Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Billings Montana
303 am MDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Short term...valid for today and Tuesday...

There is not much new to say concerning the current weather
pattern. Seasonal temperatures and mainly dry conditions will
continue as a ridge of high pressure aloft over The Rockies
prevails. However...that ridge axis will shift ever so slightly
east in the short term...allowing some weak return of monsoonal
moisture to our southern zones. Cross sections indicate the
moisture is relatively high...but may produce some wetting rain
over the high country from the absarokas/beartooths to the big
horns. This is already covered in the forecast so little if any
changes have been made to this package. Look for increasing cloud
cover today as some of that high level moisture moves in....mainly
in the western and southern zones. Bt

Long term...valid for Wednesday...Thu...Fri...Sat...sun...

Models continue to indicate persistent and slightly stronger
upper level ridge dominating the region through the extended
period. This should result in slight warmer temperatures across the
region...mainly low 90s. Additionally...monsoonal moisture should
be held off to the west...resulting in reduced chances of showers
and thunderstorms across the plains.

Convection will be tied tightly to the high terrain through
Thursday night...with first potential for spreading into the
plains on best. This potential will remain slight for
the plains through the end of the extended as strong ridge remains
in place. Did pare back the extent of slight probability of precipitation for now appears will be lesser potential to spread to
the east. Eastern zones appear to stay dry throughout the
extended period. Aag



VFR conditions will prevail once again today...but will some
cloudiness developing. An isolated thunderstorm is possible are
high terrain this afternoon...including the
beartooth...absaroka...and Big Horn Mountains...and near taf sites
of klvm and kshr. Expected localized obscurations in area
mountains this afternoon and evening with any storms that do
develop. Aag


Preliminary point temp/pops...

Today Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Sat sun
bil 090 061/089 060/089 060/089 062/091 064/091 062/092
0/b 00/b 01/b 11/b 12/T 22/T 22/T
lvm 089 054/089 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/089 055/088
1/b 12/T 01/b 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
hdn 091 058/091 057/090 059/091 061/093 061/092 061/093
0/u 00/b 01/b 11/u 12/T 22/T 22/T
mls 088 060/089 060/089 061/089 064/093 064/093 064/092
0/u 00/b 00/u 11/u 11/u 11/u 22/T
4bq 088 058/088 058/088 059/088 060/092 062/091 062/091
0/u 00/b 01/u 11/u 11/u 11/u 22/T
bhk 083 054/085 054/085 056/085 059/089 059/088 059/088
0/u 00/u 00/u 11/u 11/u 11/u 11/u
shr 089 056/086 053/086 055/086 057/089 057/087 057/088
0/b 12/T 21/b 11/b 12/T 22/T 22/T


Byz watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations