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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1134 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST DRIFTS
OUT TO SEA. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS STARTING
TO CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE 
THIS EVENING. LINGERING UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHINESS WITHIN 
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST 
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT 
MAX WHICH BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING 
IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS NEW 
YORK. THE RISING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPING CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BRING 
SUBSIDENT FLOW BRINGING SHOWERS TO AN END BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. 
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON TUESDAY WITH STEEP LOW 
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL 
START TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND 
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL 
HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO 
MODERATE AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. 

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO 
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH 
WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN 
TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE 
INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. 
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THESE TWO 
FEATURES MERGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY 
FARTHER WEST WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LAST 
SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LEAN 
FOR SHOWERS TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARMER WEATHER IS FOR SURE AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY. THE POPS 
ARE TOUGHER. 

THE GFS HAS SOME QPF ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY 
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND LOWERED THEM 
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE 
FRONT SEEMS WEAKER ON THE ECMWF SO FOR THE TIME BEING JUST WENT 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. 

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS EAST AND RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CIGS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY VFR EXCEPT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING KJHW WHERE CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY AS RIDGING INCREASES. OVC CIGS MUCH 
OF THE DAY...BEGINNING TO CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK... 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT 
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WIND WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH 
TO NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY 
MIDWEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL WILL TRACK UP THE ATLANTIC COAST OUT OF 
THE GULF AND PULL THE WIND FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKES. IN 
GENERAL...THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH 
WAVES GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE LAKES AND A FOOT OR LESS IN 
THE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC/SMITH
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA/SMITH
MARINE...JAM/SMITH

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