Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Billings Montana
824 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015
No changes for the update this evening. Skies should clear our
bringing colder temperatures to the region. Lows will dip down into the
upper 30s and lower 40s and make for a chilly morning commute.
Short term...valid for Wednesday and Thursday...
Models continue in good agreement through the short term
period...favoring dry conditions and cooler temperatures through the
period. Made several minor changes to the short term forecast
period this afternoon...centered around cooling inherited
temperatures...both highs and lows.
Timing appears to have sped up for backdoor cold front sagging
into the region Wednesday. It now appears that cooler air will
seep at least through Miles City if not near Billings through
Wednesday evening. Cooled areas east Billings by several degrees
to account for new timing. Also cooled temperatures overnight. Intrusion
of cool air will keep highs in the 60s Thursday...and bring some
of the coolest temperatures of the season for Thursday night...will lows
in the upper 20s east...and temperatures around freezing in most other
location. Although a reasonably strong front ... does not
appear to produce any precipitation potential do to limited moisture
Fire danger remains slightly elevated today/tonight...with areas
of gusty winds...and dry conditions...however cooler temperatures and
lighter winds are expected over the next couple of days.
Unfortunately dry conditions do appear to persist at least though
the weekend. Aag
Long term...valid for Friday...Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...
The inherited extended forecast appears to be on track...so
little in the way for changes for the period this afternoon.
Generally dry conditions persist through the
weekend...accompanied by a warming trend. Rising heights should
help get temperatures back to slightly above normal on Friday...but not
much more as mixing is limited. More significant is expected
Saturday and Sunday...as upper level ridging cross the region. Did
raise temperatures slightly for Saturday...but kept inherited Sunday
temperatures as ridge appears to be flattening out.
Sunday night begins our next chance for precipitation across the
region...as a split flow pattern crosses the region. Models still
diverge on how to handle the combination of northern shortwave
energy and southwest monsoonal looking wave moving across the
region. That said they do support unsettled period...good
moisture availability...and a relatively warm system. The finer
details such as timing...and location continue to be uncertain.
Have continued with inherited isolated to scattered probability of precipitation...as
precipitable waters still appear to approach 1 inch. Aag
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Mrowell
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Wednesday Thursday Friday Sat sun Monday Tuesday
bil 045/070 042/060 035/065 039/071 046/073 048/064 044/060
00/b 00/b 00/u 00/u 01/b 32/west 22/west
lvm 043/074 035/061 033/068 038/076 045/068 043/061 039/059
00/north 00/u 00/u 00/u 13/west 32/west 32/west
hdn 042/071 040/061 035/065 039/073 043/075 045/066 042/061
00/b 01/b 00/u 00/u 01/b 32/west 22/west
mls 043/068 036/058 030/061 038/069 043/071 045/065 044/060
00/b 00/u 00/b 00/u 00/b 22/west 22/west
4bq 042/070 039/058 032/064 038/071 045/073 046/064 043/058
00/b 00/b 00/b 00/u 00/b 22/west 22/west
bhk 039/066 034/055 028/059 036/064 041/071 044/063 042/058
00/b 00/u 00/b 00/u 00/b 12/west 22/west
shr 041/072 038/059 033/067 038/074 042/073 042/061 040/057
00/u 01/b 00/u 00/u 01/b 22/west 23/west