Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
428 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015
high pressure will remain overhead today providing our region with
fair and dry weather with plenty of sunshine. Fair weather will
continue Saturday with temperatures returning back to seasonal
normals. A disturbance will then pass across the region Saturday
night and Sunday bringing the chance for a few showers before middle
Summer-like warmth returns for next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
surface high pressure remains centered over western New York early
this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies with
some lingering stratus over southeastern Lake Ontario and at the east
end of Lake Erie. Across the southern tier...mainly clear skies and
light winds has led to the development of patchy dense southern tier
River Valley fog which will linger to sunrise. Expect lows this
morning to range from the middle 40s across the coolest interior
portions of the southern tier/north country to the lower and middle 50s
After daybreak...warm advection under light southwest flow aloft
will boost 850mb temperatures back above 10c today. This will
support high temperatures reaching into the middle 70s across the
majority of the area... though local lake breezes will likely keep
temperatures along the Lake Ontario shoreline confined to around 70. The
coolest spot looks to be the highest terrain east of Lake Ontario
which may struggle to break out of the upper 60s.
Tonight the center of the surface high shifts to the southern New
England coast. A zonal flow aloft will begin to advect some high
cirrus clouds overhead from a disturbance crossing the central Great
Lakes. Dry weather will continue with light winds and the limited
cirrus still supporting another round of southern tier River Valley
fog. Overnight lows will be a bit milder with the warming airmass...
ranging through the 50s.
Short term /Saturday through Monday night/...
the weather for this weekend and into the early part of next week
will be dominated by two features...the sub-tropical high that will
be anchored over the western Atlantic with its western periphery
encompassing much of the eastern u... a weakening shortwave
that will be drifting across the Great Lakes through the period.
Broad isentropic uplift across the lower Great Lakes between the
high and the approaching shortwave will generate widespread
middle/upper level cloud cover Saturday into at least the first part of
Sunday and may support a few showers across far western New York
late Saturday night into Sunday as the shortwave edges closer to the
area...though weak forcing and a lack of deep moisture should limit
coverage. It is also Worth noting that even this limited activity
may hold off through the end of the weekend should the shortwave
hold off longer than currently depicted in the blend between the
European model (ecmwf) and GFS output and have continued to trend towards the slower
European model (ecmwf) solution which seems more reasonable given the fact that the
shortwave will be encountering aforementioned ridging affecting the
Given above discussion...have left in low chance probability of precipitation across western
New York for Monday...allowing for the potential for isolated
diurnally driven convection should the slower European model (ecmwf) solution verify.
Temperatures during the period will reflect the broad anticyclonic
flow across the eastern U.S. With warmer advecting into the lower
Great Lakes from the southwest. This will be tempered somewhat by
the presence of the decaying upper level trough and should keep
highs in the lower 80s through the period. Increasing moisture
return across the region will push dewpoints back into the 60s and
yield warmer and muggier nights than we have experienced of late
with lows in the low to middle 60s...warmest near the lakes.
Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
upper level ridging will maintain its hold east of the Mississippi
through the coming week promoting a largely dry and increasingly
warm period for western and north-central New York with highs
climbing back into the middle-80s and lows in the 60s.
Aviation /09z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will prevail at all sites today and tonight except
across the southern tier where dense River Valley fog has developed.
This includes kjhw where vlifr visible/ceilings will continue until about
After daybreak any leftover VFR stratus should finally mix out with
high pressure overhead. Tonight...some high cirrus will begin
overspreading the forecast area.
Saturday night and Sunday...mainly VFR
with a chance of showers/ associated brief MVFR. Monday and
light winds and minimal waves are expected to be the rule from today
through the weekend.