Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
351 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015
an upper trough will move through the region tonight with a chance
of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. A ridge of high
pressure at the surface and aloft will build into the north
country Sunday and Monday...with fair and dry weather expected. The
next chance for showers and thunderstorms across the north country
will be Tuesday and Wednesday.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
as of 351 PM EDT Saturday...composite radar loop showing showers
with some scattered thunderstorms across the Adirondacks at this
time. Will go with a chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms until midnight as an upper trough moves through the
region tonight. Have confined mention of thunderstorms to northern
New York and the northern half of Vermont early tonight...as laps
analysis showing conditions have destabilized in these areas.
Expecting and thunderstorm activity to diminish after sunset with
the loss of daytime surface heating. Expecting some partial
clearing to develop across the region after midnight.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday night/...
as of 351 PM EDT Saturday...models showing a ridge of high
pressure at the surface and aloft will build into the region
Sunday and Monday...with 500 mb heights building through the
period. Expecting temperatures to climb into the lower 80s on
Sunday and then into the middle and upper 80s on Monday. Mainly
partly to mostly sunny Sunday and Monday with fair and dry weather
expected through the period.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
as of 322 PM EDT Saturday...extended portion of the forecast
begins on Tuesday where medium range guidance continues to differ
in the timing of a frontal boundary passing through Tuesday night
into Wednesday associated with low pressure moving over the
southern tip of James Bay. Models are in decent agreement for
Tuesday with the County Warning Area in the warm sector and some modest
instability leading to the chance for some popup tsra, but the
timing of the following cold front differs. 12z runs of the European model (ecmwf)
and Canadian Gem are in good agreement offering a later frontal
passage during middle-day Wednesday while the GFS continues to to
show a faster arrival time Tuesday night. The timing of the front
would make a significant difference in the convective
probabilities, so have continued to forecast a blend with showers
and a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night, then a little
more convection and higher probability of precipitation for Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday,
guidance is in really good agreement with the pattern turning
quiet for the end of the week. Fairly zonal flow sets up aloft
with very little shortwave energy moving through. Surface high
pressure settles over the area so we should see a dry end to the
week with temperatures right around seasonal values, highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/...
through 18z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Upper disturbance moving through the region this afternoon/evening
will provide variable cloudiness though ceilings will remain VFR. A few
popup showers are also possible across northern terminals of
kslk/kpbg/kbtv but should be very light with no ceiling/visibility
restrictions expected. Southerly winds 5-10kts this afternoon go
light overnight, turning to the west/southwest Sunday except for
kpbg where direction will be southeast due to lake breeze
Outlook 18z Sunday through Thursday...
18z sun - 12z Tue: VFR. IFR fog possible at kmpv/kslk 08-12z Monday.
12z Tuesday - 00z Thu: VFR west/scattered MVFR thunderstorms and rain possible.
00z Thursday - 00z Fri: VFR. Early morning IFR fog possible at kmpv/kslk.
ktyx radar will be out of service until Tuesday or later.
equipment...weather forecast office btv