Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Billings Montana
1008 am MST Tuesday Dec 10 2013
Short term...valid for today and Wednesday...
Refreshed several of the going highlights with the morning package
Most notably...due to conditions in and around Livingston and
Nye...decided to extend the going Blizzard Warning until 600 PM
local time this evening. Initial thought was that winds would
diminish by the late morning hours...however...winds at the lvm
ASOS have continued to impress...with gusts still nearing 60 miles per hour.
This has continued to keep Interstate 90 closed from Livingston to
Springdale due to blowing and drifting snow. Reports have also come
in with significant drifting near Livingston...causing travel to
be non existent in some places.
Meanwhile in the central and eastern zones...several bands of
snowfall have developed a little earlier than expected over
portions of Treasure...Big Horn...northern
Yellowstone...Musselshell...and Rosebud counties. Reports near
Hysham of a quick 1 to 2 inches earlier this morning and the rapid
intensification of these bands have precipitated the addition of
several counties to the going Winter Weather Advisory.
This New Addition does include the city of Billings. With travel
conditions still somewhat Dicey in and around town...the addition
of 1 to 2 inches of snow will keep the travel difficult into the
evening hours. Singer
Long term...valid for Thursday...Fri...Sat...sun...Mon...
Thursday should be the warmest day of the week as a downslope wind
pattern combines with a westerly flow aloft to bring good mixing
and a few temperatures could climb above freezing. It will
certainly be windy for the western zones and have raised winds in
The Gap flow areas and suspect there may be another high wind
event which could blow snow around...but the temperatures are
expected to be warmer.
Cold front backs into the central and eastern areas on Friday for
a cool down especially for southeast Montana and a return of snow
to the forecast. A little bit of moderation Friday night as a
disturbance brings a round of pressure falls and then a stronger
cold shot comes on Saturday. This system will have a stronger
clipper effect across southeast Montana and will have to watch for
a round of northwest winds bringing a better chance for
accumulating and blowing snow.
Flow switches from northwesterly Friday and Saturday to a bit more
westerly on Sunday and Monday favoring moderating temperatures and
shifting best chances for precipitation away from the region as
downslope becomes a stronger factor. Flow looks to turn
northwesterly on Tuesday for a return of the clipper express.
Winter weather will continue to impact the region. Blizzard
conditions will impact klvm with vlifr...dropping below Airport
minimums for the next several hours. Conditions will begin to
improve there later this afternoon...but more snow will bring
lower ceilings and keep visibility no better than MVFR. Snow and
increasing winds across the east will combine to produce IFR/LIFR
conditions through the day...with Airport minimums being reached
at times at kmls. Light snow or snow showers will also generate
occasional MVFR today at both kbil and kshr...with some periods
of IFR possible. Expect some mountain obscuration. Stc
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Today Wednesday Thursday Friday Sat sun Monday
bil 024 005/029 022/035 018/034 015/032 021/035 022/033
6/S 61/north 11/north 12/j 21/b 11/b 11/b
lvm 019 007/026 022/034 021/034 019/034 021/032 021/028
4/S 41/q 11/north 22/j 11/north 11/north 21/north
hdn 024 901/027 016/037 015/032 012/030 018/034 020/033
8/S 61/b 11/b 12/j 21/b 12/j 11/b
mls 019 907/023 012/032 013/026 010/022 015/030 020/031
9/S 20/b 01/b 12/j 21/b 22/j 11/b
4bq 022 903/022 013/036 017/031 012/027 018/031 020/032
9/S 31/b 00/b 02/j 21/b 22/j 01/b
bhk 016 911/017 011/029 012/022 010/018 013/028 019/029
9/S 20/b 01/b 12/j 21/east 12/j 11/b
shr 024 901/027 016/038 016/034 014/033 018/036 020/033
5/S 51/b 00/b 12/j 21/b 11/b 21/b
Montana...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM MST this evening
for zones 28-34-41-42-63.
Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 9 PM MST this evening
for zones 29>33-35>38-57-58-64.
Blizzard Warning in effect until 6 PM MST this evening for