Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Billings Montana
911 am MDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014
light shower activity continues over our south this morning...
with some snow over the beartooth absarokas and big horns. Web
cam in the Big Horn Mountains shows some light accumulation...and Montana
dot has temporarily closed Beartooth Pass due to snow and ice. Not
much going on elsewhere but we should see isolated showers develop
this afternoon with upper trough overhead and 500mb cold pool of
about -22c. Tfx 12z radiosonde observation shows a convective temperature in the low 50s...
and model soundings in our area suggest a convective temperature in the
upper 50s...and these temperatures should be achieved today. Inherited
forecast had all of this covered well so only minor tweaks to
winds...sky and probability of precipitation. High temperatures today should range from the middle
50s to around 60 degrees...along with a 15-25 miles per hour northwest wind. Jkl
Short term...valid for today and Thursday...
The upper low and associated surface low that have been
influencing our weather for the past several days have finally
shifted northeast into southern Canada. Although we are still
feeling the effects as pressure gradients remain tight across the
eastern half of our forecast area resulting in gusty northwest
winds along with a few isolated showers.
An unsettled northwest flow aloft will be over the forecast area
today. In addition...a 700mb cold pool aloft will be situated over
the area keeping the atmosphere unstable. As a result...once
daytime heating commences expect isolated to scattered showers
throughout the day and into the early evening hours. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts
will be light so not expecting anything heavy. Afternoon
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today with readings in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Skies are expected to clear after sunset with the showers
diminishing as well. The next upper level disturbance to affect
the forecast area will quickly move southeast out of British
Columbia late tonight into Thursday morning. A cold front will
also move across the area Thursday morning ushering in gusty
northwest winds for the day. Have increased shower chances into
the high chance category but again...amounts should be light.
Temperatures will be even cooler Thursday with readings only in
the 50s and it will feel even cooler given the gusty northwest
Long term...valid for Friday...Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...
Models all remain in good agreement through the extended forecast
in keeping a weak ridge of high pressure across the forecast area.
This will result in dry weather and near to slightly above normal
temperatures for this time of the year. Did lower highs on Friday
as 850 mb temperatures will be starting out cold with a 0c to -2c
over the area. Warm advection is not prognosticated until late afternoon.
Upper ridge begins to break down next Tuesday which will put US in
a zonal flow aloft. Weak energy will be moving through this flow
and will bring a chance for light precipitation over our mountains.
Have gone with isolated probability of precipitation for this. Richmond
Isolated showers are possible across the area today which will
bring MVFR to IFR conditions. Mountain obscurations can also be
anticipated in any shower activity. Winds will be gusty today with
north to northwest winds of 15 to 30 miles per hour through late afternoon.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail. Richmond &&
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Today Thursday Friday Sat sun Monday Tuesday
bil 060 043/054 031/062 047/073 047/069 048/071 049/070
2/west 13/west 00/u 00/u 11/u 10/u 11/b
lvm 056 035/054 028/063 041/070 040/067 042/070 043/070
2/west 12/west 00/b 00/u 11/u 11/u 11/u
hdn 061 039/057 030/062 043/074 045/069 046/071 047/071
2/west 13/west 10/u 00/u 11/u 11/u 11/b
mls 060 040/053 027/061 042/071 045/067 046/068 045/067
2/west 13/west 10/u 00/u 11/u 11/b 11/b
4bq 060 039/056 030/060 041/071 046/066 045/068 045/067
2/west 13/west 20/u 00/u 11/u 11/u 11/b
bhk 059 038/052 028/052 037/066 042/062 043/063 041/062
2/west 13/west 10/u 00/b 11/north 11/b 11/b
shr 057 036/055 028/060 040/071 043/067 042/070 043/069
2/west 12/west 20/u 00/u 11/u 10/u 11/u