Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
828 PM EST Tuesday Feb 9 2016
a cold and dry pattern expected Wednesday through Sunday...as a
persistent northwest upper flow continues to direct cold dry air into the
region. Breezy conditions to continue Wednesday.
Near term /until 7 am Wednesday morning/...
upper trough over the eastern Continental U.S. Will lift slightly to the
northeast tonight. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter
into the region through the overnight hours. Still seeing snow
flurries and a few isolated snow showers mainly over the northern
and western portion of the area as of 0130z. No accumulation or
impacts are expected. Observations show much drier air along the
NC/SC border tonight with dewpoints at Lancaster and Cheraw
currently 10 degrees whereas just a little further south at
Newberry and Winnsboro dewpoints are in the 20s. Pressure gradient
between surface low pressure to our NE and surface high pressure
to our west will lead to breezy conditions tonight. A lake Wind
Advisory remains in effect through tonight and into Wednesday.
Although wind gusts over land areas will diminish some
tonight...gusty conditions expected to continue on warmer area
lakes. Overnight lows will be in the 20s with wind chills in the
Short term /7 am Wednesday morning through Friday night/...
cool dry pattern will continue with upper ridge remaining over the west
Continental U.S....and trough east Continental U.S.. with high pressure continuing to feed
into the region breezy conditions are expected again. Maintained
lake Wind Advisory through Wednesday evening. A weak front will
move into the region late Thursday into Friday morning. An upper
level disturbance will develop the system as it moves off the
coast. Moisture continues to appear limited.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
another cold dry airmass behind the reinforcing front shifts into
our region Saturday and Sunday. Models indicate upper levels to
transition to a more zonal pattern early next week...with upper
energy and some moisture affecting our region by Sun night/Mon.
Moisture advection over the lingering high pressure may produce a
wedge over the forecast area Monday. With surface temperatures
possibly nearing freezing in the northern midlands...precipitation
type could come into question. However rain appears most likely at
Aviation /01z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions are forecast throughout the taf period. Gusty winds
are the main concern.
Tight pressure gradient across the region with low pressure over the
northeastern states and high pressure building across the central
Continental U.S.. a weak disturbance crossing the region resulting in VFR
ceilings around 4000-8000 feet. Scattered flurries possible through
03z in a cold advection pattern. Clouds expected to clear 06z-09z.
West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 25 knots will diminish
by 03z then become strong and gusty again after 12z.
Extended aviation outlook...MVFR ceilings possible Thursday night
into Friday as a low pressure system affects the region.
Georgia...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST Wednesday for gaz040-
SC...lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST Wednesday for scz015-016-