Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
914 PM EDT Monday Aug 3 2015
areal coverage of storms continues to decrease across the north
country tonight with little or no precipitation expected during
the overnight hours. Otherwise...seasonably cooler air will
arrive into the area for Tuesday into Wednesday...though with a
continued chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. Drier weather
returns from Thursday Onward into much of the upcoming weekend as
temperatures remain slightly below early August norms.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
as of 914 PM EDT Monday...remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
has been cancelled across south central Vermont. Expecting
isolated showers or thunderstorms for the next couple of hours
before convective threat completely comes to an end. Have tweaked
the forecast to move in this direction.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night/...
as of 441 PM EDT Monday...for Tuesday into Wednesday upper trough
progresses slowly eastward and sags southward slightly over time.
Latest models continue prior trends in showing additional
shortwave energy progressing across the region in the deep
cyclonic flow aloft with favorable arrival times for showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Best chance for seeing
thunderstorms will be Tuesday when instability is greatest...and
may be enough to support a few stronger storms with locally gusty
winds and small hail. Have gone with highest probability of precipitation over northern
areas both days...mainly in the likely category with greatest
chances during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be trending cooler
with highs Tuesday in the upper 70s and lower 80s...and mainly in
the lower to middle 70s Wednesday.
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
as of 441 PM EDT Monday... persistence cyclonic flow continues
across the region albeit lessening intensity as we get to late
Pretty uneventful...cool cyclonic flow with August sun will likely
lead to instability and low threat of isolated -shra/-tsra through the
period. Models suggest a southern stream system Friday/Friday night but
still leaning that we'll be on northern edge at worst...thus
keeping mainly dry from this system.
Temperatures will largely be at or below seasonable levels but only a few
degrees with highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s/40s cold
Aviation /01z Tuesday through Saturday/...
VFR conditions through the period with the exception of MVFR in
vicinity of thunderstorms from 18-24z. IFR/LIFR possible at kmpv/kslk
between 07-12z Tuesday.
Scattered -shra and possible thunderstorms and rain after 16z Tuesday...otherwise VFR conditions.
South-southwest winds 10-20 kts through 22-24z then light between 00-12z then SW/west at
10 knots after 12z Tuesday.
Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
18z Tuesday - 12z Thursday...mainly VFR...scattered afternoon
showers/thunderstorms with brief MVFR/IFR possible. Patchy IFR in
br/fog possible 06-12z each morning, mainly at kmpv/kslk terminals.
12z Thursday Onward...mainly VFR as surface high pressure tries to
build in over the Great Lakes region.
AWOS observational data from the Rutland/southern Vermont
regional Airport (krut) remain unavailable at this time. For
aviation partners current observations may be accessed via telco.
Please reference FAA krut notam 07/007 for more information.