Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1236 PM EST sun Feb 14 2016
the coldest air of the season remains over the north country
today and with gusty northwest winds...very cold wind chills are
expected. Cold temperatures persist tonight...but winds will
become lighter. A warming trend takes place Monday into Tuesday. A
storm will impact the area Monday night into Tuesday bringing a
mix of snow and rain.
Near term /until 7 am Monday/...
as of 1236 PM EST Sunday...going forecast in good shape with
decreasing lake effect clouds off of Lake Champlain...slowly
warming temperatures...and decreasing winds. Still some very low
wind chills but its looking like we will be able to end the wind
chill warning by middle-afternoon instead of early tonight.
Short term /7 am Monday through Tuesday/...
as of 423 am EST Sunday...a clear and cold start to the day on
Monday with high pressure still over the region. Temperatures will
be well below zero in most areas to begin the day. But as the high
slides off the East Coast during the day on Monday...a return
southerly flow of air will develop. This will allow for temperatures to
rebound into the 20s during the afternoon. The southerly flow will
also result in an an increase in moisture. Expect increasing
clouds along with the chance of some light snow later in the day
due warm air advection and disturbance in flow aloft. The best
chance for seeing the light snow will be over southern and western
portions of forecast area.
Chances for precipitation will increase rapidly Monday night into
Tuesday as vigorous shortwave lifts out of lower Mississippi
Valley Monday night and races northeast with plentiful moisture
along an upper level trough. There is still some inconsistency
between models on track and intensity of the surface low...but
they are all indicating that the low will track north-northeast
through some part of our forecast area during the day on Tuesday.
The result will be a significant system with anomalously high
precipitable water...with an assortment of precipitation types
expected. Regardless of model solution...ptype Monday night will
be mainly snow. During the day on Tuesday...strong southerly middle
level jet will allow for enough warming for a change to mostly
rain...with a period of sleet and freezing rain as the snow
changes to mostly rain. Quantitative precipitation forecast may reach 1 to perhaps even 2
inches...so there is potential for significant amounts of
snow...rain or mixed precipitation. The more quantitative precipitation forecast that falls however...the
more likely it falls as rain. Preliminary estimates suggest
snowfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches before changeover...with some
light icing as well. Icing problems may continue even after
temperatures climb above freezing...due the present Arctic air
mass in place and cold ground temperatures. Maximum temperatures by later Tuesday
expected to range from the middle 30s to the lower 40s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 423 am EST Sunday...low pressure departs to the northeast
Tuesday night with rain or mixed precipitation tapering off...then trending
towards a chance of some light snow showers. There is the
continued chance for snow showers Wednesday with upper trough over
region and disturbance in flow aloft moving through. Temperatures
a little above normal despite cooler air moving in aloft. Expect
highs in the 30s...so there may be a little snow/rain mix in the
valleys. High pressure brings a return to drier and colder weather
for Thursday with some sunshine and highs in the upper teens and
20s. The high moves off the East Coast on Friday...while a series
of shortwaves in fast flow aloft approach from the Great Lakes
region. This will bring a chance of snow showers Friday and snow
or rain showers Saturday as temperatures rebound to seasonable levels on
Friday and above normal Saturday.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
through 18z Monday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period with high pressure moving into the region. Very little in
the way of cloud cover is expected along with decreasing winds.
Outlook 18z Monday through Thursday...Monday night into Tuesday a
coastal storm will spread heavy mixed wintry precipitation northward
into the region with widespread IFR aviation weather conditions likely
for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A clipper system on Wednesday and
Thursday may bring some MVFR conditions.
coldest low temperature records for February 13th for our climate
btv -25 1967
mpv -29 1967
mss -33 1967
sjbv1 -30 1967
mmnv1 -32 1967
Coldest high temperature records for Valentines day (february
btv -2 1979
mpv -4 1979
mss -3 1987
sjbv1 +2 1987
mmnv1 -19 1979
Coldest low temperature records for Valentines day (february
btv -19 1987
mpv -19 2003
mss -29 2003
sjbv1 -28 2003
mmnv1 -30 1979
Vermont...wind chill warning until 7 PM EST this evening for vtz001>012-
New York...wind chill warning until 7 PM EST this evening for nyz026>031-