Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
257 PM EDT Friday Jul 31 2015
quiet weather is expected today before a series of disturbances
in the flow aloft bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
to the north country tonight through Saturday. Another pleasant
Summer day is expected on Sunday before the weather turns
unsettled again Sunday night into early next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1243 PM EDT Friday...going forecast remains on track. With
latest update...only minor adjustments made to hourly temperatures and
dewpoints to reflect latest conditions and trends through this
afternoon. Satellite pics indicating a good deal of stratocumulus
clouds...especially over the higher terrain. Expect skies to
average partly sunny for the rest of today with just the chance
for an isolated sprinkle over the northern greens. Otherwise a
dry and pleasant Summer day with maximum temperatures in the upper 70s and
lower 80s along with comfortable dewpoints mainly in the 50s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
as of 347 am EDT Friday...moving on into tonight and this weekend
the north country's weather will be largely dominated by fast
cyclonic flow aloft as a deep upper low takes residence over
hudson's Bay. Several shortwave troughs moving through the flow
will bring scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms with
the highest probabilities of precipitation coming Friday night and
First shortwave to impact the area is currently over far
southwestern Ontario and latest upstream Canadian radar does show
some widely scattered showers associated. Latest models show this
activity decaying as it approaches the north country but some
widely scattered showers will remain possible during the overnight
hours as this energy shifts through. Lows return to more comfortable
values in the middle 50s to low 60s. On Saturday, another slightly
stronger shortwave rotates through with a little better deep
layer moisture associated with it. Models continue to show some
weak surface instability developing as temperatures aloft cool and lapse
rate steepen so we'll be looking at a little more coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. Can't rule out an isolated stronger
storm, but overall they should more of the garden variety type and
not severe. Highs will once again be in the middle 70s to low 80s.
Any lingering showers should end with loss of daytime heating
Saturday night with lows again in the middle 50s to middle 60s. We'll be
in-between shortwave troughs Sunday with another pleasant Summer
day expected with highs right around normal.
Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
as of 256 PM EDT Friday...persistence is the name of the
game...thus discussion borrowed from midshift as the longer term has
looked the same for several days now. No heat waves on the
Broad upper troughing and seasonal middle-Summer temperatures for the
longer term. Precipitation chances will be tied to passing
shortwaves rotating through the base of the mean eastern Canada
trough, with the strongest of these features swinging through Monday
into Monday night with a decent threat of showers and thunderstorms.
Given timing and evidence of instability/increasing 0-6km shear some
of the convection could trend on the more robust side. Time will
tell. Outside of this time period, slight to low chance probability of precipitation (20-
40%) will be maintained for much of the period, suggesting that
while dry weather should be the general rule, a few showers will be
around from time to time. As mentioned above, temperatures will by
and large range within a few degrees of seasonal norms with daily
highs mainly in the 70s to around 80 (slightly warmer on monday) and
overnight lows in the 50s to around 60. R broad upper troughing and
seasonal middle-Summer temperatures. Precipitation chances will be tied
to passing shortwaves rotating through the base of the mean eastern
Canada trough, with the strongest of these features swinging through
Monday into Monday night with a decent threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Given timing and evidence of instability/increasing 0-
6km shear some of the convection could trend on the more robust
side. Time will tell. Outside of this time period, slight to low
chance probability of precipitation (20- 40%) will be maintained for much of the period,
suggesting that while dry weather should be the general rule, a few
showers will be around from time to time. As mentioned above,
temperatures will by and large range within a few degrees of
seasonal norms with daily highs mainly in the 70s to around 80
(slightly warmer on monday) and overnight lows in the 50s to around
Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
please see equipment section below for krut data outage
Through 18z Saturday...mainly VFR through the period with scattered
clouds in the 040-070agl range, broken at times over the higher
terrain. Winds generally west to southwesterly through the period,
around 10 kts with occasional gusts from 18-00z then light. After
00z ceilings trend occasionally broken from 035-060agl with approaching
trough which should spark scattered showers, mainly at kmss/kslk
terminals. A few showers may also encroach toward the
kpbg/kbtv/kmpv terminals after 06z but confidence lower. Brief
MVFR visibilities possible with this activity, mainly at kslk.
Thereafter...VFR with scattered-bkn040-060 and vicinity rain showers across the
region as afternoon approaches.
Outlook 18z Saturday through Tuesday...mainly VFR. Chance of
daily scattered showers/isolated thunder, especially on Saturday
and again by next Monday. Brief MVFR conds possible with any
heavier showers. Patchy IFR in br/fog possible at kmpv/kslk 06-12z
each morning, but synoptic setup not generally favorable for
persistent or widespread coverage.
AWOS observational data from the Rutland/southern Vermont
regional Airport (krut) remain unavailable at this time. For
aviation partners current observations may be accessed via telco.
Please reference FAA krut notam 07/007 for more information.