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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1234 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND FROM NEAR MSS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND NERN PA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES REMAIN ON NRN FRINGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
900MB LIFTED PARCELS REALIZING 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT. EXPANDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER EWD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
FRONTAL BAND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH PW VALUES OF 1-1.2". BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS...A QUICK 0.25" RAINFALL
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO
RUTLAND COUNTY VT. ALSO...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TIMING OF RAINBAND. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM CURRENT
READINGS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 40S AREAWIDE.
SURFACE WINDS SE WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL GENERALLY SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTH AND SW TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SURFACE TROUGH/OCCULSION PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I'VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO

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