Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
929 am EST Tuesday Feb 9 2016
a closed upper low and weak surface low pressure area will bring
periods of light snow to the north country today through Saturday.
An Arctic cold front will move south from Canada on Friday and
will bring the coldest air of the winter season to the north
country Friday through Sunday night...with high temperatures only
in the single digits above zero on Saturday and Sunday...and below
zero lows Saturday night.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
as of 929 am EST Tuesday...the synoptic picture across the north
country for the next 24 hours will continue to feature a broad
upper trough over much of the eastern Continental U.S. With several weak
pieces of shortwave energy providing on and off chances for some
light snow showers. Overnight activity has waned this morning in
the wake of exiting upper level energy now off in the Gulf of St.
Lawrence being replaced by weak surface high pressure. Additional
moisture though shifting northward from central PA and the Mohawk
River valley will enhance precipitation potential again towards
the noon hour with some light snow showers possible. Little to no
accumulation is expected before activity wanes again going into
the late afternoon and evening. Highs today will push towards
seasonal normals in the middle 20s to around 30.
For tonight, there will be little overall change synoptically with
the upper level trough persisting and an abundant amount of cloud
cover around. Chances for light snow remain, but overall we should
see less areal coverage than last night with lows dropping off
into the teens to lower 20s.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday/...
as of 315 am EST Tuesday...from Wednesday through Thursday a
large upper level trough will be over the eastern Continental U.S.. during the
day Wednesday and again on Thursday will have shortwaves move through upper
level flow and enhance snow shower activity during the daytime
hours. Will also have cold air advection through this
period...especially Thursday. Precipitable waters are pretty low and not a lot
of low level moisture...only expecting light snowfall amounts with
the higher amounts in the mountains. As cold pool aloft moves into
our forecast area daytime maximum temperatures on Thursday will be about ten
degrees colder than Wednesday...only in the lower 20s and teens.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 330 am EST Tuesday...upper level trough remains over the
northeast all the way through Sunday...then finally moves eastward
Sunday night and Monday. Will have some snow showers again Friday
and Friday night...then drier weather for the weekend. Upper level
low drops over our area Saturday and coldest air of the season
will be in place. Saturday and Sunday will be cold...then
temperatures recover Monday as cold upper level trough slides
eastward. Temperatures on Saturday will have a hard time making it
out of the single digits in our area. This is about 25 degrees
below normal. May have some wind chill issues Friday night through
Saturday night...Saturday night looks like it will be the coldest
time period...and a decent gradient on backside of upper trough as
it begins to push eastward. Sometime early next week looks to be
our next chance at any significant precipitation...though GFS and
European model (ecmwf) not quite in agreement that far out yet...both models due
show some precipitation.
Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/...
through 12z Wednesday...an upper low and a weak surface low will
keep the region in IFR/MVFR conditions in periods of light snow
through the period...with also some periods of VFR conditions.
Surface winds will also be less than 10 knots through the period.
Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday...
12z Wednesday-00z Friday...VFR with periods of MVFR/IFR in light snow.
00z Fri-Onward...VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR in scattered to