Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Billings Montana
248 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014
Short term...valid for Thursday and Friday...
Ridge of high pressure will remain in control of our region
through the short term period. Convective chances will be mostly
driven by monsoon moisture...which should gradually increase over
the next two days so expect activity to increase a bit tomorrow
and again Friday. Not much going on today though as we did
experience a push of drier air from the northwest behind yesterdays
energy. Dewpoints have fallen to the 30s and low 40s most locations.
Only isolated activity expected from now through sunset over our western
Couple items to point out. First...weak shortwave in northwest flow
aloft will drop from Canada into the northern plains tonight into
Thursday morning. Forcing associated with this feature will
largely miss US...but we may see enough middle level cooling as it
passes to realize some very modest cape along the Dakotas border.
Have added an isolated pop from Baker to Ekalaka Thursday afternoon.
Next...keep an eye on moisture from former Tropical Storm Hernan
which is streaming through California to the sierras today. Moisture and weak
energy will lift through the Great Basin and may affect thunderstorm
potential over our west by Friday. With this in mind felt some
higher scattered probability of precipitation were in order for our western mountains on
Friday. Have also expanded slight probability of precipitation across our north as the
NAM/European model (ecmwf) indicate some quantitative precipitation forecast with a weak shortwave rounding the
ridge on Friday. Given a gradual overall increase in precipitable waters
expected the next two days this seemed reasonable.
Otherwise temperatures will turn a bit warmer and should be a little
above normal Thursday and Friday...with highs in the upper 80s to
middle 90s most places.
Long term...valid for Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...
There looks to be a slight change in the weather pattern for the
upcoming weekend...but overall...high pressure ridging will still
be over the northern rockies throughout most of the extended. The
slight changes come about as the high pressure ridge axis gets
shifted east into the Dakotas. This will allow the monsoonal flow
that has been occurring from California to western Montana to
shift east as well bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms across our forecast area Saturday into early next
week. Models bring a stronger disturbance over the forecast area
early next week so will go with higher probability of precipitation for this time period.
Afternoon highs will be normal for this time of year with readings
mainly in the upper 80s. Hooley
Mostly clear skies with VFR conditions will prevail for the
remainder of today and throughout the overnight hours. However..
there will be a very slight chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the beartooth/Absaroka Mountains through
about 04z which may lead to some mountain obscurations at times.
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Thursday Friday Sat sun Monday Tuesday Wednesday
bil 063/092 063/092 064/090 062/088 061/088 063/085 061/087
00/u 02/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T 22/T
lvm 053/091 055/091 055/088 054/086 055/084 056/084 054/087
12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 33/T 33/T
hdn 057/093 058/093 060/092 060/090 059/090 063/086 058/088
00/u 01/u 12/T 22/T 23/T 33/T 22/T
mls 061/094 063/094 063/094 063/090 062/089 063/085 062/088
01/u 11/u 12/T 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
4bq 058/092 059/092 060/093 061/090 061/089 063/085 060/085
00/u 01/u 12/T 12/T 22/T 33/T 33/T
bhk 055/091 057/090 057/091 060/088 060/086 061/083 058/084
02/T 21/u 11/u 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
shr 053/090 055/091 056/088 055/087 056/086 059/083 054/083
00/u 01/u 22/T 22/T 23/T 33/T 33/T