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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Billings Montana
302 am MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Short term...valid for today and sun...

A quiet and warm weekend in store for the region. Upper level
system that brought a few thundestorms to the area last evening is
over southern Canada moving into North Dakota this morning. Behind
this system ridging and dry air will build into the area for a
mostly sunny and dry day. Winds will slacken off through the day
and temperatures will be near 70 degrees this afternoon. Another
upper system slides east along the Canadian/Montana border on
Sunday. This will bring slightly cooler air and gusty winds back
to the region. However dynamics are weaker than with fridays
system and the lower levels of the atmosphere are drier so not
expecting any precipitation at this point. Chambers

Long term...valid for Monday...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Message is becoming clear that weather transition will begin on
Tuesday with unsettled Wednesday and Thursday with a break in the
active weather pattern for Friday and Saturday. Chances continue
to decrease for a long duration widespread precipitation event for
southern Montana and north central Wyoming but it will be a wetter
period Wednesday and Thursday.

Monday should be a pleasant day with temperatures well into the
60s with lighter winds. Tuesday continues the mild weather with
better mixing as the airmass begins to destabilize in response to
falling heights. Eastern areas will be a little cooler as easterly
surface flow develops.

Big picture a large trough of low pressure is moving through the
Pacific northwest Tuesday into western Montana on Wednesday.
Favorable pattern for increasing moisture and chances of shower
activity Monday tonight through Tuesday especially for the
mountains. By Wednesday shower activity will become more
widespread across the region. Trough axis lifts through central
and eastern Montana slightly negatively tilted on Wednesday and
pushes a cold front through the area. Looks unsettled and
supportive of shower activity but strong forcing for significant
precipitation looks to focus northwest of the area where upslope
and better moisture transport will be factors. GFS is the wetter
of the models with a more mature system impacting the area
Thursday with more wrap around moisture reaching southern
Montana. European model (ecmwf) keeps the system more open. Important factor is
the best precipitation on the GFS would occur with colder
temperatures so snowmelt will be decreasing in contribution when
the best chance for rain occurs.

Thursday looks like the coolest day with high temperatures barely
reaching the 50s. Friday temperatures rebound as moisture
decreases and heights begin to build. Saturday looks to be in
between systems. Borsum



VFR conditions with decreasing winds through the day. Southwest
winds will increase for klvm overnight. Borsum

Preliminary point temp/pops...

Today sun Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
bil 069 043/067 039/069 044/072 046/057 038/050 032/051
0/u 01/north 00/u 12/T 45/west 44/west 32/west
lvm 067 039/063 038/070 041/071 039/053 033/052 030/057
0/u 11/u 00/b 25/T 66/west 43/west 32/west
hdn 069 038/069 035/070 039/075 041/058 034/051 031/053
0/u 01/u 00/u 12/T 45/west 44/west 32/west
mls 068 038/068 035/067 040/071 044/061 036/050 030/049
0/u 01/north 00/u 01/b 35/T 45/west 42/west
4bq 068 039/070 035/069 042/075 044/062 033/052 030/050
0/u 01/north 00/u 02/T 25/T 45/west 42/west
bhk 062 036/067 034/065 039/067 044/063 034/047 026/046
0/u 01/north 00/u 01/north 35/T 45/west 42/west
shr 067 038/067 035/069 039/076 042/058 037/050 031/051
0/u 01/u 00/u 02/T 34/west 44/west 32/west


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