Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1222 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014
a surface cold front which brought showers to the region yesterday
and this morning will shift east of the area today with scattered
showers tapering off. High pressure begins to build across the
northeast tonight...and will dominate the north country's weather
for the next week. Temperatures will trend below normal for the
first half of the week...then warm to above normal next weekend.
Near term /until 7 PM this evening/...
as of 945 am EDT Monday...forecast remains on track for today as
cold front in progress of clearing our southeastern counties as of
900 am. Still could see a brief light shower/sprinkle in lingering
Post frontal moisture as cold thermal advective processes
continue...but this should mainly be confined to the higher
terrain through late morning/early afternoon. Valley locales
mainly dry. Winds west to northwesterly and blustery today as
readings hold steady in the 45 to 55 range. Only notable changes
were to adjust sky toward current observational trends...which rap
850 relative humidity forecasts appear to be handling well. Also tweaked probability of precipitation
downward a tad...especially larger valleys. Have a great day.
Short term /7 PM this evening through Wednesday/...
as of 330 am EDT Monday...Monday night will mark the beginning of
an extremely quiet and pleasant stretch of Fall weather across the
north country. Aforementioned high pressure over the Ohio River
valley slowly builds eastward into the northeast through the
period...with generally clear and dry conditions expected. Lows
will run a bit below normal in the middle 30s to middle 40s...but highs
will be right around normal ranging through the 60s.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 223 am EDT Monday...the 00z European model (ecmwf)/GFS continue to support
the idea of an extended period of warmer and drier weather...with
a deep-layer ridge in control across the Great Lakes and northestern
Continental U.S.. look for plenty of sunshine through the period and warming
temperatures. High temperatures will be in the low to middle 70s
(8-10 degree above normal)...and possibly in the upper 70s for
Saturday. Air mass will be relatively dry...with lows dropping
into the middle 40s to low 50s across the north country. Anticipate
some patchy nocturnal fog in the favored river valleys of central
and eastern Vermont each night. Probability of precipitation none through the period.
Aviation /16z Monday through Friday/...
through 12z Tuesday...strong cold front is shifting eastward
across eastern Vermont at 1130z. In the wake of the
boundary...variable ceilings will exist...with widespread MVFR
across northern New York...but periods of VFR conditions at pbg/btv with
downsloping westerly winds off the Adirondacks. Anticipate the
higher terrain will be obscured most of the day. Overall...anticipate
ceilings to lift to VFR by late afternoon/early evening
areawide...except locally at slk where ceilings likely remain MVFR
through the period with upslope effects. Not expecting much in the
way of precipitation at the taf sites today...but a brief sprinkle
is possible at slk/mpv. Winds generally west-northwest 10-14kts with gusts
20-22 kts with steep low-level lapse rates...creating some
turbulence below 3 kft above ground level.
Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...dry with building high
pressure. Generally VFR...except LIFR/vlifr nocturnal fog
possible slk/mpv 06-12z each morning Tuesday through Friday.
a lake Wind Advisory has been issued for this afternoon and into
the evening. Gusty west winds from 15 to 25 knots have developed
and will persist through the remainder of the day. This will
create waves from 2 to 4 feet...greatest along the eastern side of
the lake and along westward facing shores. Winds will taper down
after 8 PM tonight to 10 to 20 knots...with waves subsiding to 1
to 2 feet.