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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
204 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

low pressure near the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia peninsula will slowly lift
northeastward to the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the week.
With our region remaining under the influence of this
and cloudy conditions will linger through Friday...along with some
showers from time to time. Sunshine and increasing warmth will then
return to the region starting next week.


Near term /through today/...
low pressure offshore of the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia peninsula will maintain a
moist upslope northeasterly to northerly flow across our region
overnight...which will keep plentiful low clouds in place
areawide...along with areas of drizzle and light rain south of
Lake Ontario.

Tomorrow a digging shortwave will form a cutoff low near Virginia
with a surface low in close proximity. Cool northerly winds will
prevail through the day tomorrow with clouds remaining thick. The
greatest chance for showers will be across the interior southern
tier and southern Genesee Valley which will lie closest to the
surface low...and spokes of energy rotating around the upper level
close low.

With thick cloud cover temperatures will not have a great range.
Afternoon highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s will lower to the low
to middle 40s tonight. Tomorrow with cooling aloft...our temperatures
will struggle to top the 50 degree mark.


Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
model and ensemble guidance showing nearly stacked deep closed low
pressure off the New Jersey coast Wednesday night...moving very
slowly off the southern coast of Maine by Friday night. The
associated deep moist cyclonic flow will maintain a broad area of
shower activity across the eastern half of the area through the
period...with likely a sharp cutoff to the precipitation field
somewhere across western New York...though chances for precipitation
may be just as prevalent across the favored northerly flow upslope
areas of western New York. With all the clouds and precipitation...
little diurnal change in temperatures is expected with lows in the
upper 30s and 40s each day and highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s
each day.


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
renewed middle/upper level height rises work into western New York at
the start of the period in between the departing middle/upper level
circulation pushing through the Canadian Maritimes and approaching
upper level trough from Ontario. This will allow for some gradual
improvement Saturday...although there will be some moisture
lingering on the backside of the system pulling away...keeping a
low risk for showers early in the day across eastern portions.

Latest medium range guidance appears to be more in agreement
bringing the potent shortwave dropping through the Ontario upper
trough and associated showers across the region late Saturday
through early Sunday. After this...models similar in bring a broad
upper level ridge toward the eastern Great Lakes by the end of the
weekend into early next week. This should result in much more
improved conditions with sunshine and a significant warming trend.
Temperatures probably no getting out of the 50s for the weekend .But
into the 60s...possibly some lower 70s for both Monday and Tuesday.


Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 06z...all of western and north central New York remains socked
in under IFR to lower-end MVFR cloud cover...with areas of drizzle
and light rain also continuing south of Lake Ontario. All of this
is thanks to low pressure offshore of the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia peninsula...
which continues to feed a moist northerly/northeasterly upslope
flow across our region.

Through the course of the taf period...the aforementioned low will
ever so slowly lift northeastward...reaching a position just
southeast of Long Island by Thursday morning. Somewhat drier air
wrapping southwestward around the low should help to bring a gradual
improving trend through the late overnight hours and the course of
Wednesday...with the light rain/drizzle tending to diminish and our
current IFR/low MVFR ceilings slowly lifting back to MVFR/low VFR.
General MVFR to low VFR conditions are then expected to continue
Wednesday night...though there will probably also be an uptick in
precipitation chances across The Finger lakes and north country as
another surge of moisture pivots westward around the coastal low.

Thursday through Saturday...areas of MVFR with a chance of
rain...with rain likely across central and northern New York.
Sunday...mainly VFR.


a cool northerly flow will rule through the week and this will
maintain choppy lake waters and at times gusty winds on the
rivers. For tonight small craft conditions will continue across
Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. The northerly wind...strengthening
some overnight with the onset of cooler air will also bring small
craft conditions to the lower Niagara River as winds funnel up The

These winds will weaken some tomorrow...though winds and waves will
remain at small craft criteria on the lakes through the daytime.

A slow moving storm system sliding up the northeast coastline will
exit the region this weekend though waves will still average around
3-4 feet on the lakes.


Buf watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT Thursday for lez040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for
Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT Thursday for
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for



near term...apffel/jjr/Thomas
short term...tma
long term...tma

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