Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1050 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014
a cold front will move across the region overnight. A ridge of
high pressure will build south from Canada on Thursday and bring
much cooler and drier air to the north country through Saturday.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
as of 1046 PM EDT Wednesday...convective storms have pushed well
south and east of the north country and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been canceled across Vermont and northern New York. Please refer to the local
storm report statement for damage reports received across the
region this afternoon.
Lingering showers across Rutland/Windsor/Orange counties will
generally end by 06z. High pressure building eastward from the Great
Lakes will result in northwest flow and cold/dry air advection
overnight...along with gradual clearing from NW-se. May see a bit
of patchy fog at times...especially across Vermont where some locations
received 1-2" of rainfall. That said...the drier air and northwest winds
5-10 miles per hour will limit extent/duration of fog in most locations
overnight due to mixing. Low temperatures will generally be in the
50s...with dewpoints falling into the low-middle 50s in most
locations by daybreak...and locally into the upper 40s across northern
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/...
as of 446 PM EDT Wednesday...high pressure will build into the
region on Thursday with cooler and much less humid air across the
region. The high will bring fair and dry weather to the region
through Friday night.
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 446 PM EDT Wednesday...expecting a dry day on Saturday as a
weak ridge of high pressure will be over the region. The remainder
of the extended period looks to be unsettled as both the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) models show an upper trough setting up through the period
across the Great Lakes...so will have a chance for showers and
thunderstorms through most of the extended period. Given the
ongoing strong thunderstorms in part of the forecast area...did
not spend much time on the extended forecast and went with the
super-blend during this period.
Aviation /03z Thursday through Monday/...
through 00z Friday...improving conditions throughout the evening
and overnight as cold front has pushed through the cpv...leaving
lingering showers across central and southern Vermont. Kpbg/kmpv
and krut may see a few more showers...with visibilities reducing to
MVFR/IFR. Drier air is filtering in on northwest flow at kmss and will
spread south and east overnight. Expect winds to be vrb around 5
kts or less at all but kmss early this evening. Before drying northwest
flow spreads across the north country...areas of patchy fog may
develop...with MVFR visibilities possible. By 03z/04z...expect northwest winds to
take hold of the area...at 6-10kts...dissipating the patchy fog.
VFR low clouds will diminishing throughout the night...with few-
scattered by sunrise.
Thursday morning will see winds increase to 8-12kts continuing
out of the northwest. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day.
Outlook 00z Friday through Monday...
00z Friday - 00z sun...VFR under high pressure. Late night and early
morning IFR or lower visibility in fog/mist at mpv and slk
possible. An isolated afternoon shower over the higher terrain is
00z sun Onward...VFR/MVFR with increasing chance of showers and