Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
310 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2014
a cold front and upper trough crossing the north country this
afternoon and evening are bringing a period of rain and snow
showers to the area. Colder air will move into the region with gusty
northwest winds overnight. Sunday through Tuesday will be very
cold and dry. The next chance for precipitation will arrive in the
second half of the work week.
Near term /until 8 am Sunday morning/...
as of 257 PM EDT Saturday...cold front continues to cross region
this afternoon. Warm south flow out ahead of the front allowed
temperatures to reach the 40s in most locations for highs today.
Periods of rain and snow showers continue out ahead and along the
front...especially in the higher terrain where upslope flow is
enhancing precipitation. There may be an increase in intensity
right along the front...where a brief period of heavier rain or
snow may occur...especially across the higher terrain.
West/southwest upslope flow this afternoon will turn
west/northwest behind front with upslope enhanced rain/snow
continuing into the evening. With Froude numbers just greater than
1 indicating unblocked flow...greatest coverage and precipitation
amounts will occur right along and just downwind of the mountains.
This is already occurring this afternoon where observed reports
confirm little to nothing occurring in Underhill/Jericho with
steady snow on Mount Mansfield and in Stowe. This should
gradually taper off after 03z as drier air works into the
region...however chances for mountain snow showers will continue
through the night. Total snowfall accumulations of 2-4" in the
highest elevations are expected...and generally less than an inch
elsewhere...with very little to no accumulations in the larger
valleys. Temperatures will fall steadily behind the front...with
fairly robust cold air advection on gusty northwest winds. Looking
at lows by morning in the single digits and teens.
Short term /8 am Sunday morning through Monday night/...
as of 257 PM EDT Saturday...cold air advection continues on Sunday.
Mostly cloudy skies...and perhaps a few lingering mountain
flurries to start the day will see a slow clearing trend heading
into the afternoon/evening as high pressure noses in from the
west. Temperatures will be well below normal...with highs only in
the teens to around 20 and a northwest breeze pushing wind chills
Skies become mostly clear for most Sunday night as high pressure
slowly builds in...with the exception of southern and eastern
Vermont where a cirrus canopy from a system passing well to the
south may move in. This will allow temperatures to nosedive across
a lot of the region...especially for northern New York where clear
skies and light winds are expected. Lows generally from 0 to -10
degrees are expected...slightly warmer in southern Vermont and
slightly colder in the Adirondacks.
Monday will see mostly sunny skies with high pressure directly
overhead. Even with the sun...it will remain quite cold with highs
only 15 to 25 degrees. Clear skies continue Monday night...with
another very cold night expected. Some return flow across northern
New York as the high pressure exits will likely keep them from
getting as cold as Sunday night. Lows will be in the single digits
on either side of zero for most...except for northeastern Vermont
where temperatures may fall as low as -10 to -15 in near-ideal
radiational cooling conditions.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
as of 306 PM EDT Saturday...high pressure over the NE region
starts off the extended period on Tuesday..with surface ridge cresting
over the area during the day...sliding slowly eastward through the
overngt hours. This will put County Warning Area in warm sector going into Wednesday
ahead of approaching surface low...which models put over the Great Lakes
region Wednesday morning. Surface low will track north-northeast into Quebec through
Thursday...and with blocking ridge to the east over the
Atlantic...frontal passage will occur over 24-hour period...giving way to
continuing precipitation on backside of exiting system on
Thursday...trailing off into Friday with high pressure building north
and east into the area. Ridge sliding offshore by Friday
night...giving way to yet another storm system...to approach the
County Warning Area with warm frontal precipitation initially...then low passage through
Saturday. Precipitation/temperatures in the extended...decent day expected
across the area for Tuesday/Tuesday night with surface ridge intact. 850 temperatures
Tuesday range from -8c to -12c and with clear skies...looking for
l30s at best for highs and for overngt lows cold at first off with
clear skies/calm winds and will be going for early lows in the teens
before southerly flow/warm air advection kick in towards 12z Wednesday. With slow track of
low for midweek next week...County Warning Area will see -SW at onset Wednesday
then transition to -rw/-SW mix through day as region remains in warm
sector under southerly flow. Precipitation will transition to all -SW
overngt as frontal precipitation transitions to orographic -SW with winds
becm west-northwest on backside of low. -SW will continue through the day
Thursday...tapering to hir terrain into Friday with approach of ridge
from south. Region on cold side of front for late next week. Temperatures
cold enough for -SW to start with possible change to -rw/-SW late
in day. Temperatures Wednesday through Sat will have highs ranging from mainly the
30s west/ spots 20s in hir elev. Overngt lows will be in teens through
middle 20s. Spot around 30f readings in cvly Wednesday night as
region see transition to colder airmass.
Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/...
through 18z Sunday...passage of cold front will have MVFR/VFR
conditions drop down to IFR at times through 00z Sunday. Rain shower/SW for
p-type through 00z sun then -SW as temperatures drop. Visibility mainly 3-6sm west/
1-2sm possible in heavier -SW for slk/mss/mpv. Ceilings mainly
bkn015-050 with occasional ovc010 or less for slk. After 07z Sunday...conditions
becm VFR with scattered clouds from west to east. South-southwest winds 15-25kts will
shift to west-northwest by 00z sun from west to east.
Outlook 18z Sunday through Thursday...
18z Sunday through Tuesday night...VFR with high pressure building
in at the surface. Northwest winds gusting 20-25 kts Sunday.
Wednesday and Thursday...MVFR/IFR conditions in snow/rain showers.
near-record low temperatures are forecast for some locations
Monday and Tuesday mornings. The records are listed below.
btv: -6 (1985)
mpv: -11 (1967)
mss: -5 (1950)
sjbv1: -16 (1916)
btv: -7 (1961)
mpv: -16 (1956)
mss: -10 (1993)
sjbv1: -14 (1967)