Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
218 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015
high pressure will remain overhead today providing our region with
fair and dry weather with plenty of sunshine. Fair weather will
continue Saturday with temperatures returning back to seasonal
normals. A disturbance will then pass across the region Saturday
night and Sunday bringing the chance for a few showers before middle
Summer-like warmth returns for next week.
Near term /through today/...
the large-scale pattern across our region today into the weekend
will feature fair weather. Lingering broad/weak upper level
troughing early this morning will give way to a zonal flow later
today...while surface high pressure remains centered overhead.
Infrared satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies this morning with some
lingering stratus east of Lake Ontario and at the east end of Lake
Erie. Mainly clear skies and light winds has led to the development
of southern tier River Valley fog which will linger to sunrise.
Expect lows this morning to range from the upper 40s across the
coolest interior portions of the southern tier/north country to the
lower and middle 50s elsewhere.
After daybreak...some modest warming of our airmass should allow
high temperatures to recover back into the lower to middle 70s across
the vast majority of the area... though local lake breezes will
likely keep temperatures along the Lake Ontario shoreline confined to
around the 70 degree mark...and the highest terrain east of Lake
Ontario may still struggle to break out of the 60s.
Short term /tonight through Sunday night/...
high pressure moves off the Atlantic coast while a weak low over
the upper Great Lakes approaches from the west. The system lifts a
warm front across the region so expect an increase in cloudiness
overnight Friday night and Saturday.
While the warm front will produce fairly widespread cloud cover
the chance for any precipitation will mainly be limited to the
western sections late in the day Saturday and Saturday night.
The low is forecast to weaken quite a bit as it moves across the
lower Great Lakes Sunday/Sunday night thus will confine chance
probabilities to the Niagara Frontier and western southern tier.
The strengthening southerly flow will allow for more seasonable
temperatures. Temperatures Friday night will be in the 50 and upper 50s
to low 60s Saturday night. Highs will climb back to around 80 on
Saturday and in the low 80s on Sunday.
All that being said...the spread of model solutions/strength of
this Great Lakes system really lowers the confidence factor in
this weekends forecast.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
broad upper level ridging will shift to the eastern U.S. As we move
into next week as troughing develops across the Pacific northwest.
While this should result in warm temperatures and generally dry
conditions across the Great Lakes next week several weak middle level
impulses will pass through the region. Thus have kept kept a slight
chance of showers/thunderstorms across inland western New York during the
afternoons Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise expect mostly dry and
increasingly warm conditions next week with highs climbing into the
middle 80s and lows ranging from the upper 50s across higher elevations
to the middle 60s near the lakes.
Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will prevail at all sites today and tonight except
across the southern tier where River Valley fog has developed. This
includes kjhw where LIFR visible/ceilings will continue until about 12z.
After daybreak any leftover VFR stratus should finally mix out with
high pressure overhead. Tonight...some high cirrus will begin
overspreading the forecast area.
Saturday night and Sunday...mainly VFR with a chance of showers/
associated brief MVFR.
Monday and Tuesday...mainly VFR.
light winds and minimal waves are expected to be the rule from today
through the weekend.