Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC
642 am EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will dominate the weather today before the next
front approaches the southeast U.S Thursday night. The weak cold
front will move through the forecast area on Friday.

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Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
morning WV loop shows ridging ahead of the next system beginning
to push eastward into the southeast this morning. At the
surface...high pressure will build over the area this morning and
then begin to move offshore tonight. Guidance and local
temperatures very close. Guidance has been slightly on the cool
side over the past several days and will stay just above guidance
for afternoon highs.

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Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
middle/upper level ridge will move across the region tonight and off
the coast by Friday morning. The short wave across the central/Southern
Plains this morning will continue to move east/northeast and will
be located across the Ohio Valley by Friday morning. A the
surface...a cold front will be approaching the area from the west
and will be located just west of the Appalachian Mountains by 12z
Friday. The low level flow will become southeast/south tonight into
Friday ahead of the approaching front. Expect an increase in
clouds across the area tonight into Friday. Storm Prediction Center day 2 has area in
a see text with the potential for widely scattered strong storms
Friday from midday/afternoon. Models indicate that the airmass on
Friday with daytime heating will become moderately unstable. Best
shear will be across southeastern NC and the Pee Dee...but best
instability will be across central/eastern SC. The main limiting
factor will be the amount of low level moisture and the fact that
the main short wave will be moving northwest of the region. The cold
front will move across the region Friday night with clearing
conditions. Guidance and local temperatures through the period are
very close and have stayed near/slightly above guidance. Probability of precipitation
continue to be rather low and have gone a little higher due to the
threat of isolated severe weather on Friday. The main threat would
be strong wind gusts and hail with wb zero values less than 10k
feet.

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Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Saturday looks good across the County Warning Area with middle/upper level ridging
building across the area and weak high pressure dominating at the
surface. The remainder of the long term period remain uncertain.
The extended period...per both GFS and European model (ecmwf)...as a cutoff upper
low over the Central Plains that slowly moves eastward into the Ohio
Valley by Wednesday. Low-level moisture will increase across the
region as well as chances for showers and possible thunderstorms
Sunday night into the middle of the week. Temperatures generally
close to normal but cooler temperatures expected by mid-week.

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Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...

VFR today and early tonight. Dry low level air currently in place
with NE winds. High center to our north will shift east today...and
a front will approach from the west...leading to veering low level
winds and increasing moisture late today with some stratocu
cloudiness expected...with VFR bases. Late tonight...MVFR ceilings...and
possibly visibilities...expected to develop as southeast low level flow
continues.

Extended aviation outlook...the front will cross the region Friday
with the potential for some showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Breezy
conditions also possible Friday. Restrictions possible at times
Monday through Wednesday associated with a slow moving system.

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Cae watches/warnings/advisories...
SC...none.
Georgia...none.
&&

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