Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
412 PM EDT sun Aug 30 2015
an unseasonably warm and dry weather pattern will persist across
the north country through the next 7 days...associated with the
continued presence of a mean upper level ridge across the central
and eastern United States. High temperatures through the period
will average 10 to 15 degrees above normal. No significant
rainfall is expected...but an upper level disturbance may bring a
few showers to the region late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Near term /until 8 am Monday morning/...
as of 351 PM EDT Sunday...generally quiet weather expected
tonight...with patchy nocturnal fog expected in the favored
valleys 05-12z Monday. Area of confluent 700-500mb flow across the
northern Adirondacks this evening is associated with increasing area of
cloudiness...and may generate an isolated shower or two through this
evening. The NAM/btv4km/btv12km WRF runs also suggest possible
shower activity in this region...and have carried a 20 pop to
cover through this evening. Otherwise...looking at dry conditions.
Areas of cumulus clouds...generally decreasing with loss of
daytime heating and trending mostly clear overnight. SW winds
5-10mph late this afternoon will generally trend light and
variable for tonight. Low temperatures generally several degrees warmer
than last night...in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Short term /8 am Monday morning through Tuesday night/...
as of 351 PM EDT Sunday...generally looking at rising 700-500mb
heights as strong upper ridge builds from the upper MS valley eastward
across the Great Lakes on Monday...and then across New York and
New England for Tuesday. General warming trend expected through
the period...though humidity values look to increase only
modestly (pbl dewpoints into the low 60s). Mostly clear skies will
contribute to highs in the middle 80s on Monday...and middle-upper 80s for
Tuesday. Will continue to see nocturnal fog in the valleys east of
the Green Mountains and within the Adirondack region 06-12z Tuesday and
again 06-12z Wednesday.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 331 PM EDT Sunday...a ridge of high pressure at the surface
and aloft will be over the region through the period. Temperatures
will be well above seasonal normals with highs reaching near 90 in
the Champlain Valley. A couple weak frontal systems will be
around...best chance for showers will be Thursday with a cold
front dropping south across our forecast area...slight chance for
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Only very weak shortwaves to
pass through the area though...not expecting any significant
Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/...
through 18z Monday...VFR conditions expected through the period
with a weak ridge of high pressure over the region. Ceilings will
be mainly above 10000 feet. Surface winds will be 10 knots or
Outlook 18z Monday through Friday...
18z Mon-Thursday...VFR. Periods early morning vlifr/IFR mainly at
kmpv and kslk. Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms on