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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
335 PM EDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

high pressure over the region this afternoon will continue to
provide generally dry conditions to the north country through
Friday with temperatures returning to seasonal normals to end the
work week. A weak upper trough and surface cold front will bring a
few rain and snow showers to the area Friday night into Saturday
morning...but high pressure returns by Saturday afternoon and
continues through Sunday for a nice end to the weekend.


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
as of 334 PM EDT Thursday...quiet night expected across the north
country as high pressure over the region slowly drifts northeast
into the Canadian Maritimes. Outside of a few cirrus clouds
drifting southwest to northeast across the County Warning Area...conditions will
be mainly clear and dry...and slightly warmer than last night
as southerly flow increases between the departing high and an
approaching cold front. Look for lows generally in the 20s...with
a few teens possible in the colder hollows of the dacks and
Northeast Kingdom.


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...
as of 334 PM EDT Thursday...sunny and dry conditions will start
the day on Friday but clouds and southerly flow will be on the
increase from west to east through the day as low pressure
tracking northeast through southern Ontario/Quebec drags a cold
front towards the area. Ahead of the front...925 temperatures rebound
nicely from below 0c in the morning to +3-5c by the afternoon
supporting highs near normal in the 50s middle/upper 40s
elsewhere. Front approaches the St. Lawrence Valley late in the
day with a few rain showers moving in by sunset. Due to the dry
antecedent surface conditions...along with weak lift and a very
thin ribbon of 1000-700mb moisture associated with the front...not
expected more than a tenth of quantitative precipitation forecast area-wide with the frontal
passage. As it does shift across the area Friday night though...mean
bl temperatures do support a transition to some snow showers across the
higher terrain of the dacks and NE Vermont...but should only amount to
a dusting to around an inch.

Front clears the area to the east Saturday morning with lingering
precipitation across NE Vermont ending by mid-day. 850-925mb temperatures crash back
below 0c on cold northwest flow so don't expect highs Saturday to get
out of the 40s...maybe touch 50 in the valleys if we're lucky.
Another clear and cold night will be on tap for Saturday night as
high pressure builds back into the region with lows generally in
the 20s expected.


Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 307 PM EDT Thursday...overall active pattern expected
throughout the long term. Surface high pressure will slide eastward into
the Atlantic on Sunday...shifting winds out of the SW with an
influx of warm air. Upper level energy will approach the north
country Monday...increasing the threat for rain showers. A more
significant trough will move across the Great Lakes region Monday
night...developing a surface low which will bring a greater threat
for rain showers in above normal temperatures ahead of a cold
front. This front will move through the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night...shifting winds out of the northwest and cooling
temperatures slightly to near normal. Drier air will build into
the region with more high pressure for the middle of the week.


Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/...
through 18z Friday...VFR expected with scattered-broken high clouds
persisting. South to southeast winds at 8-13 kts...gusting 15-20
kts during the afternoon in the cpv and krut. Kmss winds will be

This evening winds will subside to 10kts or less at all
terminals...recovering in the middle morning Friday...mainly out of
the south at 10-15kts with gusts of 18-22kts heading into the
midday hours.

Outlook 18z Friday through Tuesday...

18z Friday through 00z Saturday...VFR with high pressure.

00z Saturday through 00z Sunday...mainly VFR with scattered MVFR
showers with weak frontal passage.

00z Sunday through 06z Monday...VFR with high pressure.

06z Monday Onward...mainly VFR with scattered MVFR showers as
additional frontal energy affects the area.


Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...lahiff
short term...lahiff
long term...kgm