Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
336 PM EDT Friday Sep 19 2014
high pressure will continue to bring dry weather to the north
country tonight...but temperatures will not be as cold as last
night. Looking for warmer...windier...and wetter conditions this
weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 60s to lower
70s. Winds will be increasing during the day on Saturday with
gusts in the 30 to 40 miles per hour range. Eventually rain will move in late
Saturday night and especially throughout the day on Sunday with
widespread rain expected Sunday afternoon and night.
Near term /until 8 am Saturday morning/...
as of 336 PM EDT Friday...high pressure will slowly move east of
the area tonight. Still looking at generally clear skies with
light winds developing toward sunset. This will allow for
temperatures to fall...however readings will not be as cold as
Friday morning. Lows should generally be in the upper 30s to upper
40s. Some low level moisture over the middle-Atlantic region will try
and move up into the area after midnight tonight as low level
southerly flow strengthens.
Short term /8 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
as of 336 PM EDT Friday...pressure gradient will continue to
strengthen from the south and southwest during the day on
Saturday. While this will promote low level warm air
advection...breezy to windy conditions will develop. So while
highs will be in the middle 60s to the lower 70s...the winds will not
allow for it to feel that warm with gusts in the 25 to 35 miles per hour
range and even some 40 miles per hour gusts in the Saint Lawrence valley. Dry
weather is expected during the day on Saturday...but that will
change as an upper level trough of low pressure develops over the
upper Midwest. This feature will begin to sharpen up Saturday
night which will ultimately slow the onset of the precipitation
down. Can see a chance of showers late Saturday night over
northern New York...but the steadier and more widespread showers
will not move into the entire area until later Sunday morning
through Sunday night. The clouds and gusty winds Saturday night
will keep low temperatures well above normal...so it will not take
much on Sunday for highs to get right back into the middle 60s to
lower 70s. The upper trough will be slow to move east of the area
Sunday night...so showers should be fairly widespread Sunday
evening before gradually tapering off after midnight.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
as of 336 PM EDT Friday...northwest flow aloft will exist over the
area Monday and Tuesday. There may be some lingering showers
Monday morning...especially over Vermont...but drier weather is
expected to develop Monday afternoon through Tuesday. The
northwest flow aloft will result in below normal high
temperatures. Large upper level ridge builds into the region
Wednesday through Friday. This will result in a warming trend with
high temperatures at or above seasonal normals Thursday and
Friday. Dry weather will also exist Wednesday through Friday.
Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
through 18z Saturday...low level wind shear expected to develop
and persist between 04z and 12z with winds at 2000 feet increasing
from the southwest at 30-35 knots while surface winds remain at or
below 10 knots. After 12z...mixing develops and expect surface
wind gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range at all sites right through
18z. Otherwise...looking at VFR conditions through much of the
period. May see some broken ceilings at 3000 feet at kslk after
13z as moisture from the middle-Atlantic region streams northward
into the area.
Outlook 18z Saturday through Wednesday...
18z Saturday through 00z Wednesday...VFR-MVFR ceilings develop
Saturday afternoon and night with rain moving in...especially on
Sunday. Looking at MVFR ceilings and visibilities with the rain
moving in with precipitation coming to an end late Sunday
night...but MVFR ceilings persist. Eventually looking at a return
to VFR ceilings and visibilities Monday through Wednesday as high
pressure builds into the region.
strong south to southwest winds will develop after midnight tonight and
continue right into Sunday morning. Speeds will increase into the
20 to 30 knot range during this time period with gusts as high as
35 knots Saturday night and Sunday morning. Waves will build into
the 2 to 5 foot range making for rough boating conditions for a
good part of the weekend. As a result...a lake Wind Advisory is in
effect from midnight tonight right through Sunday morning.