Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
1051 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2014
limited lake effect snow will develop tonight southeast of Lake
Ontario with spotty minor accumulations possible mainly just east of
Rochester. Temperatures will drop to well below average again for
Sunday before a moderating trend develops next week. Expect a dry
day Monday and Tuesday with sunshine through the day.
Near term /through Sunday/...
an Arctic front continues to drop southward across the northern
portion of New York state with a burst of snow showers along it. While the bulk
of the falling snow associated with this front will be to areas
east...some snow showers will clip the north country late this
evening. Additional accumulation will be light...generally an inch
or so...but gusty winds will bring some blowing snow to the open
Country Side of the north. As cold air continues to deepen over Lake
Ontario lake effect snow will continue to increase in strength. A
look at infrared places this snow from about Monroe to far western Oswego
County and inland to just south of the thruway. There appears to
even be some upstream connection with moisture off Georgian Bay
enhancing the lake effect snow showers this late evening.
Expect multiple bands of lake effect snow or snow showers to
continue from the Monroe County shore and eastern suburbs of
Rochester to northern Cayuga County and possibly far western Oswego
County. One or two somewhat dominant bands may form within this
regime and produce spotty 1-3 inch amounts mainly in Wayne and
northern Cayuga counties where upstream moisture from Georgian Bay
will likely bring the greatest snow totals. A few lighter snow showers may
also be found farther west across Niagara...Orleans and Genesee
counties as well.
The lake effect will last southeast of Lake Ontario into Sunday
morning...but then quickly taper to scattered flurries and end
during the day with drier air and the strong March sun angle taking
their toll. Elsewhere expect a decent amount of sunshine with some
diurnal cumulus developing. High clouds will also brush the southern
tier to the north of a significant system moving through the Middle
Temperatures will once again take a nose dive as a trough digging
into southeast Canada delivers another very cold airmass. Expect
lows in the lower teens tonight on the lake plains and single
numbers across the southern tier and east of Lake Ontario. Highs on
Sunday will only reach the middle to upper teens in most areas with the
higher terrain east of Lake Ontario struggling to 10 degrees. This
is about 20-25 degrees below average for middle March.
Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/...
Arctic high pressure will build east across the Great Lakes to the
St Lawrence Valley for the first half of next week providing
plentiful sunshine and dry weather. The high will also keep our
area shielded from a southern stream storm which will shift across
the deep south and off the Carolina coast. The location of the
center of high pressure as it shifts east with respect to New York
will be the main player in our temperature forecast.
Sunday night and Monday the center of the high will shift east from
northern Michigan to just north of Lake Ontario. This will bring
northerly winds across New York state which will become light and
variable through Monday. The reinforcing cold advection will keep
well below average temperatures with lows Sunday night down to the
single digits and highs Monday only climbing into the 20s. Monday
night and Tuesday the high shifts northeast of the forecast area
centering across southern Quebec/northern New England. Winds across
New York will become southeasterly and increase ahead of a clipper
crossing the upper Midwest. This will advect warmer air northward
gradually warming temperatures back to near middle March averages.
Another cool night possible Monday under mainly clear skies with
lows in the teens then Tuesday we look to warm to around 40 across
western New York and middle 30s for central New York. A breezy
southeasterly flow Tuesday night will keep mild temperatures overnight
generally limited to only falling into the upper 20s north to middle
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
a Pacific sourced flow and low amplitude middle-level ridging will help
the last day of what has been an exceptional winter season feel more
like Spring as we transition into this new season this week. Forecast
models are consistent with lifting a clipper north across the upper
Great Lakes to Quebec Wednesday and Thursday. Deep layered south to
southwest flow ahead of this clipper will boost temperatures to the
middle and upper 40s Wednesday across western New York and around 40
east of Lake Ontario. Some downsloping across the Lake Shores and
southern tier/Genesee valleys may even bring temperatures topping 50
degrees. Models show a cold front and low level jet crossing New
York during the day will bring a period of rain showers but exact
timing still needs to be ironed out in future runs.
On Thursday we will welcome Spring with open arms at 1257pm. Behind
the cold front and clipper a modified Pacific sourced airmass will
remain across the forecast area as broad high pressure over the
central states shifts east. Some lingering moisture and cooler air
aloft may bring some diurnal instability rain/snow showers on
Thursday. Temperatures look to run near average with highs around 40 and
lows in the upper 20s. The surface high will shift across the
southern half of the East Coast by Friday with drier air and
subsidence likely preventing much of any precipitation with near average
temperatures. There are signs of another clipper to arrive Friday
night or Saturday with separate model solutions for its track...so
have featured a chance of rain showers until better agreement in
models is found.
Aviation /03z Sunday through Thursday/...
at 00z MVFR and VFR ceilings are found across wny this evening. Some
lower ceilings and visibilities are developing to the southeast of Lake Ontario
where lake effect snow is forming. These lower ceilings...with embedded
IFR visibilities in lake effect snow...may brush by the Rochester airfield
with the northwest flow. Otherwise expect an improvement back to VFR
as drier air drops southward across the taf region. For now will
just lower kroc to MVFR as IFR visibility snow should remain just to the
east of the airfield.
For tomorrow any low ceilings with lake effect snow should end by the
early daylight hours Sunday. Some patchy middle level clouds are
possible through the day...with skies becoming sky clear for many be the
end of the taf period.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain/snow showers.
a moderate to strong northwest flow in the wake of a secondary cold
front will produce high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake
Ontario tonight. Moderate northwest winds will continue on Sunday
before diminishing Sunday night as high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes region.
high temperatures on Sunday will be frigid for middle March. The
record cold high temperatures for March 16th are 18 at Buffalo in
1911...18 at Rochester in 1911...and 20 at Watertown in 1956. We
are forecasting highs very close to the record at kbuf and kroc...
and several degrees below the record at kart.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for loz042-043.