Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
333 am EST Tuesday Feb 9 2016
occasional light snow will occur overnight into Tuesday morning
with accumulations generally a dusting to several inches across
the north country. A deepening trough of low pressure will produce
additional snow showers through Friday...before the coldest air
mass of the season arrives over the weekend. Temperatures will be
near normal this week...but will drop way below normal by the
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 103 am EST Tuesday...light snow falling across most of the
forecast area at this time. Based on latest surface observations
have lowered min temperatures overnight in a number of locations a
few degrees from the previous forecast. Otherwise...current
forecast is in good shape.
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
as of 315 am EST Tuesday...from Wednesday through Thursday a
large upper level trough will be over the eastern Continental U.S.. during the
day Wednesday and again on Thursday will have shortwaves move through upper
level flow and enhance snow shower activity during the daytime
hours. Will also have cold air advection through this
period...especially Thursday. Precipitable waters are pretty low and not a lot
of low level moisture...only expecting light snowfall amounts with
the higher amounts in the mountains. As cold pool aloft moves into
our forecast area daytime maximum temperatures on Thursday will be about ten
degrees colder than Wednesday...only in the lower 20s and teens.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 330 am EST Tuesday...upper level trough remains over the
northeast all the way through Sunday...then finally moves eastward
Sunday night and Monday. Will have some snow showers again Friday
and Friday night...then drier weather for the weekend. Upper level
low drops over our area Saturday and coldest air of the season
will be in place. Saturday and Sunday will be cold...then
temperatures recover Monday as cold upper level trough slides
eastward. Temperatures on Saturday will have a hard time making it
out of the single digits in our area. This is about 25 degrees
below normal. May have some wind chill issues Friday night through
Saturday night...Saturday night looks like it will be the coldest
time period...and a decent gradient on backside of upper trough as
it begins to push eastward. Sometime early next week looks to be
our next chance at any significant precipitation...though GFS and
European model (ecmwf) not quite in agreement that far out yet...both models due
show some precipitation.
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
through 06z Wednesday...an upper low and a weak surface low will
keep the region in IFR/MVFR conditions in periods of light snow
through the period. Surface winds will also be less than 10 knots
through the period.
Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...
06z Wednesday-00z Friday...MVFR/IFR in periods of light snow.
00z Fri-Onward...VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR in scattered to