Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Billings Montana
306 am MDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015
Short term...valid for today and Wednesday...
The forecast looks to be on track...thus have not made many
changes in the short term. Fire weather continues to be the main
concern in the forecast. Ahead of an approaching through...
temperatures will warmup considerably...with with highs near
record highs across the area. Expect relative humidiities to
bottom out around 10 percent.
This afternoon...the combinations of deep mixing to around 300 mb
and a developing surface trough will producing increasing winds.
Expect winds around Livingston to be 15 to 25 miles per hour this
afternoon...with gusts to 30 miles per hour. Rain chances will increase
through the afternoon as the front begins to move through. There
is some elevated cape...so scattered thunderstorms west of a line
from Harlowton to Big Timber are possible. The front will move
through this evening increase winds across the rest of the area.
Not much recovery is expected in humidiities overnight.
Wednesday will be cooler...though with the dry air behind the cold
front...relative humidities are still expected to low during the
day tomorrow. With large pressure rises behind the front
tomorrow...winds will be strong...25 to 35 miles per hour with gusts up to
50 miles per hour. The strongest winds are expected during the afternoon with
mixing during peak heating. Wind should begin to decrease tomorrow
evening as the atmosphere begins to decouple.
Have left the red flag warming in place...with no changes needed.
Long term...valid for Thursday...Fri...Sat...sun...Mon...
The overall theme for the extended is a cooler and more unsettled
weather pattern across the region. Although nothing looking overly
organized to be high impact weather.
An unstable northwest flow will be in place across the region on
Thursday. Hints of some low level upslope developing as well which
will all work to enhance our precipitation chances...especially
south and west of Billings into the mountains and foothills. As
upper heights begin to build back over the region Friday...some of
these showers will linger in eastern Montana before dry conditions
return for Saturday for the entire area.
Trough forecast to dig along the West Coast by Sunday and slowly
shift east across the region early next week. This will keep
temperatures closer to seasonal levels and keep a chance for
showers in the forecast. Frieders
VFR conditions will prevail into tonight. Winds and clouds will
be on the increase ahead of the next front. Southwest winds will
become gusty this afternoon...especially west of kbil...with
gusts to 35 kts along the foothills including klvm. A few showers
and even a thunderstorm is possible in and near the
mountains...including klvm...late this afternoon. This evening
winds will shift to a northwest direction and remain gusty.
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Today Wednesday Thursday Friday Sat sun Monday
bil 078 042/058 033/049 032/056 036/057 034/056 034/055
0/north 41/north 13/west 30/b 00/b 12/west 33/west
lvm 076 037/052 027/047 026/053 032/052 029/052 026/052
2/T 64/west 24/west 31/b 00/b 23/west 43/west
hdn 081 040/061 030/050 028/058 031/059 033/059 034/058
0/b 41/north 12/west 21/b 00/b 11/b 33/west
mls 081 040/060 031/049 028/057 030/059 034/059 034/056
0/b 21/north 12/west 12/west 00/b 11/b 33/west
4bq 082 039/060 029/048 025/055 028/059 032/061 033/059
0/b 21/north 12/west 11/b 00/u 01/b 22/west
bhk 078 036/058 028/045 024/053 027/056 032/058 032/054
0/b 21/north 12/west 12/west 00/u 01/b 32/west
shr 079 037/053 028/048 025/052 027/056 029/057 030/056
0/b 42/west 13/west 21/b 00/u 11/b 32/west
Montana...red flag warning in effect from noon today to 9 PM MDT
Wednesday for zones 28>42-56>58-63>68.
Wyoming...red flag warning in effect from noon today to 9 PM MDT
Wednesday for zones 98-99.