Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
224 am EDT sun Aug 30 2015
north country temperatures will continue above seasonal averages
for late August and early September...with mainly dry weather
conditions expected over the next week. A weak upper trough
approaching from the Great Lakes will bring a period of mostly
cloudy conditions tonight...with just a chance for a few sprinkles
or light rain showers across northern areas. Otherwise...the trend
will be for a building upper level ridge across the northeastern
United States...with warming temperatures and a general
continuation of the dry weather pattern for Vermont and northern
Near term /until 7 am this morning/...
as of 113 am EDT Sunday...mostly virga with some isolated areas
reporting rain showers this morning, produced by a bit of weak
vorticity riding just ahead of a 700mb trough. Prevailing middle- upper
clouds should limit fog formation and also keep temperatures a bit
warmer...with lows mainly in the middle 50s to middle 60s.
Short term /7 am this morning through Monday night/...
as of 327 PM EDT Saturday...700-500mb trough weakens as it crosses
Vermont on Sunday with general height rises through the day. Will
see some scattered cumulus and high clouds during the daylight
hours...but anticipating dry weather and light winds. High
temperatures generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints
climbing a few degrees to the upper 50s.
A weak shortwave trough moving southeastward in northwesterly flow may bring a few
rain showers to northestern Vermont Monday afternoon...but otherwise the trend
for dry conditions and building middle-level heights/warming 850mb
temperatures will continue. 500mb ridge becomes quite
pronounced/amplified across the central Great Lakes region by 00z
Tuesday...per 12z GFS. In terms of temperatures...lows mainly upper
50s/lower 60s Sunday night (with patchy nocturnal fog)...with
highs reaching the low-middle 80s in most spots on Monday. Low
temperatures generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s once again for
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
as of 327 PM EDT Saturday...pretty quiet weather is expected for
the extended portion of the forecast. Large ridge of surface high
pressure will be over the region...with just a couple weak fronts
bringing just a slight chance or maybe a chance for showers.
Temperatures will continue to be warmer than seasonal normals as
this high pressure system remains in place.
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
through 06z Monday...VFR conditions expected through the period.
A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the region through the
period. Satellite loop early this morning showing a deck of middle
level cloudiness across the region. Expecting ceilings to be
mainly above 10000 feet. Surface winds will be 10 knots or less.
Outlook 06z Monday through Thursday...
06z Monday-00z Tuesday...VFR. Slight chance -shra over higher terrain
18z Monday-00z Tuesday.
00z Tue-Thursday...VFR. Periods early morning vlifr/IFR mainly at
kmpv and kslk. Slight chance of showers and MVFR late Wednesday