Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
118 am EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over
the north country through Monday night. High temperatures will be
in the 80s Monday and Tuesday. The next chance for widespread
showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday into Wednesday.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 116 am EDT Monday...high pressure both aloft and at the surface
has resulted in clear skies and light winds. Temperatures have cooled
into the upper 40s deeper mountain values to near 60f btv. Only change
to current forecast was to drop expected low temperatures by several degrees.
Otherwise...expect areas of patchy fog to develop with lows
ranging from the middle 40s slk/nek to upper 50s/near 60f cpv.
Going forecast remains on track. With latest update...only minor
adjustments to hourly parameters such as temperatures and dewpoints for
late this evening to reflect latest conditions and trends. High
pressure...both at surface and aloft...will continue to build
across the region overnight. The result will will be clear skies
and light/calm winds with some patchy dense fog later
tonight...mainly in the climatology favored mountain and river valleys.
Still looking at min temperatures to range from the upper 40s in normally
cooler portions of Adirondacks to the lower 60s in the Champlain
Short term /6 am this morning through Tuesday night/...
as of 402 PM EDT Sunday...a sunny day is expected across the
north country on Monday as the ridge of high pressure at the
surface and aloft will remain over the region. Expecting highs in
the lower to middle 80s. Skies will start out clear Monday
night...but expecting increasing clouds late Monday night as
moisture currently over the southeastern U.S. Moves north ahead of
an upper trough.
On Tuesday...dew points climb into the middle to upper 60s. Surface
based cape values climb to 500 to 1400 j/kg by late Tuesday
afternoon...with surface based lifted index values lower to -2 to
-4 by late Tuesday afternoon. 0-6 km bulk shear values around 50
knots remain well northwest of the region in Canada Tuesday
afternoon...so not expecting any thunderstorms that develop to
become severe. The main concern Tuesday afternoon will be the
potential for locally heavy rainfall for any thunderstorms that do
develop as precipitable water values per BUFKIT forecast soundings
will be from 1.5 to 2.O inches by Tuesday afternoon. Expecting
thunderstorm activity to linger into early Tuesday evening before
tapering off to showers. Have held off on putting in any enhanced
wording for heavy rainfall in the forecast at this time...but
would like to see another model run or two before forecaster confidence
becomes higher with this possibility.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 247 PM EDT Sunday...medium range guidance in much better
agreement today for the extended period from Wednesday through
Sunday leading to increased forecast confidence. Surface cold
front timing is now on track for late Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning as depicted by yesterdays European model (ecmwf)/CMC and now
supported by todays 12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. Showers and possibly a
rumble of thunder over the region in the morning should exit to
the east southeast through middle-day with drying conditions ensuing
thereafter as high pressure builds into the region. Zonal flow
sets up aloft over much of the northern Continental U.S. For the remainder of
the period and while there are hints of some embedded weak
shortwave energy overall conditions should be dry through Saturday
with high pressure anchored at the surface. At this point Sunday
looks dry as well though a deep closed low over James Bay will be
dropping a frontal boundary towards the Canadian border so have
carried some low chance probability of precipitation. Temperatures through the period will be
very seasonal with highs in the 70s/80s, and lows in the 50s/60s.
Aviation /05z Monday through Friday/...
through 00z Tuesday...mainly VFR expected through the period with
the exception of some localized IFR/LIFR fog/br overnight and
early Monday morning. Fair weather cumulus clouds gradually
dissipate this evening and overnight with mostly clear skies and
light winds allowing for the development of radiational fog/br.
Mpv/slk at greatest threat for dense fog...with some MVFR/briefly
IFR br possible at pbg as well. Fog/br lifts after 12z Monday
morning with only few-scattered fair weather cumulus redeveloping
Monday afternoon. Winds light and variable tonight (except southeast 6-8
kts at rut) become S/SW 4-9 knots on Monday (except southeast lake breeze
Outlook 18z Monday through Friday...
00z Tuesday - 12z Tue: VFR. No sig weather.
12z Tuesday - 00z Wed: VFR. Scattered MVFR thunderstorms and rain possible.
00z Wednesday - 00z Thu: VFR/MVFR. Rain showers likely. Chance thunderstorms and rain.
00z Thursday - 00z Sat: VFR. Early morning IFR fog possible at
ktyx radar will be out of service until Tuesday or later.
equipment...weather forecast office btv