air will ensure fair weather.
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday night/...
low-level moisture is expected to be on the increase during the
day Sunday on southerly winds. The models keep deep moisture west
of the forecast area through the day. A cold front will be
approaching the region late in the day Sunday...and this is
expected to cause an increase in the probability of precipitation late Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Most of the day will be dry...but will forecast
slight chance/chance probability of precipitation late in the day. The best chance for
widespread rainfall will occur by midnight...and have generally
gone with categorical probability of precipitation from late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Overnight lows Sunday night will be mild ahead of the
front...with readings in the 50s.
Models remain close on a Monday morning passage of the cold front.
Will still have chance probability of precipitation early in the day before good drying
kicks in by the afternoon. Bigger issue on Monday will revolve
around the stronger winds. Models showing sustained winds around
20 miles per hour. BUFKIT momentum Transfer tool shows wind gusts over 30
miles per hour from late morning in the afternoon. This may require a lake
Wind Advisory...although the strongest winds should be confined to
the Lake Shores. From Monday night through Tuesday winds will
diminish. Dry conditions will prevail also during that time as
ridge remains across the region.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
some uncertainties come into play during the extended period
leading to low confidence. There are continued differences
between the European model (ecmwf) and GFS. There continues to be
timing...strength...and moisture differences...especially
Wednesday night Onward. At this time both models do seem to agree
that Wednesday will give US one more dry day. After that...the GFS
brings a large area of rainfall across the region Wednesday night
through Wednesday. Meanwhile the European model (ecmwf) keeps the rainfall well to
the south and then off the coast...keeping the County Warning Area dry. Will
increase probability of precipitation Wednesday night through Thursday...but no higher
than chance at this time. Slight chance probability of precipitation through
Friday. With low temperatures around freezing Thursday night/early
Friday morning...there is a risk of possible frozen
precipitation...especially across the northern counties. Will keep
slight chance probability of precipitation Thursday night...with a mention of rain/snow
mix over the northern counties. Both models do indicate drying
once again Friday into Saturday. Temperatures generally below
normal through the extended period.
Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/...
VFR conditions expected throughout the 24 hour taf period.
Dry high pressure will remain over the region today into
tonight...with light and variable winds. Very dry low level air and
some middle and high level cloudiness is expected to preclude any fog
concerns. High pressure will shift to our east early Sunday. Return
southerly flow will allow some moistening at low levels. Some
possibilities of MVFR ceilings before 18z Sunday...but confidence low.
Extended aviation outlook...cig/vsby restrictions possible...along
with shower activity...Sunday night and Monday morning. Breezy
conditions possible Monday.