Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
359 PM EDT Thursday may 28 2015
high pressure will settle across the region tonight. The high
will move east on Friday allowing for a surge of very warm air
Friday and Saturday ahead of a sharp cold front that is expected
to push through the region over the weekend with additional
showers and thunderstorms.
Near term /through Friday/...
regional radars showing just a few lingering light showers
across the north country. This activity will end by late
afternoon as drier air advects into the region. High pressure
that is over southern Ontario will pass across our region tonight
with clear skies...light winds and air temperatures falling back
into the low to middle 50s...perhaps a cooler across the southern
tier and east of Lake Ontario.
High pressure will slide to the east Friday allowing a surge of
warmer air to move northward into the region. Both the NAM/GFS
suggesting the bulk of the return moisture will work into the
western southern tier during the afternoon hours. This moisture
advection combined with increasing instability and possible lake
breeze interaction may be enough to generate some convection
across the southern tier late in the day. With the generally Low
Cape and borderline 0-6 km bulk shear around 25 knots...will
probably be hard pressed to see any severe storms.
Friday looks to be a very warm day with most highs in the lower
to middle 80s based on 850 mb temperatures warming to around 15c.
Short term /Friday night through Monday/...
our region will remain between the departing surface high and an
approaching cold front on Friday night. A shower or thunderstorm
cannot completely be ruled out...especially toward daybreak west
of the Genesee Valley...but consensus quantitative precipitation forecast is probably a bit
overdone given the lack of any significant wave or trigger for
nighttime convection. Temperatures will remain on the warm side
with clouds and a continued southerly flow keeping temperatures
from falling below the middle to upper 60s.
Low pressure forecast to track across northern Quebec will drop a
strong cold front across our region late Saturday. Precipitable water/S around 1.5
ahead of the front will bring a soaking rainfall to most
locations...but quantitative precipitation forecast should vary by location due to the convective
nature of the precipitation.
Widely scattered convection will start the day Saturday...with
additional heating and destabilization late morning and early
afternoon contributing to greater areal coverage and intensity. A
brisk southwesterly flow should mix the boundary layer and will
probably diminish precipitation for a time across the Niagara
Frontier. Any shadowing will break down late Saturday afternoon and
evening with the passage of the cold front.
The greatest potential for heavy rain is Saturday afternoon across
interior sections. There also may be a few strong to severe
thunderstorms with a modestly strong 850mb flow forecast ahead of
the front. Otherwise...Saturday should be another warm and fairly
muggy day with highs in the 80s.
The cold front will slowly push south late Saturday night bringing
an abrupt change to temperatures with highs in the lower 60s on
Sunday. Below average temperatures will continue into Monday with readings
peaking 65f to 70f on Monday. Strong high pressure /1030mb/ will
build into the northeast Monday with fair weather.
Long term /Monday night through Thursday/...
strong surface high pressure and ridging aloft over eastern
Canada and the northeast states through the entire period will
keep the area rain free. 850 mb temperatures at +6c to +8c Monday night will
rise to +13 to +15c by Thursday...supporting maximum surface temperatures in
the 70s Tuesday...middle 70s to lower 80s Wednesday...and in the 80s
Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/...
any linger lower cloud cover across the north country will
continue to erode as drier air advects into the region. Any
linger MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR by 20z. Local lake breeze
circulations will impact the taf sites this afternoon but under 15
An area of high pressure will pass across the region tonight and
Friday with VFR flight conditions expected to prevail through the
remainder of the taf forecast.
Friday night and Saturday...mainly VFR though showers and
thunderstorms may bring brief flight restrictions.
Sunday through Tuesday...mainly VFR.
a period of non Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on the eastern Great
Lakes tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds over the region.
Later Saturday southwest winds will increase ahead of a stronger
cold front...possibly necessitating the hoisting of additional
small craft flags.