Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Billings Montana
934 PM MST Monday Dec 9 2013
Minor update this evening to cancel Winter Weather Advisory for
eastern and central portions of the County Warning Area. Winds were only gusting
to around 25 miles per hour...and appeared to decreasing. Kept advisory
going in the west including Livingston to Big Timber...the
beartooth and Red Lodge foothills...as well as Wheatland
Sweet Grass...and Golden Valley counties. Gusts of 50 to 60 miles per hour
were still occurring. Aag
Short term...valid for Tuesday and Wednesday...
Strong and gusty west to southwest winds continue to impact
south central and southeast Montana...with strongest gusts
approaching 70 miles per hour in Livingston and Big Timber. Additionally a
quick shot of moderate to heavy snow hit areas from Miles City to
Baker and south this afternoon...dropping a quick inch or 2 of
snow...but snow is beginning to taper off. Wind related winter
weather issues will continue across the region today...with
blowing and drifting snow. We will transition back to a snow event
for Tuesday across much of the region...as a couple of shortwaves
slide across the region in strong northwest flow.
Winds will trend downward tonight...as the short wave exits the
region...most significantly east...but western areas should slowly
trend downward as well.
The snow event expected in many areas continues to look on
track...as another short wave trough rides southeast across the
region. Most significant impacts appear to be for the east...but
snow snow should spread all the way to the beartooth and Red Lodge
foothills. Continued with going numbers at this time.
Snow showers clear to the south Tuesday night. Northwest flow
persists into Wednesday. A slow transition to zonal type westerly
flow begins Wednesday afternoon. Expect to see mainly clear
conditions...with temperatures climbing to around freezing most areas.
Long term...valid for Thursday...Fri...Sat...sun...Mon...
Not many changes made to the extended forecast package this
afternoon as the going numbers were in good shape.
Extended period begins Thursday with the region under the
influence of northwesterly flow aloft. This type of pattern is conducive
to downslope winds...with a surface trough forming at the surface
east of The Rockies by the end of the week. These winds should
help moderate temperatures across the region. A tremendous warmup
is not expected though...as this could be categorized as more of a
Klondike Chinook wind pattern due to the fact that temperatures
west of The Divide are still prognosticated to be quite cold.
As far as snow is concerned...higher elevations may see some
potential with a few of the weaker vorticity maxes passing through the
northwesterly flow. However...for the plains...chances are quite
low throughout the extended. Singer
Strong SW winds will continue at klvm tonight into Tuesday
morning...with gusts of 40-50 kts and visibility as low as a mile
at times due to blsn. Winds and blsn will decrease elsewhere
tonight...with flight conditions improving to VFR. On Tuesday...an
Alberta clipper will bring a period of snowfall to areas from kbil
east...and expect MVFR to IFR flight conditions. Wind gusts of
30-40 kts will continue at klvm. Jkl
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Sat sun Monday
bil 014/023 005/029 020/033 018/034 015/034 021/033 022/033
16/j 51/b 11/b 11/b 11/b 11/b 11/b
lvm 010/022 007/026 020/032 021/034 019/032 021/030 021/028
24/j 42/j 11/north 12/j 11/b 11/north 21/b
hdn 012/022 901/027 014/035 015/032 012/032 019/033 020/033
28/j 51/b 11/b 11/east 11/b 12/j 11/b
mls 009/016 907/023 010/031 013/026 010/028 017/032 020/031
38/j 21/b 11/b 12/j 11/b 22/j 11/b
4bq 011/020 903/022 011/034 017/031 012/032 020/033 020/032
37/j 21/b 00/b 01/b 11/b 22/j 01/b
bhk 009/013 910/017 009/029 012/022 010/027 015/030 019/029
46/j 11/b 01/b 11/b 11/east 12/j 11/b
shr 008/024 901/027 014/036 016/034 014/033 019/035 020/033
25/j 51/b 01/b 12/j 11/b 11/b 21/b
Montana...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 am MST Tuesday for