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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Billings Montana
238 PM MDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Short term...valid for Tuesday and Wednesday...

A quiet night is expected across the forecast area with just a
slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm over the
beartooth/Absaroka Mountains. Light northeast winds will help to
keep some low clouds around the area and given not much mixing any
smoke from the Canadian wildfires will linger through the
evening...mainly across our eastern areas. However...winds are
expected to become southeast late tonight and this combined with a
westerly wind at 700mb should shift most of the smoke out of our
area.

Tuesday & Wednesday...a cool front will move across the forecast
area Tuesday afternoon and evening shifting the winds to the
northeast. This front will bring a slight chance for a shower or
thunderstorm across the entire area. Another weak disturbance will
move across the forecast area Wednesday bringing continued chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Convective available potential energy and shear are fairly weak so
strong to severe thunderstorms are not expected.
However...precipital waters are around an inch so some heavy rain
will be possible with any storm. Temperatures for the next couple
of days will remain below normal with readings in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Hooley

Long term...valid for Thursday...Fri...Sat...sun...Mon...

Southwesterly flow aloft will keep the weather somewhat
interesting during the extended period. Beginning Thursday...an
upper level low pressure circulation will be spinning over central
California. As this low moves eastward...heights over the northern
plains will start to rise...bringing daytime highs back into the
middle 80s by this weekend. This type of pattern is conducive to
afternoon convection...especially over the higher terrain...so
kept probability of precipitation in the forecast for those favored areas almost every
afternoon.

Other than a few minor impulses...the ridge should remain firmly
in place until the beginning of next week. The best chance for any
widespread precipitation will be Friday night into Saturday when a
few ripples in the upper level height field may trigger a
thunderstorm or two. At this point...the severity for such
activity looks to be minimal. If anything...they could potentially
be heavy rain producers...especially over the eastern two thirds
of the County Warning Area...as precipitable water values are prognosticated to be well over an inch.
Singer

&&

Aviation...

Smoke from Canadian fires will continue to reach portions of
south central Montana the rest of today. Visibilities have been
fluctuating at all terminals...with occasional haze. Expect more
of the same to continue into this evening with temporary MVFR and
IFR conditions. Conditions should mix out better on Tuesday...with
some lingering smoke issues still possible. Singer
&&

Preliminary point temp/pops...

Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Sat sun Monday
-----------------------------------------------------------
bil 056/083 057/079 058/086 062/089 062/087 062/091 063/092
02/T 22/T 11/b 22/T 22/T 11/b 11/u
lvm 050/081 051/079 052/084 055/086 055/083 054/088 055/090
13/T 33/T 23/T 23/T 33/T 22/T 11/b
hdn 056/084 057/083 057/088 060/093 060/090 060/093 061/095
03/T 22/T 11/b 22/T 32/T 11/b 11/u
mls 056/084 059/083 059/088 063/095 064/090 064/091 065/093
02/T 22/T 11/b 12/T 22/T 22/T 11/b
4bq 055/081 057/082 058/085 063/093 062/089 063/090 063/091
03/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 22/T 21/b 11/u
bhk 051/079 056/079 054/083 061/092 061/088 061/087 061/087
02/T 32/T 11/u 12/T 22/T 22/T 12/T
shr 052/081 055/077 054/081 056/086 056/085 056/088 057/089
14/T 34/T 23/T 23/T 22/T 11/u 11/b

&&

Byz watches/warnings/advisories...
Montana...none.
Wyoming...none.

&&

$$
Weather.Gov/Billings

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