Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Billings Montana
1017 am MDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015
Updated forecast to drop fog mention for the rest of the day. Also
increased precipitation chances from late tonight through Thursday
morning. Latest model runs put a good area of qg forcing and
coincident frontogenesis/pvu over the area as Pacific trough drops
through the region. Relative humidity values remain elevated from last weekends
precipitation and additional strong moisture advection off the
Pacific should be enough for scattered to numerous shower
activity...especially tonight as stronger mix winds decouple. Axis
of best precipitation potential looks to be Harlowton to Billings
to Broadus...as well as foothills and mountain locations. This
won't be a heavy precipitation event but 0.05 to 0.20 inches of
precipitation is possible. Rest of forecast on track. Chambers
Short term...valid for today and Thursday...
A Pacific trough has started to work its way through Montana. As
it does...cloud cover and rain chances will increase. The best
chances will be over the mountains...but probability of precipitation will spread into
southern Montana this evening as a weak cold front pushes through.
The frontogenesis is relative weak so it does not looks like there
will be much precipitation from this. As the front is moving through
winds make become a bit breezy this afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow behind the front...only in
the upper 60s. The ridge will begin reassert itself...but there
will be enough leftover energy and moisture that the mountains
will see a very slight chance of rain during the day tomorrow.
Long term...valid for Friday...Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...
Breezy and warm Friday and Saturday as a flattening ridge axis
moves across the area with Saturday looking to see 80 degree
readings. By Sunday a front will cross the region bringing a
even windier but cooler day with increased middle level moisture but
this will mainly bring clouds and a few mountain showers.
Flow pattern for next week stays pretty steady with flow west
northwesterly and weakly anticyclonic for above normal
temperatures and breezy especially due to afternoon mixing.
Should be dry through the period. Borsum
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. A cold front
will move through the area today with middle and high level moisture
and increasing northwest winds. Only mountain top obscurations are
expected with isolated showers. Showers will spread into the
adjacent foothills in the early evening and begin to impact
klvm...kshr...and kbil overnight with occassional MVFR visible
possible in any showers. Aside from this VFR conditions expected.
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Today Thursday Friday Sat sun Monday Tuesday
bil 073 050/068 051/079 053/083 055/074 045/075 049/071
2/west 43/west 11/b 00/u 01/north 10/north 11/b
lvm 070 046/068 047/079 048/081 050/069 043/073 044/070
3/west 52/west 10/north 00/north 02/west 11/north 11/north
hdn 075 048/069 047/081 049/084 051/076 044/076 046/073
1/b 43/west 10/b 00/u 01/north 00/b 11/b
mls 075 049/068 048/079 052/084 053/076 045/074 047/071
0/b 21/b 00/b 00/u 01/north 10/b 10/u
4bq 075 050/067 047/078 050/085 051/078 044/075 046/071
0/b 44/west 00/b 00/u 01/north 10/u 00/u
bhk 073 046/065 044/076 050/083 050/075 044/072 045/068
0/b 21/b 00/b 00/u 01/north 10/north 10/north
shr 074 046/066 044/079 046/085 047/078 042/076 043/072
1/b 44/west 10/b 00/u 01/north 10/u 10/u