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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Billings Montana
940 am MDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Update...

A weak disturbance currently moving south out of northeast
Montana will bring an isolated shower/thunderstorm chance this
morning to our far eastern zones this morning and afternoon. As a
result...added a slight pop chance for those areas for this
morning as slight chance is already in the forecast for this
afternoon. Have also added a few more clouds across our central
and eastern areas. Otherwise...no other updates needed to the
forecast for today. Hooley

&&

Short term...valid for today and Friday...

Just a few new subtle wrinkles in our persistent Rocky Mountain
ridge pattern. Short wave dropping S/southeast out of Canada producing
quite a bit of convection over NE Montana early this morning.
Instability and surface convergence due to this feature is prognosticated
across our Dakota borders later today with a few models producing
some quantitative precipitation forecast in this area. Thus...will continue to carry some low probability of precipitation
along our eastern border this afternoon. Diurnal mountain activity
expected again late today. Some model indication of isolated
activity across our central zones as well...including
Billings...by evening. This may turn out to be just some build ups
that do not amount to much more than sprinkles...but the trend
is consistent across more than one model. Have opted to add some
low probability of precipitation this evening to central zones.

For Friday...latest models keep bulk of monsoonal impulses to our
west...so decided to lower probability of precipitation just a bit for Friday in our west
and central zones. Bt

Long term...valid for Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Seasonal temperatures and isolated thunderstorm chances continue
for the next week...with the best chance for precipitation on Tuesday.
Ridge persists over the area Saturday for mainly dry and hot
conditions. Ridge gets knocked down some Sunday and Monday with
Pacific energy moving in from the west for more widespread
isolated thunderstorm chances and slightly cooler
temperatures. Best chance for precipitation comes Monday night
through Tuesday night as models drag a stronger disturbance and
monsoonal moisture north from the Great Basin. Cloud cover and
shower activity will help hold temperatures down Monday and
Tuesday for highs in the low to middle 80s...and possibly a few upper
70s on Tuesday for southeast Montana. Ridge builds up the Pacific
coast Wednesday into Friday next week resulting in more of a
northwest flow pattern over the area for seasonal temperatures and
continued low chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Chambers

&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today. Isolated shower
and thunderstorm activity is possible over southeastern Montana through
the day. Isolated high-based thunderstorms will also form over the
mountains this afternoon and perhaps drift into the plains late in
the day into the evening. Locally gusty winds to 40 knots could occur
with those high-based storms. Schultz/Chambers

&&

Preliminary point temp/pops...

Today Friday Sat sun Monday Tuesday Wednesday
-------------------------------------------------------
bil 092 061/092 062/091 062/091 062/087 062/086 060/089
0/b 20/b 01/b 22/T 22/T 33/T 21/b
lvm 090 055/090 055/089 055/089 053/086 054/086 052/088
2/T 22/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 22/T
hdn 093 058/094 058/094 060/093 059/089 059/087 058/090
1/u 20/b 01/b 22/T 22/T 33/T 22/T
mls 094 062/094 062/093 064/092 063/089 062/085 060/087
2/T 10/u 01/u 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
4bq 092 059/092 059/093 061/093 061/089 061/082 057/086
1/b 01/u 11/u 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
bhk 091 055/091 056/090 057/089 058/087 056/082 058/083
2/T 11/u 11/u 12/T 22/T 23/T 32/T
shr 089 057/089 055/090 056/089 056/085 056/080 054/086
0/u 01/u 12/T 22/T 23/T 33/T 32/T

&&

Byz watches/warnings/advisories...
Montana...none.
Wyoming...none.

&&

$$
Weather.Gov/Billings

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