Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
739 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Synopsis...
other than a few evening showers...high pressure will provide dry
and seasonable weather to the region through Friday morning. A
weak frontal boundary sagging south into the region may spark a
few showers by Friday and Saturday afternoon...but most areas
should remain dry. Temperatures gradually warm through the period
with more humid and summerlike conditions expected by later in
the weekend and into early next week.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
as of 729 PM EDT Tuesday...going forecast in good shape. Only
minor changes made...most noticeable being the removal of any
mention of rain showers. Otherwise partly-mostly cloudy skies
across southern and eastern Vermont will gradually trend mostly
clear by morning as the low pressure riding northeastward along a
frontal boundary along the middle Atlantic and southern New England
coastline slowly departs.
Previous discussion from 330 PM EDT Tuesday..
mainly quiet weather expected across our area tonight as surface
high pressure continues to slowly build into the region from the
west and northwest. However cyclonic flow aloft continues across
our region with a weak secondary surface trough evident across southern
Quebec...along which a few showers have developed this afternoon.
Have thus introduced just an outside shot of an isolated shower or
two far northeast through early evening...otherwise i'm expecting
a mainly dry night. Clouds a tad more problematic...especially
south where middle to high level relative humidity may linger a tad longer.
Nonetheless expect most areas to trend clear to partly cloudy by
midnight or shortly thereafter as temperatures bottom out mainly
in the 40s with customary cool/warm spots. Did opt to back off on
br/fog potential after assessing the 12z guidance...which suggests
enough north to northwesterly flow atop the planetary boundary layer overnight to
Foster better dry air entrainment down into the near surface
layers.
&&
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/...
as of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...outstanding stretch of weather then
expected for the middle portions of the work week (wed/thu) as
aforementioned surface high pressure builds directly atop the
region. Thus clear to partly cloudy skies expected with some
shallow depth fair weather cumulus occurring each day over the
elevated terrain during the afternoon hours. Winds light.
Averaged 18-00z model blended 925 mb thermal forecasts support highs
from 68 to 74 on Wednesday...then 2-4 degrees milder 71 to 77 or
so by Thursday. Overnight lows 38 to 48 Wednesday night...though with
customary variability given expected nocturnal radiative effects.
By Thursday night clear to partly cloudy skies continue as high
pressure continues to remain dominant influence. Models maintain
the idea that a weak/dying frontal boundary will attempt to sag
southward toward the international border by sunrise Friday. Kept with the
idea of mainly dry weather...but did increase cloud cover just a
tad far north to account for uncertainty in the eventual location
of the boundary. Lows a tad milder as light south/southwesterly
return flow expected...mainly 45 to 55.
&&
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 415 PM EDT Tuesday...generally warm surface high pressure
will be over the north country through much of the extended
portion of the forecast. Maximum temperatures will start out in the upper
70s and trend towards middle 80s by early next week. Min temperatures will
trend from the middle 50s to the middle 60s. Initially region will be
under influence of progressive northwesterly upper level flow and
there will be several chances for showers from Friday through
Sunday with shortwaves passing through brisk upper level flow.
Difficult to time these small features at this point...therefore
have a lot of slight chance probability of precipitation. Large and hot upper level ridge
will slide eastward and across our forecast area during the early
part of next week and thicknesses approach 588. Think that with
heat and humidity moving into the area will have chance for some
instability showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours
next week...but again difficult to figure out timing and location
this far out.
&&
Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
through 00z Thursday...surface high pressure anchored across the
Great Lakes will bring VFR conditions with light north winds
overnight...and north winds 7-10 kts during the daylight hours
Wednesday. Only potential issue is patchy fog at mpv/slk between
06-12z. 2-meter dewpoints have dropped 10-12f compared to
yesterday evening...so this combined with high cloudiness at mpv
makes prospects for dense fog less likely overnight.
Outlook 18z Wednesday through Saturday...
18z Wednesday through 06z Friday...VFR under high pressure with
patchy late night/early morning fog possible 06-12z each
day...with the greatest potential at kslk/kmpv.
06z Friday through Saturday...generally VFR with
isolated/scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms possible.
&&
Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
Vermont...none.
New York...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...jmg
near term...jmg/muccilli
short term...jmg
long term...neiles
aviation...banacos/neiles
