Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
145 am EST Sat Jan 31 2015

Synopsis...
periods of snow will end tonight as low pressure moves away from
New England. Much colder temperatures and bitterly cold wind
chills will follow for tonight into Saturday. High pressure will
build in for the weekend with temperatures much below normal. Low
pressure will pass south of New England on Monday. Temperatures of
10 to 15 degrees below normal will persist into the middle of next
week.

&&

Near term /until 7 am this morning/...
as of 1212 am EST Saturday...wind chill warning and advisory
continues through 1 PM Saturday.

Surface observation show upslope snow continues over areas of higher
terrain. Infrared satellite and supported by surface obs, show clearing
skies in St. Lawrence Valley and near the international border of
northern New York. Adirondacks, Champlain Valley and areas east continue
to have moisture and therefore overcast skies which will be slower to
clear as middle-upper trough is becoming negatively tilted...slowing
the eastward progression of coastal low.

Wind forecast of 10 to 20 kts and temperature forecast still support
wind chill warning for northern Adirondacks and St. Lawrence
Valley...and advisory for Champlain Valley east. BUFKIT shows
potential for wind gusts around 25 kts in eastern Vermont in the
tighter pressure gradient and closer to the surface low. Iris
showing some areas in Vermont already seeing wind chills of -20f and
colder. Many surface observation across northern NY, mainly west of
Champlain Valley already showing temperatures below zero. So min
temperatures in the negative teens across northern New York and negative
single digits to near zero across Vermont look to be on track.

&&

Short term /7 am this morning through Sunday night/...
as of 335 PM EST Friday...wind chill warnings/advisories in
effect through midday Saturday.

Cold air advection continues Saturday morning with rather tight
pressure gradient between departing low and high pressure building
east from the Great Lakes region. 925 mb temperatures in the negative
teens to -20s and winds of 10-15 miles per hour with some higher gusts
continue. Maximum temperatures Saturday only in the single digits north and
lower teens south with wind chills 15 to 30 below through the
morning. Some morning clouds across northern Vermont...otherwise
plenty of sunshine courtesy of high pressure...with winds
subsiding in the afternoon.

As the surface ridge shrinks southward Saturday night...upper
wave and another cold front will bring clouds back into the region
along with the chance of snow showers...especially northern areas.
Temperatures will moderate a bit with lows ranging from negative
middle teens in the Northeast Kingdom to single numbers above zero in
southern Vermont. Return to northerly flow and cold advection will
keep temperatures from rising much on Sunday. Expect highs in the
single numbers north and teens south. Clouds return Sunday night
ahead of low pressure moving into the lower Ohio Valley. Have
introduced a chance of snow to southern areas...but better chances
for snow will lie further to the south. Min temperatures will be well
below zero across most of the area.

&&

Long term /Monday through Friday/...
as of 300 PM EST Friday...extended forecast will continue to
feature active weather and colder than normal temperatures. Low
pressure system passing to our south on Monday brings a chance for
some light snow to southern Vermont. Surface high will then ridge
into the area for Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday another
weaker low pressure system will pass to our north bringing another
chance for light snow showers to northern New York and Vermont. By
Friday morning another large ridge of high pressure will be
building into the eastern Continental U.S.. Wednesday will be the only day of
the extended portion of the forecast with a chance at normal
temperatures...the rest of the period will be cold.

&&

Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/...
through 06z Sunday...mainly VFR conditions expected through the
period as a ridge of high pressure builds east from the Great
Lakes. Some areas of MVFR ceilings early this morning across the
Adirondacks and Green Mountains with scattered light snow shower
activity. Expecting conditions over the mountains to become VFR by
15z Saturday.

Outlook 06z Sunday through Wednesday...

06z Sunday-12z Monday...VFR...with some areas of MVFR in scattered
light snow showers until 12z Sunday.

12z Monday-00z Tuesday...mainly VFR as system slides south of
region. Could see some light snow across southern Vermont from 12z
Monday through 00z Tuesday as low pressure area passes south of
New England.

00z Tuesday-12z Wednesday...VFR.

12z Wednesday-12z Thursday...some MVFR in snow showers with
clipper crossing the area.

&&

Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
Vermont...Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
vtz001>012-016>019.
New York...wind chill warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for nyz026-
027-029>031-034-087.
Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for nyz028-
035.

&&

$$
Synopsis...rjs
near term...kgm/Hanson
short term...rjs
long term...neiles
aviation...wgh/neiles

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations