Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Billings Montana
731 am MDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015
Updated forecast to add patchy fog mention for River Valley
locations east of a Forsyth to Sheridan line. High cloud cover
over the top of this fog may allow it to persist until 11 am or so
in some spots. Visibility has been around 1 to 2 miles in the
most locations. Drivers on I-90 around Sheridan and I-94 around
Miles City should be alert for restricted visibilities. Chambers
Short term...valid for today and Thursday...
A Pacific trough has start to work its way through Montana. As it
does...cloud cover and rain chances will increase. The best
chances will be over the mountains...but probability of precipitation will spread into
southern Montana this evening as a weak cold front pushes
through. The frontogenesis is relative weak so it does not looks
like there will be much precipitation from this. As the front is moving
through winds make become a bit breezy this afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow behind the front...only in
the upper 60s. The ridge will begin reassert itself...but there
will be enough leftover energy and moisture that the mountains
will see a very slight chance of rain during the day tomorrow.
Long term...valid for Friday...Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...
Breezy and warm Friday and Saturday as a flattening ridge axis
moves across the area with Saturday looking to see 80 degree
readings. By Sunday a front will cross the region bringing a
even windier but cooler day with increased middle level moisture but
this will mainly bring clouds and a few mountain showers.
Flow pattern for next week stays pretty steady with flow west
northwesterly and weakly anticyclonic for above normal
temperatures and breezy especially due to afternoon mixing.
Should be dry through the period. Borsum
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period though some
reduced visibilities from fog will impact kshr into the middle
morning hours. A cold front will move through the area today with
middle and high level moisture and increasing northwest winds. Only
mountain top obscurations are expected with isolated showers.
Showers will spread into the adjacent foothills in the early
evening and begin to impact klvm...kshr and kbil overnight though
VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Borsum
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Today Thursday Friday Sat sun Monday Tuesday
bil 074 050/068 051/079 053/083 055/074 045/075 049/071
1/b 31/east 11/b 00/u 01/north 10/north 11/b
lvm 071 046/068 047/079 048/081 050/069 043/073 044/070
2/west 42/west 10/north 00/north 02/west 11/north 11/north
hdn 075 048/069 047/081 049/084 051/076 044/076 046/073
0/b 31/east 10/b 00/u 01/north 00/b 11/b
mls 074 049/068 048/079 052/084 053/076 045/074 047/071
0/b 11/b 00/b 00/u 01/north 10/b 10/u
4bq 076 050/067 047/078 050/085 051/078 044/075 046/071
0/b 32/west 00/b 00/u 01/north 10/u 00/u
bhk 073 046/065 044/076 050/083 050/075 044/072 045/068
0/b 11/b 00/b 00/u 01/north 10/north 10/north
shr 076 046/066 044/079 046/085 047/078 042/076 043/072
0/b 33/west 10/b 00/u 01/north 10/u 10/u