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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Billings Montana
727 PM MDT Monday Sep 1 2014


Area convection and gusty winds have rapidly dissipated with
sunset across the area. Expect mostly clear skies and light winds
overnight. This combined with low dew points will bring a chilly
morning tomorrow. Went several degrees below guidance temperatures
tonight with strong radiational cooling potential. Some western
valley locations could see lows in the 30s overnight along with
area mountains...while the rest of the area will see lows mainly
in the 40s. Chambers


Short term...valid for Tuesday and Wednesday...

A weak disturbance combined with cold air aloft is resulting in
an unstable northwest flow aloft across the forecast area this
afternoon. As a result...a few showers and isolated thundestorms
have developed across our eastern counties. Satellite showing
plenty of cumulus around except just east of the beartooth/Absaroka
Mountains as gusty southwest winds look to be downsloping that
area as skies are mostly clear. An isolated shower or thunderstorm
will be possible through early evening mainly east of a Roundup-
Billings-Sheridan line. Expect skies to clear quickly around or
shortly after sunset leaving a mostly clear night across the
forecast area.

Tuesday will see mostly sunny skies along with warmer
temperatures as 850mb temperatures rebound to around 15-25c
resulting in temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A strong
cold front approaches our far western zones by Wednesday bringing
a slight shower chance to these areas. The bulk of the upper
energy looks to stay to our north as an upper low moves across the
Canadian border. The front is expected to move through the
forecast area from middle afternoon to early evening brining a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Winds will become gusty from the
northwest behind the front especially across our eastern zones
Wednesday night. High temperatures Wednesday will be reached
early across our western zones with readings only reaching the
upper 60s to lower 70s. However...temperatures will most likely
reach the upper 70s to lower 80s across the east as the front is
not expected to reach those areas until late in the afternoon.

Long term...valid for Thursday...Fri...Sat...sun...Mon...

Trough of low pressure will move in from the West Coast on
Thursday with GFS/ec/Gem all consistent in bringing strong
vorticity across the area. Moisture will be limited as the
flow aloft turns to the northwest and pulls drier air into
the area and see little chance of any precipitation across
the area. Weak trough over the area through Friday and the
lower heights will bring below normal temperatures of 5 to
10 degrees. Weak ridging aloft will build in over the area
this weekend. Except for a few mountain showers...a return
to normal temperatures can be anticipated. Flow aloft will
become southwest as a trough of low pressure moves in from
the west on Sunday night into Monday. Showers are expected
over the mountains and nearby foothills. Models indicate a
thermal ridge build over southern Montana and temperatures
will rise to above normal both Sunday and Monday. Richmond



VFR conditions will prevail tonight with no aviation hazards
expected. Chambers

Preliminary point temp/pops...

Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Sat sun Monday
bil 048/080 053/076 048/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
00/u 02/T 21/b 11/b 12/T 21/u 11/u
lvm 041/080 045/074 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
00/u 02/T 21/b 11/b 12/T 21/u 22/west
hdn 047/080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
00/u 01/u 21/b 11/b 12/T 21/u 11/u
mls 050/079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
00/u 01/u 21/b 11/b 11/u 11/u 11/u
4bq 048/080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
00/u 01/u 21/b 12/T 21/b 11/u 11/u
bhk 048/076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
00/u 01/u 21/b 11/b 11/b 11/u 11/u
shr 044/079 048/080 048/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
00/u 00/u 21/b 22/T 22/T 22/west 22/west


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