Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1036 PM EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
a ridge of high pressure will move slowly east of the region
overnight. A weakening upper air disturbance over the Middle Atlantic
States will bring clouds and more humid conditions along with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region on Tuesday. A
cold front will move into the region Tuesday night bringing
showers and thunderstorms to the north country. A high pressure
area will build east from the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and
will remain over the north country for the remainder of the
week...bringing cooler and drier weather to the region.
Near term /until 7 am Tuesday morning/...
as of 1035 PM EDT Monday...tranquil conditions expected this
overnight with shortwave ridge in place north and east of middle-
upper level vorticity filament across the central Appalachians.
Richer moisture and potential development of low clouds will
advect north-northeastward from S-central New York and PA late tonight...and will
likely see some increasing clouds across the northern Adirondacks and
S-central Vermont toward daybreak. Otherwise...looking at a warm and
moderately humid night with lows generally in the 62-67f
range...with a few upper 50s in the normally cooler spots of the
northern Adirondacks and far northestern Vermont. Surface winds generally
light south/se...around 5 miles per hour. Not expecting much in the way of
fog potential...as it appears low temperatures will remain just above
crossover values and mean wind speeds surface-3kft are sufficient to
keep most locations somewhat mixed.
Short term /7 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night/...
as of 415 PM EDT Monday...a weakening upper air disturbance over
the Middle Atlantic States this afternoon will bring clouds and
increasing moisture into the region on Tuesday...with dew points
climbing into the middle to upper 60s. Surface based convective available potential energy climb to
500 to 1300 j/kg by late Tuesday afternoon. 0-6 km bulk shear over
the region is only 20-25 knots on Tuesday...with wet bulb zero
values around 12000 to 13000 feet...so not expecting any severe
thunderstorms on Tuesday. Storm Prediction Center only has the forecast area in a
general thunderstorm outlook for Tuesday...and this seems
reasonable. BUFKIT forecast soundings have precipitable water
values climbing to 1.5 to 2 inches on Tuesday and early Tuesday
night...so some locally heavy rainfall is possible. Have gone with
just chance probability of precipitation for Tuesday...as feel showers and thunderstorms
will be scattered in nature during the day on Tuesday. Have gone
with likely probability of precipitation for Tuesday as the cold front moves into the
12z model runs have trended faster with the movement of the cold
front...with any residual showers Wednesday morning across Vermont
and the Champlain Valley coming to an end by middle to late morning.
Models showing middle level dry slot over the region by 18z
Wednesday...so expecting a dry forecast from Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night as a ridge of high pressure builds east from
the Great Lakes.
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
as of 321 PM EDT Monday...a nice stretch of dry Summer conditions
is expected for the majority of the long term as the north country
is generally dominated by surface high pressure. Zonal flow across
the northern Continental U.S. Thursday becomes a bit more anti-cyclonic
moving into Friday and Saturday as deep middle-level subsidence sets
up over the southeast Continental U.S. With an upper ridge developing over
the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. This will result in
prevailing partly sunny/cloudy skies across the btv County Warning Area Thursday
through Saturday along with seasonal temperatures, highs in the
70s/80s and lows in the 50s/60s. By Sunday the ridge retrogrades
westward allowing more troughiness to set up across the northeast,
deepening southward into the middle-Atlantic on Monday. Several
pieces of embedded shortwave energy will renew chances for showers
and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and again on Monday with temperatures
remaining near normal.
Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/...
through 00z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected for the majority
of the time period. Partly-mostly clear skies will persist through
much of the evening/overnight hours...eventually giving way to
increasing clouds from the southwest Tuesday morning. Even with
increase of clouds and moisture...most sites will remain VFR.
However...some MVFR ceilings will likely develop at slk/rut for a
time after 12z Tuesday...before mixing and scattering out again
later Tuesday afternoon. Some scattered rain showers and perhaps a
brief thunderstorm also expected to develop across the region on
Tuesday...will show with vcsh for now. Light and locally variable
winds tonight become south/southwest on Tuesday from 10-15 knots
with gusts 15-22 knots.
Outlook 00z Wednesday through Saturday...
00z Wednesday - 18z Wed: VFR/MVFR. Periods of rain showers with chance thunderstorms and rain.
18z Wednesday - 00z Sun: VFR. Early morning IFR fog possible at
ktyx radar will be out of service until Tuesday or later.
equipment...weather forecast office btv