Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
408 am EDT Friday Jul 25 2014
a weak front will remain nearly stationary across the region today
and weaken. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
today. Thunderstorms will be isolated Saturday as moisture becomes
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
Surface frontal boundary across the central midlands at 08z.
Scattered showers across the north midlands have diminished.
However showers now developing near the front/weak convergence
area across the east midlands. Front will remain in the area
today...but become more diffuse and deeper moisture shifting to
the coast. Weak convergence to continue through the afternoon with
weak to moderate instability...strongest to the east. Strongest
lift across the east with little upper level support expected.
Local WRF model indicates scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
central and east County Warning Area. Chance probability of precipitation...highest east. Slight chance in
the Piedmont and north. Temperatures...guidance has been too cool.
Despite clouds at times a degree or two cooler than yesterday at
most based on boundary layer temperatures.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/...
flat ridging builds across the southern states Saturday through
The cold front will become stationary/diffuse across the southern
South Carolina Saturday with deeper moisture to the east although
the air mass will be weakly to moderately unstable. Convection
more isolated on Saturday and Sunday with weaker forcing.
Temperatures above normal for the weekend. Prefer warmer mav
guidance through the period with recent cool bias of the met.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
models continue to trend toward an amplification of the long wave
pattern with a ridge in the west and a trough in the east.
The upper pattern once again amplifies early next week with a
ridge in the west and a deep trough. This should push another cold
front into the area late Monday into Tuesday. There should be a
good chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday ahead of the
front then mainly dry for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
builds in from the northwest.
Above normal temperatures Monday will cool into the 80s Tuesday
Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the period except for
possible MVFR fog at ags and ogb this morning.
Frontal boundary expected to move into the region this morning.
Models indicate a very slow movement in boundary throughout the
day. Widely scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain have redeveloped overnight and
continue across the northern/eastern midlands. Fog threat early
this morning will depend on extent of rain that may occur at the
terminals and extent of any lingering cloud cover...but guidance
leaning towards some MVFR fog at ags and ogb so will mention. Some
cumulus will develop through the day especially across the eastern portion
of the area. Will also carry a vcsh at ogb as frontal boundary
will nearly stall across the area by afternoon. Expect best chance
for convection along/south of I-20.
Extended aviation outlook...minimal convection expected Sat/sun.
Better thunderstorm chances Monday.