Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
423 am EDT Tuesday may 5 2015
a ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes
today and will remain over the north country through Friday with
fair and dry weather expected.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 423 am EDT Tuesday...rain showers with the cold front have
moved well east of the region with skies slowly clearing across
the region today. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s
to lower 70s today.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday/...
as of 423 am EDT Tuesday...a ridge of high pressure will be over
the region through Thursday with fair and dry weather expected.
Have gone a bit warmer than MOS guidance for maximum temperatures on
Wednesday and Thursday...given expected dry conditions and lack of
any significant rainfall during the past week. This will lead to
drier soil conditions...so have gone warmer than MOS guidance for
maximum temperatures. Also expecting minimum relative humidity's to
fall below 30 percent Wednesday afternoon and again on Thursday
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 351 am EDT Tuesday...above normal temperatures continue
through the extended portion of the forecast. Weather will be
quiet on Friday as surface high pressure off the coast of New
England will be main weather feature. There will be increasing
chances for showers over the weekend as a series of low pressure
systems cross north of our forecast area. Some differences between
the GFS and European model (ecmwf)...though not significant. Low passes north of
the area Saturday and cold front approaches from the northwest. A
second low passes even closer to our area on Sunday and front
remains nearly stationary to our northwest. Looks like it will be
a cloudy weekend with a few chances for some light rain
showers...though not seeing abundant low level moisture at this
time. Have slight chance for some thunder on Saturday as well.
Aviation /08z Tuesday through Saturday/...
through 06z Wednesday...mainly VFR conditions through the period.
Some lingering MVFR ceilings following departure of cold
front...but this should be fairly short lived and have covered it
with tempo groups. Drier air builds in Tuesday morning with just
scattered clouds expected most locations after 12z. Winds will
also become light.
Outlook 06z Wednesday through Sunday...
06z Wednesday-00z Saturday...VFR conditions with weak surface
high pressure prevailing for much of the period.
00z Saturday-00z Monday...mainly VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
as of 423 am EDT Tuesday...rainfall overnight was one tenth of an
inch or less...so the region remains quite dry. No rain is
forecast through Friday...so fuels will continue to dry out.
However...winds will remain below red flag warning criteria today
through Friday. Relative humidity values are expected to fall
below 30 percent later this afternoon. Relative humidity values
will also fall below 30 percent Wednesday afternoon and again on
Thus...fire weather concerns will continue to exist over the
entire area as 1 and 10 hour fuels are critically low. Not much in
the way of wind is expected Wednesday through Friday...but plenty
of sun...no precipitation...and further drying of the 1 and 10
hour fuels will keep fire weather concerns going for the middle to
latter part of this week.
as of 110 am EDT Tuesday...boaters should also keep in mind that
water temperatures remain cold - in the 40s. Swimming early in the
season is discouraged as immersion for prolonged periods of time
could produce hypothermia given these water temperatures.