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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Billings Montana
958 PM MDT Friday Oct 9 2015

only update this evening was to increase sky cover. Satellite
shows very dirty ridge building over and models not doing real
well with picking up that high level moisture. Rest of forecast in
good shape. Bt


Short term...valid for Sat and sun...

Very minor changes to the going forecast. Ridge of high pressure
aloft will bring dry and mostly clear skies overnight. Lee side
troffing will keep winds agitated tonight so will see warm
overnight temperatures compared to what normal lows this time of
year would be. With the warm start to the day should have no
trouble getting temperatures well into the 80s as winds turn more
westerly aloft enhancing downslope warming. In fact could see a
few 90 degree readings as record high temperatures are expected
Saturday afternoon. Currently looks like cloud cover will not be a
big factor for temperatures Saturday afternoon but even a little
cirrus can have an impact so will keep an eye on that.

Winds will increase over western zones and area hilltops Saturday
night as jet stream builds in and cold front approaches from the
west. Moderate mountain wave activity looks probable along east
and north facing foothill locations. Could see wind gusts 40 to 50
miles per hour in these areas overnight including Livingston and Nye...and
possibly Sheridan though right now wind speeds look just a bit
lower there. This enhanced downslope will keep low temperatures
very warm...above seasonal high temperatures in many areas. Lows
in th 55 to 65 degree range look reasonable with a few higher
readings in more wind prone locations.

Cold front will move into northwest zones around sunrise Sunday
morning...spreading into the Billings area around 9 am and into
southeast Montana by noon. This is a quick moving system with a
sharp subsidence gradient just behind the wave. So any
precipitation will be right along the boundary in a squall line.
Latest models have really backed off on precipitation potential
with this system as it gets into the plains so kept slight chance
forecast with this package. Subsidence behind the wave will clear
cloud cover out quickly and will push strong winds aloft down to
the surface...resulting in wind gusts in the 40 to 50 miles per hour range
with a few stronger gusts possible Sunday afternoon into the early
evening. High temperatures will be in the 60s and lower 70s
Sunday...with some areas seeing high temperatures reached middle
morning. Winds will subside significantly Sunday night allowing
temperatures to cool to more seasonal levels.

Fire dangers across the area are currently listed
as low to moderate. dry and windy conditions on
Saturday will likely dry out grassy fuels and the strong winds on
Sunday will be a problem should any fires get started. Those
planning burning this weekend should strongly consider delaying
those Burns until next week when cooler conditions and lighter
winds are forecast. Chambers

Long term...valid for Monday...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

No changes to the extended forecast this afternoon. Post frontal
ridging builds in Monday...with strong zonal flow regime
developing for Tuesday. This will keep conditions dry and
temperatures well above normal especially Tuesday. Amplified West
Coast ridge builds Wednesday through Friday turning flow over
Montana and northern Wyoming more northerly. This will bring a
cooling trend toward more seasonal temperatures...but few chances
for precipitation. Ridge axis crosses the area next weekend for
more above normal temperatures. Chambers



Gusty west to SW winds will affect areas from kbil west...tonight
through Sat. Wind gusts to 30 knots are possible...with higher gusts
over klvm and the foothills. Low level wind shear is expected over kmls tonight.
VFR will prevail through Sat across the area. Arthur

Preliminary point temp/pops...

Sat sun Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
bil 060/087 064/070 042/070 049/076 046/069 041/063 041/064
00/u 02/west 00/b 10/north 10/u 01/b 11/b
lvm 057/086 061/066 039/070 045/075 042/071 038/065 038/066
00/north 22/west 00/north 00/north 10/u 01/b 11/b
hdn 054/089 057/071 041/070 046/078 044/069 041/065 041/066
00/u 02/west 00/u 10/north 10/u 01/b 11/b
mls 052/088 054/070 041/068 048/075 045/068 041/062 040/063
00/u 02/west 10/u 10/north 01/u 01/b 11/b
4bq 050/088 053/072 040/066 046/076 044/068 041/064 040/064
00/u 02/west 10/u 10/north 00/u 01/b 11/b
bhk 050/085 051/072 041/065 045/072 043/065 040/061 039/060
00/u 02/west 10/u 00/north 01/u 01/u 01/b
shr 046/089 058/074 039/069 042/078 042/070 039/065 039/065
00/u 02/west 10/u 00/u 00/u 01/b 11/b


Byz watches/warnings/advisories...



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